The transport system transition: consumers, innovations ... · 3 scenarios with different sales...
Transcript of The transport system transition: consumers, innovations ... · 3 scenarios with different sales...
The transport system transition: consumers, innovations and other
driversFrances Sprei, Assistant Professor
Physical Resource Theory
Energy and Environment
Chalmers
Fossil free road transport investigation
Fossil
Biofuels
Electricity
Personal vehicles Busses and city distribution trucks
Shar
e o
f ki
lom
eter
s
How big is the challenge? Some numbers
Total 4 870 000 cars in Sweden (june 2016)
Roughly 350 000 new cars per year
100% percent fossil free cars : 14 years to replace fleet
Studies on turnover rates
Western European fleet
3 scenarios with different sales penetration rates
2010 2015 2020
Less aggressive 17% 29% 39%
Moderatelyaggresive
17% 63% 78%
Very aggresive 17% 75% 97%
(Belzowski & McManus, 2010)
How fast can you turn over a fleet?
Western European fleet3 scenarios with different sales penetration rates
• Similar results for USA, Japan and other markets
2010 2015 2020 Fleet turned over by 2050
Less aggressive
17% 29% 39% 69%
Moderatelyaggresive
17% 63% 78% 83%
Veryaggresive
17% 75% 97% 90%
(Belzowski & McManus, 2010)
Share green vehicles and flex-fuel vehicles in Sweden
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Share E85 cars
Share green vehicles and flex-fuel vehicles in Sweden
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Share "green cars" Share E85 cars
Vehicles < 120 g CO2 /km
Volvo V50: 99 g CO2
/km
Volvo V70: 119 g CO2
/km
2007 2010
Ford Fiesta 119 g CO2 /km
Toyota Prius 104 g CO2 /km
(Sprei, 2013)
Sales of Volvo VX0
(Sprei, 2013)
Sales of E85 connected with monetary benefit
Source: Whitehead et al 2015
Drop- in fuels will play an important role to reach fossil fuel indepence
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390
Shar
e o
f ve
hic
les
Range Km
No adaptation
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per month
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390
Shar
e o
f ve
hic
les
Range Km
No adaptation Once per month
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per week
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390
Shar
e o
f ve
hic
les
Range Km
No adaptation Once per month Once per week
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
Electric vehicles of vehicles will need to be complemented
Use cases for different mobility services
(CAR 2016)
Number of licenses per age group (1000s)
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
18-24 25-64 65-
Summary
• Consumers can be ”unreliable” – drop-in fuels can play an importantrole
• Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be important - to reach fossil free so will biofuels
• While the role of the car may shift in the future cars will still be around
• Mobility as a service, electrification and biofuels will all be needed to reach independence from fossil fuels
EXTRA SLIDES