The US-EU Race for Leadership of S&T: Qualitative and Quantitative Indicators

Duane Shelton and Geoff Holdridge

WTEC, Inc.

Baltimore, Maryland, USA

To be presented at the Ninth International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, Beijing, August 25, 2003

Acknowledgements To:

And 400-plus expert panelists, thousands of foreign hosts.

Purpose of Paper

Both the US and the EU have goals for world leadership in S&T

Methods of evaluating leadershipQuantitative data on leadership -- from EU,

OECD, NSF, ISI, Eurostat, et al.Qualitative data on leadership -- from our own

WTEC studiesConclusions: Who is ahead, and what are the

trends?

I. US Goals for S&T LeadershipTop goal: “Maintaining world leadership in

science, mathematics, and engineering...” (President Truman, 1950)

“The United States is today the undisputed world leader in science and technology.” (U.S. National Academy of Sciences)

But, when we sent American peer reviewers abroad, one could indeed dispute.

Actually, Bush Administration has not yet made a global statement of S&T goals

EU Goals for S&T Leadership

• Make Europe the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010 (Lisbon Council 2000)

• Restructure R&D into a European Research Area (2000)

• Increase EU spending on R&D to 3% of GDP by 2010

• Framework Program 6 provides 17.5 billion Euros for 2002-2006

II. Quantitative Methods

Most input measures like total investments in R&D favor the U.S.

Here the focus will be on output indicators, which are a better measure of S&T leadership:

o Paperso Citationso Patentso New PhD productiono Nobel Prizeso High-tech market shareo Overall trade balance

Share of Publications in Physics

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pe

rce

nt

Sh

are China

US

EU

Japan

Output Indicator-1: Publications in the World’s Leading Journals

Source: ISI 2002. China = PRC + HK + Taiwan.

Scientific Fields Led Measured by Publications in World's Leading Journals

0

5

10

15

20

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2000

2001

Year

No

. F

ield

s L

ed

US

EU

AP

Source: ISI, 2002

EU Surges Ahead of the US in Publications

Who is in first Place in Publications in 2500 of the world's leading journals? Blank is US Leadership.1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Agricultural Science EU EU EU EU EUBiology & BioChemChemistry EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EUClinical Medicine EU EU EU EUComputer ScienceEcology & EnviromentEngineering EUGeoscience EU EUImmunologyMaterials Science EU EU AP AP APMath EU EU EU EUMicrobiology EU EU EU EU EUMolecular Bio & GeneticsMultidisciplinary EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EUNeurosciencePharmacology EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EUPhysics EU EU EU EU EU EU EU EUPlant & Animal Science EU EU EU EUPsych & PsychiatrySpace Science EU EU

Disciplines Led by the EU, U.S., and AP Region. Metric is papers in the world’s leading journals.

Data from ISI, which retains copyright.

Output Indicator-2: Relative ImpactsTechnical papers usually have a dozen or more

citations to other papers in their references or footnotes.

This method, originated by Eugene Garfield at ISI, counts citations to a particular paper from others. Influential papers have lots of such citations.

This parameter is often normalized by the average number of citations in a field or country to get the “relative impact” of:

o paper, o researcher, o institute, oro whole country

Switzerland leads the world; U. S. leads world in only 4 of 20 S&T fields on ISI CD

Relative Impact (24 Fields)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

EU

Germany

Netherlands

Switzerland

UK

US

US is Ahead of EU, Some Countries Are Gaining

0.0 50.0 100.0

U.S.

Japan

UK

Germany

France

Sweden

Italy

Spain

Finland

Taiwan

China

Denmark

Switz

Belgium

S. Korea

Austria

Ireland

% Foreign Citations

Use of International Literature by a Country’s Scientists

The U.S. figure is halfthe next lowest oneamong the 71 countries in the data. From the NSF S&E Indicators 2000.

But, Americans Tend to Cite Mostly American Papers

International Patents

0

20004000

6000

8000

1000012000

14000

16000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Tri

ad

ic P

ate

nt

Fa

mil

ies US

EU

Japan

These are inventions patented all three offices: U.S., EU and Japan. Source: (OECD, 2002). The U. S. leads the EU, but not by much.

Output Indicator-3: International Patents

S&E PhD Degrees

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

EU (Part)

U. S.

Source: NSB, 2002. EU (Part) includes only Germany, France, and the UK. With all EU countries, the European curve is far ahead at 39,021 in 1999.

Output Indicator-4: Production of S&E PhDs

Nationality of Nobelists -- By Residence

0123456789

US

EU

Output Indicator–5: Residence of Nobel Prize Winners in Science

(Physics, Chemistry and Medicine)

The U. S. is far ahead of the EU, but…

Nationality of Nobelists -- By Birthplace

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

US

EU

Birthplace of Nobel Prize Winners in Science

The EU is becoming more competitive in this metric.

