Law Evenings Seminar

The Top 10 Initiatives to

Reduce Crime

Professor Rick Sarre

School of Law

University of South Australia

Why is this issue so important and urgent?

AIC: costs of crime

Nearly $36 billion a year = 4.1% of GDP.

$21.25 billion are direct losses

• 40% is the result of fraud

• 10% associated with burglary

• 9% drug offences

• 8% arson

• 7% assault.

http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_community/communitycrime/costs.html

Why is this issue so important and urgent?

$15 billion are the costs associated with the processes of the justice

system.

Expenditures (2013-2014) have reached:

Police (not including AFP) $10.18 billion

Criminal courts $ 0.77 billion

Corrections $ 3.37 billion

TOTAL $15.0 billion p.a.

(Productivity Commission 2015)

Why is this issue so important and urgent?

Corrections

• Adult prison population in Australia has reached 34,000 inmates, a

rise of 10% over the previous year (ABS)

• 60% of these have been in prison prior to this period of

incarceration

• Currently $106,000 per prisoner per annum.

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NSW

VIC

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SA

WA

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Why is this issue so important and urgent in SA?

We are somewhat out of kilter with the rest of the country:

• Highest median aggregate sentence length of any Australian

jurisdiction (4.5 years)

• Highest % of unsentenced prisoners of any jurisdiction in Australia

(34%) (compare Australian 25%).

• Highest remand rate (other than NT) in the nation.

• One of the steepest upward climbs in terms of imprisonment rates

(from 124/100,000 in 2003 to 173/100,000 in 2012-13).

• Prisoner numbers increased by 9% in one year, 2012-2013 to 2,200.

• We used to have an historically low rate; now we have caught up to

the Australian rate!

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Why is this issue so important and urgent?

Eileen Baldry case studies include …

“Roy” IQ 70, personality disorder, cognitive dysfunction, history of

substance abuse, in custody as a juvenile, now aged 30

• 1400 days in prison

• 100 days in hospital

• 5000 methadone doses

• dozens of housing re-locations

• (ignoring the costs of his criminal behaviour)

Cost to the state: $1,958,291

Why is this issue so important and urgent?

Human rights issues

• Indigenous over-representation 2% population, 24% prison

population = 12 x.

• Indigenous victimisation is 5 x non-Indigenous victimisation

• Persons with a mental illness are disproportionately represented in

prison populations

• We all want to live in a safer society where there is less crime and

victimisation.

On any reading of the trends, the

current path of criminal justice is

unsustainable.

Is crime prevention policy easy?

No.

There are 3 reasons for this …

1. There are some hard choices to make: balancing cost, often

contradictory evidence-based research, and finding the right mix of

social crime prevention, situational crime prevention and deterrence

(justice) policies, not to forget popular sentiment (to name but a few

often conflicting pressures).

Is crime prevention policy easy?

No.

2. The causes of crime are many and varied, and depend upon the type

of crime:

• against the person

• property crime

• white collar crime

• organised crime

• cybercrime

• street crime

• family crime

• drug crime

• sexual (predatory) crime

• environmental crime

• crimes against children

• state crime

• terrorism

• vandalism

Is crime prevention policy easy?

No.

3. Different groups face different levels of risk of victimisation and re-

victimisation.

Some groups of people are far more likely to be victims of certain

offences than others

• young males as victims of violence

• the elderly as victims of financial scams

• people who are vulnerable because of disability are likely to become

victims and to be re-victimised (etc)

So we need to be very strategic with our prevention dollar.

So crime prevention is not easy, but nor is it

impossible…there are good stories to tell

• Good data sources (though not perfect)

• Sustained funding of research for 40 years

• Successes: crime in Western nations is on a downward trend

SAPOL: steady decline of 34.3% in crime reports to SA police from 2003-4 to 2012-13.

Across Australia there are declines across the board with a few exceptions …

Percentage change in police recorded crime

offences (Australia) 2001-11

• offences 2001-11

Source: Australian Institute of Criminology

But is the declining rate because of the

increase in prison and justice expenditures?

