The Tyranny of Measure Can composite indices control the trend of increasing labour flexibilization?...

The Tyranny of Measure Can composite indices control the trend

of increasing labour flexibilization?

Michael Taylor (PhD)National Observatory of

Athenspatternizer @gmail.com

“Geographies of Work and Uneven Development in Europe during the Crisis”

Athens, Greece, Thursday, April 30th 2015

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Composite Indicators are booming

Google Scholar Article Search:“Composite Indicator”

MICHAEL TAYLOR / National Observatory of Athens / patternizer AT gmail DOT com

• Credit Agency Sovereign Debt Ratings

• Global University Rankings• Euro Break-up Index• Euro Contagion Risk Index

Composite Indicators the “math problem”

• COMPOSITE INDICES are constructed from SUBJECTIVELY chosen FACTORS & AGGREGATIONS (weighted combinations)

• Composite indices often measure QUALITATIVE things that can not be directly measured

• Nevertheless we have become HEAVILY RELIANT on COMPOSITE INDICES because numbers are much easier to rank than concepts

rankings & ratings have become very influential


Composite Indicators the “Top Ten Fetish”

• We have evolved a BLINK MENTALITY to help us make rapid decisions

• This is why we respond strongly to “TOP TEN” lists • But, we end up PREFERENTIALLY-ATTACHING to already

highly ranked things this results in a POWER LAW of rankings or ratings

Rankings & Ratings feed (and are fed by) our “TOP TEN FETISH”


HIGHWAYS AIRPORTS

Rankings & Ratings tend to self-agree

MORE TRANSPARENCY and CRITIQUE is needed


July 2012

Moodys

S & P

Fitch

Ratings & Rankings are contraversial


“S & P downgrades Greece to CCC+ with negative outlook” (Guardian Online, 17 April 2015)

S & P also gave the Lehman Brothers an AAA ratingONE DAY BEFORE IT COLLAPSED

FLEXIBLE CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMEN

T (FCA) COMPOSITE INDICATOR

to assess flexibilization

(Stelios Gialis &Lila Leontidouwith thanks)


200 EU NUTS-II regionsEurostat & National Agencies

HYPOTHESIS flexibilization caused GDP collapse?i.e. did the Greek economy implode after 2008 because its economic

fabric was weakened by high flexible labour which disarmed the recovery?

FCA Composite Indicator statistical coherence


PCA at least one strong factor loading in 7 out of the 8 factors KEEP ALL FACTORS

CORRELATION ANALYSISmoderate correlation between FCA and the rate of unemployment (ROU) particularly in 2011 HIGH FLEXIBILIZATION

MODERATELY (to strongly) AFFECTS THE ROU

FCA Composite Indicator a view on the crisis


2008

2011

A WIDENING FLEXIBILIZATION GAPRegions of the EU “periphery” have moved towards higher flexibilization ranking places…

… while the regions of West-Central EU have moved towards the lowest flexibilization ranking places

GREECE IS THE EXREME CASEAll 13 Greek regions lie at the top-15 of the flexibilization ranking across the EU

Major parts of the EU (especially the South-Eastern ones) are being transformed into regions of poorly paid, very atypical work…

Zero Hour Contracts an alarm bell?


The Tyranny of Measure Can composite indices control the trend

of increasing labour flexibilization?

1) Composite indices are SUBJECTIVE and need to be TRANSPARENT

2) Ratings & rankings are FORCING AGENTS3) Flexibilization appears to WEAKEN THE ECONOMIC FABRIC and increase the impact of shocks on the rate of unemployment

“Geographies of Work and Uneven Development in Europe during the Crisis”

Athens, Greece, Thursday, April 30th 2015



Future trends? free will (still) exists

Thanks & welcomingyour thoughts& criticism

The Tyranny of Measure Can composite indices control the trend of increasing labour flexibilization?...

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