20.4

U.S. High-Tech Trade Surplus

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$ B

illi

on

(C

urr

en

t)Output Indicator-6: High-Tech Trade Surplus and Market Share

International Market Share in Electronic Industry Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1994 1997 2000

Pe

rce

nt US

EU

Japan

International Market Share in Office Machinery and Computer Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1994 1997 2000

Pe

rce

nt US

EU

Japan

Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share;

Fields Where U.S. is Strong

International Market Share in Instruments Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1994 1997 2000

Pe

rce

nt US

EU

Japan

International Market Share in Aerospace Sector

05

101520253035404550

1994 1997 2000

Pe

rce

nt

US

EU

Output Indicator-6 High-Tech Market Share

Fields where EU is StrongInternational Market Share in Pharmaceutical Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1997 2000

US

EU

U.S. Merchandise Trade Surplus

-500

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$ B

illi

on

(C

urr

en

t)

ROW

NA

EU

PRC

Japan

In 2002 the largest deficit was with China ($103 billion). It was $82 billion with the EU.

Output Indicator-7 Overall International Trade Surplus, U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods was $470 Billion in 2002

US Trade Balance with EU

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$ B

illi

on

(C

urr

en

t)

US vs. EU in the International Market Place

A Knowledge-Based Indicator:

Internet Growth is Leveling Off

Since the EU goals include leading in knowledge-based economy, Internet usage is a relevant indicator

Internet Hosts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Mil

lio

ns

US

EU

U.S. Is Far Ahead, But Its Growth Stopped in 2002,

Rapid Increase Continues in EU

Data: www.isc.org

III. Qualitative Methods: ITRI International Technology Assessments

ITRI conducts public studies of S&T abroad using study tours by experts for:

o Assessment of status and trends relative to USo Technology transfero Finding opportunities for international

cooperationStarted by the US in 1983 when Japanese captured

high-tech international markets and increased investments in R&D

1 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Page 1 of 1 10/30/00

Form SponsorsCoalition.Sponsors Meeting

Recruit Chair -- Chair Meeting

Recruit Panel -- KickOff Meeting

Advance Work, Lit Search, et al.

Study Tour -- Business Meeting Abroad

Workshop (2 Days)Proceedings Report

Prepare pdf (Primary) Report and Post as Chapters Received (Review of Site Reports)

Edit Archival (Secondary)Paper Report

1/1 11/1

11/111/3011/30

11/30 1/16

1/16 3/14

3/153/27

5/145/26

5/25 7/26

7/26 10/28

Time Line for a WTEC Single-Area Study

An WTEC Delegation of American Engineers

But the U.S. is a very diverse place.

Sample WTEC Findings

Electronic Applications of Superconducting Materials: Japan Compared to U.S.

Japan U.S.Status Trend Status Trend

Materials Science of Thin HTS Films

Film "manufacture," large areas & numbers

RF and Microwave - device design

- device performance

- systems

SQUIDS - LTS sensors

- HTS sensors

- LTS systems

- HTS systems

Digital - LTS process

- LTS JJ memory

- cryo CMOS memory

- LTS logic

- LTS switches

- HTS junctions

Refrigeration - compressors

- expanders

- dewar package (RF)

- dewar package (SQUIDS)

- advanced concepts

R&D Field LeadsUS

PanelChairs

Year

Wireless communications Europe,Japan tieUS

Ephremides 2000

SiC electronics Europe Dmitriev 1999 Optical storage Japan Kryder

Esener1999

GaN electronics Japan Dmitriev 1998 Digital Library:Displays, virtual reality, digitization, IP policy, commercialization

Japan Reddy 1998

Electronic device applications of nanotechnology

JapanEurope

SiegelHu

1998

Launch technology for satellite communications

Europe PeltonMac Rae

1998

Refrigeration for superconductivity; materials science of thin HTS films; SQUID systems

Japan Rowell 1998

Polymer composites in civil engineering

Japan Karbhari 1998

Fields Which US Does Not Lead

R&D Field LeadsUS

PanelChairs

Year

Several mass market electronicpackaging techniques

Japan Kelly,Boulton

1997

Superconducting generators,Maglev applications, currentlimiters, certain wire materials

Japan Larbalestier 1997

Superconducting transformers Germany Larbalestier 1997Gravity casting, advancedmanufacturing, and processdevelopment in metal casting

Europe Flemings 1997

Rapid solidification, metalmatrix composites, pressure diecasting, environment, and energyin metal casting

Japan Flemings 1997

Consumer optoelectronics;optical packaging

Japan Forrest 1996

Electronics manufacturingtechnologies

Japan Kelly,Boulton

1995

Micropure water,hydrometallurgical separationtechnologies

Japan King 1993

Spacecraft antennas and powersystems

Europe Pelton,Edelson

1993

More Fields Not Led by the US

Report Title Number of EU Sites Visited

Number of Technical Subtopics Rated

Sub-topics where Europe Leading / Leading or Equal

to U.S.

