The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils...
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![Page 1: The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062714/56649d255503460f949fbb1a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
A presentation ofThe Tyndall Centre’s Approach to Integrated Modelling of Climate and Air Pollution Policies
Rachel Warren
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process (IIAP)
• Engages relevant stakeholders in co-production of knowledge on climate futures to inform planning, policy and assessment
• Consists of a Community IAM (CIAM) embedded within process of stakeholder interactions
• CIAM will enhance understanding of the implications of the human response to the climate change problem
• Will provide balanced approach by integrating together different disciplines including ancilliary benefits/ tradeoffs
• Will be multi-institutional• Will address wide range of evolving policy questions
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
A Community Integrated Assessment Model, CIAM
Four novel features…..• Distributed … the “Grid”• Flexible • Modular • Embedded in stakeholder review process
Other features• Multi-scale: regional models nested within global• Sophisticated uncertainty analysis• Long term view• Ancilliary benefits/tradeoffs
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Example Content of Potential Future CIAM EconomyEnergy
Social influencesTechnical progress
World TransportWorld Agriculture
Impact Systems may include :Global Ecosystem Module
Global Coastal ModuleHealth Module
Extreme Event Module Hydrological modelAgricultural model
Climate System MAGICC
Emissions of 6 COP Gases,SOx, NOx, PM
Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SOx, NOx, PM
adaptation
mitigation
Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change
Stakeholder influence/social decision making
S’ holderinfluence
climate feedbacks
interactions
Direct effects of land use change
on climate
SCENGEN downscaling
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
The Tyndall Centre’s Interactive Integrated Assessment Process:
Community Integrated Assessment Model: Current Status
Netherlands:ICISHealth module
UK: Tyndall CentreMAGICC-SCENGEN
Climate module(Norwich Germany:
Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM)DINAS-coastGlobal Ecosystem Module
UK: Tyndall EconomicsModule (Cambridge)
Emissions
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Air Pollution & Climate Links (1):Continental Scale, 50 year timescale
Overall Aim: Develop & implement model for scenario based estimation of future climate changes and LRTAP in Europe and their associated impacts on human health
Specifically:• Hold workshops between key IIASA staff and
Imperial College ICCEPT energy modellers• Construct a dynamic model of technical change and
fuel switching tailored to RAINS requirements
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
…..continental scale cont’d• Create interface between RAINS & CIAM using dynamic
model to simulate technological options & fuel switching• Use the combined system to create/analyse consistent
dynamic scenarios for emissions of GHGs, NOx, SO2, formation of tropospheric ozone
• Create a radiative forcing module for primary & secondary PM and ground level ozone
• Link in human health modules for temperature & air pollution
• Policy analysis: scenarios, co-benefits, valuation• Extend approach to RAINS PM and repeat• Extend approach to RAINS – Asia and repeat
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
UK scale
• CIAM’s economic model (E3MG, Cambridge Econometrics) to have UK module
• Currently developed for CO2 only, but can be adapted to other GHG and SO2, NOx, primary PM, etc
• Able to simulate consequences of a range of climate/non-climate policies for GHG and air pollutants
• UK scale models simulate impacts on human health
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Air Pollution & Climate Links (2):Regional/City Scale (PhD)
• Collate/develop emission inventories for greenhouse gas(es) in e.g. NW England, Norwich
• Construct/use decarbonisation scenarios for these regions/cities using output from Tyndall North and UEA “Community Carbon Reduction Project”
• Examine implications of these scenarios for NOx, SO2, primary PM
• Examine implications for human health• Examine effect of air pollution policies on GHGs
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The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
How to link scales?
• Using a nested hierarchy of scenarios
• Using CIAM structure to nest models using appropriate BCs
• Maximise consistency of approach to energy modelling at different scales
• Linkage of scales results in linkage of top-down and bottom-up modelling