The United States Drought Monitor

How is it Made?

Brian Fuchs, Climatologist

National Drought Mitigation Center

School of Natural Resources

University of Nebraska-Lincoln

September 14-17, 2009

Bamako, Mali

The U.S. Drought MonitorSince 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have

produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal partners

How do we get there ???

Approaches to Drought Assessment

Single index or indicator (parameter)Multiple indices or indicatorsComposite Indicator

A partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and Regional Climate Centers (RCC) (authors)Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, State Climate Offices, federal/state agencies, etc.) (local experts)The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Pacific possessions

The Drought Monitor Concept

Drought Monitor AuthorsCurrently 10 authors in the United States split amongst all the agencies involved.1 Lead Author each week. This author is responsible for the production of the map and makes the final decision on all drought depictions on the map.Each author works a 2 week shift and then the responsibilities are assigned to the next author.

Original Objectives for the United States Drought Monitor

“Fujita-like” scale for Drought IntensityThe Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast!The Drought Monitor is NOT a drought

declaration!Identify drought impacts; Agricultural (A),

Hydrological (H), or both (AH)Assessment of current conditionsIncorporate local expert inputBeing as objective as possible

Original Objectives for the United States Drought Monitor

“Fujita-like” scale for Drought IntensityThe Drought Monitor is NOT a forecast!The Drought Monitor is NOT a drought

declaration!Identify drought impacts; Agricultural (A),

Hydrological (H), or both (AH)Assessment of current conditionsIncorporate local expert inputBeing as objective as possible

A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought mapTrying to capture these characteristics:

the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)spatial extent probability of occurrenceImpacts

Rates drought intensity byPercentile Rankings

The Drought Monitor Concept

U.S. Drought Monitor MapDrought Intensity Categories

D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile)

D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile)

D2 Drought Severe (10%tile)D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile)

D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

U.S. Drought Monitor MapDrought Intensity Categories

D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile)

D1 Drought Moderate (20%tile)

D2 Drought Severe (10%tile)D3 Drought Extreme (5%tile)

D4 Drought Exceptional (2%tile)

Key Variables For Monitoring Drought

climate datasoil moisturestream flowground waterreservoir and lake levelssnow packshort, medium, and long range forecastsvegetation health/stress and fire dangerDrought related Impactsother local drought indicators

Drought Monitor Timeline Day 1: Production of the next weekly map starts when the last map is published. In the United States, this is ThursdayDay 2: Data and information continues to be collected and analyzed while feeback from the current map is received. In the United States, this is on Friday.Days 3-4: Not much is done over the weekend. It is at the authors discretion to continue on Saturday/Sunday.Days 5-7: Production of the Drought Monitor takes place with data for the full week and feedback from local experts considered. In the United States, the data period for the current Drought Monitor is from 12 Z Tuesday to 12 Z Tuesday, with the map being released on Thursday.

Drought Monitor Production Drought Monitor Production (Period starts 12Z last Tuesday)(Period starts 12Z last Tuesday)

Monday (Day 5) (5 Days of data available)Draft map sent to local experts

Thursday (Day 1 for the next week)Final map & text released on NDMC Website

Tuesday (Day 6) (6 Days of data available)Local expert feedbackDraft map sent to local expertsDraft text sent to local experts

Wednesday (Day 7)(7 Days of data available;ending 12Z yesterday)Local expert feedback

Draft map(s) sent to local expertsDraft text(s) sent to local experts (Outlook)Final map and text sent to secured ftp server

USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model

Satellite Veg Health

SPI Drought Index USDA Soil Ratings

Principal Drought Monitor InputsPrincipal Drought Monitor Inputs

Palmer Drought Index

–

These are the Local Experts

USDM Listserve Subscribers(Local Experts)

U.S. Drought MonitorIntegrates KeyDrought Indicators:

– Palmer Drought Index–SPI–KBDI- Modeled Soil Moisture–7-Day Avg. Streamflow–Precipitation Anomalies

Growing Season:– Crop Moisture Index–Sat. Veg. Health Index- Soil Moisture- Mesonet data

In The West:– SWSI–Reservoir levels- Snowpack- Streamflow

Created in ArcGIS

Indices for“The West”

Objective Blends

Short-Term Blend

35% Palmer Z Index25% 3-Month Precip.20% 1-Month Precip.13% CPC Soil Model7% Palmer Drought

Index

Objective Blends

Long-Term Blend

25% Palmer Hydrological Index20% 24-Month Precip.20% 12-Month Precip.15% 6-Month Precip.10% 60-Month Precip.10% CPC Soil Model

Applied Climate InformationSystem (ACIS) is a key player…..

–CoCoRaHS

• Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NOAA DGT/State drought plan triggers

• ~3.75M page views and ~2M visitors/year

• Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet Media/ Network News/ CNN/NPR/etc.

• Presidential/Congressional briefings

• NIDIS portal/portlet

• A model of interagency/level collaboration

The Drought Monitor is widely used:

Some Examples of Decision Making Using the DM

USDA Dried Milk ProgramUSDA CRP Release hot spot triggerNumerous states use as a drought trigger (Governor’s declarations)USDA Livestock AssistanceIRS (tax deferral on livestock losses)2008 Farm Bill (NOT the only trigger)NWS Drought Information Statements (DGTs)

• USDM/NADM Forums and surveys• USDM/NADM Listservers (participatory)• USDA/RMA and other projects: workshops,

listening session, focus groups w/ producers/etc. (50 since 2003)

• Meetings w/ Media (face-to-face, conferences)• Meetings at annual conferences/trade shows/etc.• Meetings/briefings/workshops with/for various

federal/state/tribal officials

The NDMC (and DM authors) have engaged stakeholder communities :

Any Questions?

Thank you !Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center402-472-6775

bfuchs2@unl.edu

Any Questions ?