How do you determine which intervention was the key to success?

e.g. violent crime rates have been declining for 15 years in Western

nations. Credit has been claimed by everyone: crime prevention

specialists, police, churches, demographers, NRA, mass incarceration

advocates, restorative justice advocates, rehabilitation advocates,

economists looking at abortion law reform.

And how do you explain the rise in some crimes, like assaults, shoplifting

and sexual assault?

Remember also that crime drops have occurred in countries where the

rate of imprisonment has declined and police numbers remain stable.

I hope to throw some light on these

conundrums tonight…

Sources

Amongst others:

• Australian Institute of Criminology

• ANZSOC Adam Sutton Award for

Crime Prevention

• Campbell Collaboration

• University of Maryland

‘What Works?’ study

• Jill Dando Institute studies

• Washington State Institute for

Public Policy

• Miller and Aos studies (National

Bureau of Economic Research)

• SACOSS

• Peggy Hora Report (Thinker in

Residence)

• BOCSAR reports

• Pope Francis (speech to the 19th

International Congress of the

International Association of Penal

Law)

• University of Toronto Criminology

Highlights

• National Crime Prevention (Australia)

• Australian National Drug Strategy

• SAPOL Annual Reports

• Report on Government Services

Evaluative technique 1

I am relying upon randomized

experimentations: (David Weisburd,

Heather Strang, Larry Sherman, Peter

Grabosky et al)

If you have randomized trials with control

groups you eliminate rogue variables

Evaluative technique 2

But I am also happy to accept

‘interpretist’ / ‘realist’ evaluations

(championed by Nick Tilley and Ray

Pawson)

Randomized experiments are often too difficult (and $) to construct.

A ‘realist’ approach, in contrast, values engagement and seeks to

find what happens in different contexts. The people involved in the

programs, too, can provide valuable insights.

Caveats/cautions

• My top 10 choices include programs that have been evaluated by one

or the other approaches. I have not favoured one over the other.

• My top 10 have not been costed on per capita basis; the ranking is

not a $ for $ exercise. It can be done, but not by me.

• I have engaged in no surveying of colleagues other than to seek

ideas: these are simply my favourites and are mine alone.

• My favourites are not designed to tackle terrorism, genocide, religious

fanaticism, war crimes, environmental crime and other white collar

crime such as corporate manslaughter. These all require a much

more nuanced approach.

• I have decided against a Top 10 “What Doesn’t Work” because we

may find ourselves arguing here all night.

Parameters

What I am looking for What to try to avoid doing

Evidence-based (randomized, meta-analyses,

‘interpretist’ models) Accepting the “warm inner glow”

Focused on specific geographical places or

segments of society Labelling

Early intervention Net-widening

Using resources outside of the criminal justice

system

Ignoring the crucial role of police, courts and

corrections

Anything that lowers the rates of incarceration Losing the confidence of the public and victims

What the public/victims think is appropriate Vigilante justice

The Top 10 Initiatives to Reduce Crime

Corrections

Courts

Police

Situational

Social

#10

#9

#8

#7

#6

#5

#4

#3

#2 & #1

So what should governments do?

Here are my 10 best picks ….

# 10

Support pre- and post-release initiatives.

Desistance studies reveal prison itself is criminogenic.

60% of current Australian prisoners have been in prison before.

Fund prison-based adult education training

has been shown to reduce chances

of re-imprisonment.

• Pilot ‘leave-taking’ ceremonies

• Fund release support networks

Work of Mark Halsey (Flinders) and

Shadd Maruna (Belfast).

# 9 Deal with the health needs of prisoners.

Research into the life course pathways of 2,731 NSW prisoners has

isolated and highlighted the needs of those with mental health

disorders and cognitive disabilities (ABI and

fetal alcohol syndrome). Unless there is a whole

of government approach to mental health,

homelessness, out of home care and legal aid,

then vulnerable people will continue to be massively

over-represented in prison populations.

Eileen Baldry (et al)

# 8

Don’t lose faith in the courts as therapeutic agents.