% of Subtopics Where Europe Rated Equal to or

Ahead of U.S.

JTEC/WTEC Panel Report on Rapid Prototyping in Europe and Japan (3/97)

12 13 1 / 8 62%

WTEC Panel Report on Advanced Casting Technologies in Japan and Europe (3/97)

7 14 5 / 11 79%

WTEC Panel Report on Power Applications of Superconductivity in Japan and Germany (9/97)

5 (plus a review conference for the German program)

~15 1 / 3 20%

WTEC Panel Report on Nanostructure Science and Technology (12/98)

16 (plus workshops in Germany and Sweden covering an additional 13

sites)

6 1 / 4 67%

WTEC Panel Report on Global Satellite Communications Technology and Systems (12/98)

12 (plus a conference where other European

developments were discussed)

N.A. N.A.[1]  

Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries

Report Title Number of EU Sites Visited Number of Technical Subtopics Rated

Sub-topics where Europe Leading / Leading or Equal

to U.S.

% of Subtopics Where Europe Rated Equal to or

Ahead of U.S.

WTEC/MCC Strategic Technology Tour Report on MEMS and Microsystems in Europe (1/2000)

15 (plus a workshop reviewing other European

developments)

9 2 / 6 67%

WTEC Panel Report on Wireless Technologies and Information Networks (7/2000)

11 21 3 / 12 57%

WTEC Panel Report on Environmentally Benign Manufacturing (4/2001)

17 10 6 / 7 70%

WTEC Panel Report on Tissue Engineering Research (1/2002)

23 (plus a workshop covering 3 additional sites)

37 0 / 13[1] 35%

WTEC Panel Report on Applications of Molecular and Materials Modeling (1/2002)

25 26 5 / 15 58%

Total/Average   151 24 / 79 52%

 

Table II. Recent WTEC Assessments Covering EU Countries--Continued

Table I S&T Output Indicators

Indicator(Data Year)

U.S. EU Japan Source

1. Quantity of Papers (2001)

250,128 273,179 70,574 (ISI, 2002)

2. Quality of Papers: Relative Impacts (2001)

1.47 1.06 0.91 (ISI, 2002)

3. Triadic Patents, Market Share (1998)

36.03% 33.33% 25.36% (OECD, 2002)

4. S&E Ph.D. Production (1999)

25,953 39,021 

6,575 (NSB, 2002)

IV. Conclusions: Who is Leading Overall?

Indicator(Data Year)

U.S. EU Japan Source

5. S&T Graduates(1998)

169,311 225,796 25,021 (EC, 2002)

6. Nobel PrizesPhysicsChemistryMedicine(1950-2002)

 643874

 313338

 441

(Nobel Prize Internet Archive, 2003)

7. High-Tech Market Share (2000) Percent

AerospaceElectronicsOffice/ComputersPharmaceuticalsInstruments

   33.7923.6823.9913.1327.47

   33.516.3812.2532.8521.21

   1.5818.9414.683.2317.24

(OECD, 2002)

8. External Trade Balance as a percent of GDP (2001)

-3.2% 1.2% 

0.6% 

(Eurostat, 2002)

 

Table I S&T Output Indicators--Continued

1st 2nd Metric:

R&D InvestmentOverall

R&D InvestmentRelative to GDP

Papers

Impacts

Patents

Conclusion: Who leads the World, the U.S. or EU?

1st 2nd Metric:

Hi-Tech Markets

Trade Surplus

Expert Review*

Does the U.S. or EU lead in S&T? (More Metrics).

Thus, the results are mixed*The EU is not far behind either nation.

For more information:

Sleeping Tiger? Japan's Continuing Advances in S&T, R. D. Shelton and G. M. Holdridge, Conference on Japanese Information in Science, Technology, and Commerce, Library of Congress, Washington, July, 1997. http://www.itri.loyola.edu/papers/jistc797/welcome.htm

American Leadership of Science and Technology: Reality or Myth?, R. D. Shelton, J. B. Mooney and G. M. Holdridge, Science and Technology Indicators 2000, Leiden. http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/myth.pdf

WTEC Website http://www.wtec.org Shelton Website http://itri2.org/s/ Includes this paper in

text form and slideshow.

For more info http://itri2.org/ITRInews/