THE ULTIMATE HIGH GROUND: THE ULTIMATE HIGH GROUND: SPACE AND THE COLD WARSPACE AND THE COLD WAR

GERALD M. STEINBERGGERALD M. STEINBERGBAR ILAN UNIVERSITYBAR ILAN UNIVERSITYRAMAT GAN, ISRAELRAMAT GAN, ISRAEL

RAND’S “PROJECT 1947” RAND’S “PROJECT 1947” WORLD CIRCLING SPACESHIPWORLD CIRCLING SPACESHIP

MILITARY USES OF SPACEMILITARY USES OF SPACE

1) Imaging and Reconnaissance Satellites1) Imaging and Reconnaissance Satellites2) Communication Satellites2) Communication Satellites3) Navigation satellites (GPS)3) Navigation satellites (GPS)4) Space-based weapons4) Space-based weapons5) Anti-satellites5) Anti-satellites

RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES DURING THE COLD WARDURING THE COLD WAR

Corona (Keyhole) achievements:Corona (Keyhole) achievements:Catalog of Soviet air defense and antiballistic missile sitesCatalog of Soviet air defense and antiballistic missile sites

Nuclear weapons-related facilities and submarine bases Nuclear weapons-related facilities and submarine bases

Military installations in China and Eastern EuropeMilitary installations in China and Eastern Europe

Images of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and DimonaImages of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and Dimona

Helped NASA develop a safe means of recovering Helped NASA develop a safe means of recovering manned spacecraftmanned spacecraft

Imaging systems basis for cameras carried on Lunar Imaging systems basis for cameras carried on Lunar Orbiters (1966-67). Orbiters (1966-67).

SPACE IMAGING AND THE SPACE IMAGING AND THE “MISSILE GAP”“MISSILE GAP”

13 attempts failed; Discoverer 14 - Aug. 18, 1960 Photos of Soviet Plesetsk base: "It proved conclusively that the Soviets ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) arsenal did not number in the hundreds, as was widely feared, but rather amounted to somewhere between 25 and 50."

SATELLITES REPLACED U-2SATELLITES REPLACED U-2

Moscow and Severodinsk ShipyardMoscow and Severodinsk Shipyard

American reconnaissance satellite photo showing the American reconnaissance satellite photo showing the Missile Assembly Building at the Soviet Launch Missile Assembly Building at the Soviet Launch Complex J. This building was where the massive Soviet Complex J. This building was where the massive Soviet moon rocket was assembled. (credit: Dwayne A. Day)moon rocket was assembled. (credit: Dwayne A. Day)

Soviet Imaging and ReconsatsSoviet Imaging and Reconsats

Generic Cosmos series – 1962 - ? Generic Cosmos series – 1962 - ?

Used also to monitor China, Middle East Used also to monitor China, Middle East conflicts, other crisis regionsconflicts, other crisis regions

Zenith – (also designated as Cosmos) – Zenith – (also designated as Cosmos) – included ELINTincluded ELINT

RORSAT - Radar-equipped Ocean RORSAT - Radar-equipped Ocean Reconnaissance SATellite Reconnaissance SATellite

IMAGING SATELLITES: GREATEST IMAGING SATELLITES: GREATEST “SECRETS” OF THE COLD WAR“SECRETS” OF THE COLD WAR

No mention in official statements for many yearsNo mention in official statements for many years

Highly classified in CIA, NSA, NRO, & NIMAHighly classified in CIA, NSA, NRO, & NIMA

US officials would find open sources when US officials would find open sources when necessary necessary

First publication in 1981 due to security breechFirst publication in 1981 due to security breech

Later US declassification did not help stability, Later US declassification did not help stability, particularly in the Middle Eastparticularly in the Middle East

1963-1969: Evolution of tacit 1963-1969: Evolution of tacit agreement on anti-satellitesagreement on anti-satellites

