The transition from juvenile to adult criminal careers

Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

Background

• In 1994 Coumarelos followed up 33,900 juveniles until the age of 18 and found that 70 per cent only have one court appearance

• This finding has underpinned a policy of minimal intervention with first offenders

– However…..• Her study did not follow young offenders into

adulthood• It also suffered from sample bias (i.e.it had few

offenders whose first court appearance occurred when they were young)

The present study

• Identified all (5,476) juvenile offenders making their first court appearance in the NSW Children’s Court in 1995 (n.b.this is before the Young Offenders Act 1997)

• Followed them up for eight years (from first appearance in 1995 until 31st December 2003)

• Follow up was done using the NSW Reoffending Database which enables individual person’s court appearances to be linked

Research questions1. How many times do juvenile offenders re-offend?

2. What proportion re-offend as adults?

3. What proportion go on to receive a prison sentence from an adult court?

4. How long does it take them to re-offend

5. How do the answers to (1) to (4) vary by age at first court appearance, gender, ATSI status and offence?

How often do juveniles reoffend?

Recidivism among young offenders

• Of young people who appeared in the children’s court in 1995, within 8 years:– 68 % had had a subsequent court appearance– 43% had reappeared in a Children’s Court– 57% had appeared in an adult court

Persons with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, average number of reappearances in eight years

Av. reappearances

Age at first court appearance 10-14 5.2

15-16 3.4

17-18 2.4 p<0.0001

Indigenous status Non-Indigenous 2.8

Indigenous 8.3 p<0.0001

Gender Female 2.0

Male 3.8 p<0.0001

Principal offence at first Violent 3.5

appearance Property 3.6

Other 3.2 p<0.0001

Total 3.5

Figure 1: Number of reappearances predicted by negative binomial

regression: by Indigenous status, age at first CA and gender

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

10-14 years 15-16 years 17-18 years

Age at the first court appearance

Non-ATSI male

Non-ATSI female

ATSI female

ATSI male

Offence at first court appearance had no effect

What percentage reoffend as adults and end up in prison?

% adult court % adult prison

Age at first court app 10-14 58.1 17.8

15-16 57.2 13.1

17-18 57.1 p= 0.84 9.8 p<0.001

Indigenous status Non-Indigenous 52.6 9.7

Indigenous 90.5 p<0.001 36.1 p<0.001

Gender Female 38.4 4.9

Male 62.0 p<0.001 15.0 p<0.001

Offence at 1st app Violent 59.6 14.4

Property 56.6 13.7

Other 57.6 p=0.31 11.5 p=0.044

Total 57.4 13.0

Persons with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, % in adult court and adult prison within eight years

0

20

40

60

80

100

Non-ATSI ATSI

Female

Male

Age at first court appearance and offence had no effect

%

Figure 2: Risk of juvenile offenders appearing in adult court within 8 years as predicted by logistic regression: by

Indigenous status, age and gender

05

101520253035404550

10-14 years 15-16 years 17-18 years

Age at the first court appearance

Non-ATSI FemaleNon-ATSI male

ATSI female

ATSI male

%

Figure 3: Risk of juvenile offenders being sent to adult prison within 8 years as predicted by logistic regression:

by Indigenous status, age and gender

Do juvenile offending patterns influence adult reoffending and imprisonment?

• To examine the impact of juvenile offending on adult offending we need to give every offender an equal chance to acquire an adult conviction

• This means we can’t look at prior record and age at first

court appearance in the same analysis

• So to examine the effect of prior record we restrict our attention to the 1,311 juveniles who were 16 at their first court appearance

% adult court % adult prison

Indigenous status Non-Indigenous 53.1 9.5

Indigenous 93.2 p<0.001 33.3 p<0.001

Gender Female 36.1 4.9

Male 62.5 p<0.001 13.7 p<0.001

Reappearances in None 44.2 4.8

in Children’s Court One 63.6 12.5

Two or more 84.5 p<0.001 30.2 p<0.001

Custodial sentences None 55.9 10.3

in Children’s Court One or more 76.9 p<0.001 37.2 p<0.001

Total 57.1 11.9

16 year olds with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, % in adult court and adult prison within eight years

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 time 2 times 3+ times

No of children’s court appearances

Non-ATSI femaleNon-ATSI male

ATSI female

ATSI male%

Figure 4: Probability of 16 year old juvenile offenders appearing in adult court within 8 years: by children’s court appearances, Indigenous status, age and gender

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 time 2 times 3+ times

Number of Children’s Court appearances

Non-ATSI female

Non-ATSI male

ATSI female

ATSI male

%

Figure 5: Probability of 16 year old juvenile offenders being sent to adult prison within 8 years: by children’s court

appearances, Indigenous status, age and gender

How long do juvenile offenders take to re-offend?

Survival time by offence type

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Number of days to second court appearance

Pro

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Violent

Property

Other

Survival time by gender

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Number of days to second court appearance

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Females

Males

Survival time by age at first court appearance

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Number of days to second court appearance

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g 10 - 14 years

15 - 16 years

17 - 18 years

Survival time by ATSI status

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Number of days to second court appearance

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Non-indigenous

Summary of main findings

• Within 8 years of their first court appearance (CA)…– 68% of juvenile offenders reappear in court

– 43% reappear in the Children’s Court

– 57% reappear in an adult court

– 13% have been imprisoned by an adult court

• Amongst these offenders…– The average rate of reappearance is 3.5 over 8 yrs

– The average time to the second court appearance is 21 months

Summary of main findings (cont)

• However, within 8 years of their first CA…– 58% aged 10-14 and 90% of Indigenous offenders will

have re-appeared in an adult court– 18% aged 10-14 and 36% of Indigenous offenders will

have received a prison sentence (from an adult court)

• During this period…– Indigenous offenders will average 8 re-appearances– Offenders aged 10-14 will average 5 reappearances– Indigenous offenders aged 10-14 will average 12 re-

appearances

Policy implications• We need programs to reduce the risk of re-

offending amongst young people making their first appearance in court

• We need to focus these programs on Indigenous offenders and males who are aged 10-14 at their first court appearance

• It is hard to mount effective community-based interventions with young offenders, however, without involving their families and schools

• Whatever we do to reduce juvenile offending therefore requires a multi-agency approach