The Ten Commandments The significance of the ten commandments to Christians today.
The Trend Commandments
Transcript of The Trend Commandments
The Trend
Commandments
squared
Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning | Instagram: @jengrsnap
David Yeend, VP/Planning Director | Twitter: @davidyeend
What isn’t a trend?
THINGS THAT ARE COOL, “TRENDY” OR HIPI
III
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A TRENDING TOPIC ON SOCIAL MEDIA
ESOTERIC FACTOIDS THAT MAKE YOU SOUND REALLY SMART
AN OBSERVATION MADE AT ONE DISCRETE MOMENTIN TIME
trend noun2Trend (n.) \‘trend\
A general direction of change; a way of behaving, proceeding, etc., that is developing and becoming more common
To show a tendency; a prevailing inclination or line of development
Merriam-Webster “Trend” 2014.
SOME MORESTELLAR
PREDICTIONSFROM THE
RECENT PAST
“The internet in 1996 will
catastrophically collapse.” - Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet,
3com founder, in 1995
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html
SOME MORESTELLAR
PREDICTIONSFROM THE
RECENT PAST
“'Smellyvision' ... chemicals
into our TVs so we can enjoy
the aromas." - The People newspaper, London, in 2000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html
SOME MORESTELLAR
PREDICTIONSFROM THE
RECENT PAST
“There’s no chance that the
iPhone is going to get any
significant market share.” - Steve Ballmer, in 2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictionshttp://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.htmlhttp://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.htmlhttp://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html
TREND-WATCHING IS ONLY
AS USEFUL AS YOUR WILLINGNESS
TO BE ACCOUNTABLE TO IT.
INGREDIENTS
FOR TREND-WATCHINGSUCCESS1 liberal helping of PATIENCE
3 cups of ADAPTABILITY
4 spoonfuls of INSIGHT
Dash of HUMILITY
And above all, the passage of TIME
Explain(why?)What are the reasons this pattern is occurring? How does it impact our business?
Should we adapt to it? How?
III
Observe(what?)
Start with an observation.
Or, better yet, a
business question.
I Evaluate(how?)
Do data points converge?
Do we see a consistent pattern over time?
Can we test our theory?
II
How Thou Shalt Trend Watch:-
Trend Watching Toolkit-
Observe(what?)
Start with an observation.
Or, better yet, a business question.
I • ONE-TIME SURVEYS• SHOPPER DATA• TREND REPORTS W/O CONTEXT• INDUSTRY REVIEWS• SOCIAL CONTENT • IN-STORE OBSERVATION• “SOME BLOGGER IN BROOKLYN”
Trend Watching Toolkit-
Do data points converge?
Do we see a consistent pattern over time?
Can we test our theory?
Evaluate(how?)
II• TRACKERS• SYNDICATED DATA (SIMMONS, MRI, &c.)• REPEATED SURVEYS• SECONDARY REPORTS WITH CONTEXT• YOY BUSINESS DATA (SALES, TRAFFIC,
CRM, MERCHANT INFO)• SOCIAL LISTENING
Qualitative for insight, quantitative for scale.
Trend Watching Toolkit-
What are the reasons this pattern is occurring?
How does it impact our business?
Should we adapt to it? How?
Explain(why?)
III
• EXPLORATORY QUAL• CROSS-FUNCTIONAL BRAINSTORMS• TEST INITIATIVES• DATA TRIANGULATION
Let’s Practice
I
ObserveII
EvaluateIII
Explain
“I didn’t see many kids in the store last weekend. What’s up with that?”
- Your CEO
“Our product mix is less appealing to kids / parents?”
2010 2011 2012 2013
40%
47%
Kids In The HH
“Our campaign message appeals to kids / parents less?”
“Our store experience is off-putting to shop with children?”
(“Sure, but overall sales are up! So what are we complaining about?”)
SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013
I
ObserveII
EvaluateIII
Explain
“Mobile commerce isdriving eCommerce.”
- Industry Report
“Tablet sales are putting more mCom devices in the world?”
“More eCom sites are becoming mobile-friendly?”
“People are getting more comfortable with mCom security?”
SOURCE: eMarketer 2014
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20
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20
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15
20
16
20
17
$13.57
$24.78
$41.68
$56.72
$75.00
$96.81
$113.57
7.0% 11.0% 16.0% 19.0% 22.0% 25.0% 17.3%
US Retail mCommerce Sales, 2011- 2017billions, and % of retail eCommerce sales
I
ObserveII
EvaluateIII
Explain
“I heard at some conference that digital
coupons are the future of retail.”
“Digital targeting makes offers more relevant than ever?”
“Real-time optimization makes digital perform better on the fly?”
“Postal workers are sabotaging us?”
2010 2011 2012 20130.2
0.26
Via Web/Email
0.23
2010 2011 2012 20130.54
0.61
Via Mail
0.575
*SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 ... “Mail” includes
newspaper inserts, magazine inserts, and all “DM”
Observe(what?)
I
Explain(why?)
III
Evaluate(how?)
II
How To Act On Trends(After all .... a trend is only as valuable as the action that follows it.)
Dedicate team and time to trend-watching
Proactively set aside budget to evaluate and optimize
Don’t be afraid to change course
Make it an ongoing priority
Educate internal stakeholders (and pick their brains)
Learn from your shopper data and your merchants
Rinse and repeat (a virtuous cycle)
So...What Are The Trend Commandments?
Thou shalt not point to a cool thing and call it a trend.
Thou shalt not spot “trends” in one moment alone.
Thou shalt have the patience to observe and evaluate how a trend
develops.
Thou shalt not proclaim a trend without considering its
implications.
Thou shalt build organizational support and understanding.
Thou shalt use thy data and shoppers to identify trends
proactively.
Thou shalt be flexible enough to adapt to trends.
Thou shalt not get discouraged if a trend doesn’t
pan out as expected.
Thou shalt make trend-watching an ongoing habit.
Thou shalt act on the trends that impact your business.
Thank You.
squared
www.22squared.com
@22squared
Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning
Instagram: @jengrsnap
David Yeend, VP/Planning Director
Twitter: @davidyeend