‘Therapeutic Justice’ model. We can enhance the well-being of those

who come before the courts (victims, witnesses, accused persons) by

using knowledge from mental health and related disciplines to prevent

people from coming away worse for the experience.

Problem-solving courts: drug courts and mental health courts can have a

therapeutic effect. Courthouse designs are important in that process.

Aboriginal and tribal courts have shown that even if they

do not reduce Indigenous imprisonment, at the very

least they can assist offenders not to be harmed by

the process. (Moana Jackson).

# 7

Continue juvenile justice conferencing.

Randomized trial (‘RISE’) in Canberra

1995-2000 showed reductions in violence

for youths < 30. Reintegrative Shaming Experiments

were designed by John Braithwaite.

Since then, the evidence for restorative justice has

been a little mixed.

However (Kathy Daly);

• found high levels of victim satisfaction

• found that restorative justice programs work

at least as well as formal justice responses.

# 6

Strengthen procedural fairness in policing.

People are less likely to commit crime if they believe

that the police are behaving in a procedurally fair manner

and their practices are legitimate and not arbitrary (Tom Tyler).

We must work with police in framing our recruitment,

training and management. It is possible to shape police

culture towards these ends (Janet Chan).

# 5 Encourage public/private cooperation in situational crime

prevention

e.g. Strike Force Piccadilly

2005 ↑ ATM ram raids Greater Sydney Area

NSW Police, ABA, Shopping Centre Council of Australia,

CIT firms, ATM Industry Association formed alliance

Created: 1. priority alarm response system

2. situational prevention (specialist bollards)

3. risk assessment

4. shared intelligence reports

Impacts: all raids: ↓ 86% over 3 years

successful raids: ↓ 98% over 3 years

Tim Prenzler

# 4

Continue to fund the National Motor Vehicle Theft Reduction Program.

Comprehensive Auto-theft Research System (CARS) Ray Carroll

http://www.carsafe.com.au/.

60% reduction in thefts since 2001 (still 54,000 per year!)

Focus on 15-20 year olds (50%) and the education/

welfare/employment of the ‘at risk’ population, along with a

‘target-hardening’ of cars.

# 3

Continue the Pathways to Prevention program

Designed to install protective factors (positive interactions) at crucial developmental transition points in a child’s life;

• around birth

• at the commencement of primary school

• the move to high school

• move into work

• marriage and partnerships

All part of a strategy to strengthen a community’s

capacity to agree on goals for child well-being and

mobilise their efforts to address them.

Communities for Children Program Ross Homel

# 2

Act to prevent child abuse and neglect, and restrict the availability of alcohol.

Don Weatherburn (BOCSAR) matching study

Children with substantiated records of physical abuse and neglect

are more likely to be arrested later in childhood. Abuse and neglect

are significantly associated with alcohol and drug dependence.

Since 50% of all police detainees attribute

their offending to drugs or alcohol, these preventive

initiatives must include reducing the availability of

packaged wine and placing greater restrictions on licenses

in selected neighbourhoods, which have both been shown

to contribute to reductions in crimes of violence.

# 1

Fund prenatal and infancy home visiting by nurses.

A randomized trial (David Olds et al) monitored the progress of

children born to mothers with low psychological resources and who

received specialist services.

By age 12, the program reduced children’s use of

substances and mental health problems and improved

their academic achievement.

This was the number 1 cost-effective crime

prevention strategy identified in the University of

Maryland study post-1996. Stockholm Prize winner 2008.

Problem

Governments don’t always listen to these

ideas, but rather have agendas of their own.

Not as bad as this …

but problematic nevertheless…

What have current Australian governments touted in recent years?

• Reversal of presumption of bail

• Longer sentences • One punch laws • Abolition of suspended

sentences • Pink prison uniforms • Mandatory sentencing

(imprisonment) • Anti-bikie laws

• Closing of specialist courts • Shutting down research

agencies (threat) • Stop and frisk laws • Sex offender registers • Boot camps • Tighter control of parole • ‘3 strikes’ laws • Curfews • Rack ‘em and pack ‘em

Did someone say, “Soft on crime”?