ROLE OF SATELLITE IMAGING ROLE OF SATELLITE IMAGING IN STRATEGIC STABILITY AND IN STRATEGIC STABILITY AND

TREATY VERIFICATIONTREATY VERIFICATION

1972 SALT/ABM TREATIES CONFIRMED PRINCIPLE OF 1972 SALT/ABM TREATIES CONFIRMED PRINCIPLE OF “NON-INTERFERENCE WITH NATIONAL TECHINCAL “NON-INTERFERENCE WITH NATIONAL TECHINCAL MEANS OF VERIFICATION”MEANS OF VERIFICATION”

CAPABILITIES OF OTHER CAPABILITIES OF OTHER COUNTRIESCOUNTRIES

China China EU/NATO- Germany / France / UK / SpainEU/NATO- Germany / France / UK / SpainIndia India Israel Israel Japan Japan Iran?Iran?South Korea South Korea Egypt ?Egypt ?

U.S. PDD 23 (1994)U.S. PDD 23 (1994)

• CHANGING IN LICENSING PROCEDURES REFLECTED DOMINANCE OF COMMERCIAL ISSUES.

• SECURITY DIMENSION SECONDARY

• LIMITED AND STRENGTHENED IN SUBSEQUENT POLICY STATEMENTS AND LICENSING PROCEDURES (2003)

DUAL-USE ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION DUAL-USE ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGING SATELLITESIMAGING SATELLITES

Ikonos 2/15/2001 Coordinates:31 30 N, 34 35 E. 2 Meter

JERUSALEMJERUSALEM

VATICAN -- QUICKBIRDVATICAN -- QUICKBIRD

Largest UHR imaging market is Largest UHR imaging market is military/security sector (over 90%)military/security sector (over 90%)

Sales campaigns for UHR satellite Sales campaigns for UHR satellite systems and servicessystems and services emphasize emphasize military/security marketmilitary/security market

US--IKONOS, Quickbird, OrbImageUS--IKONOS, Quickbird, OrbImageFrance/EU: SPOT 5 2.5 m (Pan); HeliosFrance/EU: SPOT 5 2.5 m (Pan); HeliosIsrael- EROSIsrael- EROSCanada - Radarsat 2 Canada - Radarsat 2 Russia RESURS Russia RESURS India – IRSIndia – IRSJapan – ALOS Japan – ALOS Others Others

POTENTIAL SUPPLIERSPOTENTIAL SUPPLIERS

EROS IMAGE OF SEOULEROS IMAGE OF SEOUL

Natanz - Digital GlobalNatanz - Digital Global

Kalaye Electric - Near TeheranKalaye Electric - Near Teheran

YONGBYON, N. KOREAYONGBYON, N. KOREA

DECLASSIFIED U.S. IMAGEDECLASSIFIED U.S. IMAGE

NO-DONG LAUNCH SITENO-DONG LAUNCH SITE

IKONOS 1 M IMAGE

IKONOS IMAGE OF NODONG LAUNCH SITE (2)IKONOS IMAGE OF NODONG LAUNCH SITE (2)

FAS IMAGES OF CHINESE FAS IMAGES OF CHINESE AIR FORCE BASEAIR FORCE BASE

QUICKBIRD IMAGE OF QUICKBIRD IMAGE OF FALLUJA -- 2004FALLUJA -- 2004

GOOGLE EARTHGOOGLE EARTH

• TRANSPARENCY CAN BE USED TO TRANSPARENCY CAN BE USED TO MONITOR ARMS CONTROL MONITOR ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS IN STABLE REGION AGREEMENTS IN STABLE REGION

OROR

• CAN PROVIDE INTELLIGENCE CAN PROVIDE INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION FOR A FIRST STRIKE INFORMATION FOR A FIRST STRIKE AND OTHER AGGRESSIVE ACTION IN AND OTHER AGGRESSIVE ACTION IN UNSTABLE REGIONSUNSTABLE REGIONS

COLD WAR LESSONS: COLD WAR LESSONS: TRANSPARENCY = STABILITY?TRANSPARENCY = STABILITY?

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