Moving towards problem-solving: a start

Commendably John Rau has created, as Minister for Justice Reform, a

“transforming criminal justice” program (2015).

• Lower rates of remand in custody

• Strengthen diversion

• Get early resolution of matters & cut trial delays

• Have stronger data collections

• Meet $ efficiencies and KPIs

I commend the aforementioned Top 10 and other prophylactic measures to his committee as additional ‘tools’ in their ‘kitbag’ to bring about the reforms needed.

Summary • The costs of crime are enormous and unsustainable

• The causes of crime are complex; hence prevention is a complex issue

too, but not insurmountable.

• The role of government is important, not only for what it can do, but for

what it should avoid doing.

• There are some good stories to tell, especially around community

capacity-building, and developmental approaches.

• Crime prevention specialists have a proven track record for theorizing,

commissioning good research, interpreting the data, suggesting preferred

responses and allocating appropriate resources.

• Governments and their policy-makers should listen to them, and act

accordingly, rather than going off on evidence-bereft flights of fancy.

Some key references Andrews, G, Baldry, E, ‘Mental Health Frequent Presenters’, in Chappell, D (ed), Policing and the Mentally Ill:

International perspectives, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL (2013).

Baldry, E, 'Complex needs and the justice system', in Chamberlain, C, Johnson, G, Robinson, C (ed.),

Homelessness in Australia: an introduction, UNSW Press, Sydney (2014).

Cherney, A and Fitzgerald, R, ‘Finding and keeping a job: the value and meaning of employment for

parolees. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology (2014 , in press)

Currie, E The Roots of Danger: Violent Crime in Global Perspective Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

(2008).

Head, B, Ferguson, M, Cherney, A and Boreham, P, ‘Are policy-makers interested in social research?

Exploring the sources and uses of valued information among public servants in Australia’, Policy and

Society, 33: 89-101 (2014).

Heseltine, K, Day, A, and Sarre, R, ‘Prison-Based Correctional Offender Rehabilitation Programs: The 2009

National Picture in Australia’ Research and Public Policy Series,112, Canberra: AIC (2011).

Maruna, S ‘Re-entry as a rite of passage’. Punishment and Society, 13(1), 3-28 (2011).

Payne, J and Gaffney, A ‘How much crime is drug or alcohol related? Self-reported attributions of police

detainees’ Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice , no. 439, Canberra: Australian Institute of

Criminology, (2012).

Prenzler, T, ‘Strike Force Piccadilly: A Public-Private Partnership to Stop ATM Ram Raids’, Policing: An

International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 32(2), 209-225 (2009).

Some key references Prenzler, T, ‘Strike Force Piccadilly and ATM Security: A Follow Up Study’, Policing: A Journal of Policy and

Practice, 5(3), 236-247 (2011).

Ransley, J, ‘If you want to cut crime, you can’t ignore the evidence’ The Conversation 19/2/15 (2015).

Sarre, R, ‘We get the crime we deserve: Exploring the political disconnect in crime policy’, James Cook

University Law Journal, 18, 144-161 (2011).

Sarre, R and Vernon, A, ‘Access to safe justice in Australian courts: Some reflections upon intelligence,

design and process, The International Journal for Crime, Justice and Social Democracy, 2(2), 133-147

(2013).

Thompson, C, Stewart, S, Allard, T, Chrzanowski, A Luker, C, and Sveticic, J, ‘Examining adult-onset

offending: A case for adult cautioning, Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 488, Canberra:

AIC (2014)

Tonry, M. ‘Making Peace, Not Desert’, Criminology and Public Policy, 10(3), 637-649, (2011).

Tubex, H, Brown, D, Sarre, R and Gelb, K ‘Penal diversity within Australia’, Punishment and Society,

(forthcoming, 2015).

Tyler, T, Why People Obey the Law, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ, (2006).

Weatherburn, D and Lind, B, ‘Social and Economic Stress, Child Neglect and Juvenile Delinquency, NSW

Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Sydney (1997).

Wilkinson, R and Pickett, K The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger , Allen Lane,

London (2009).

Law Evenings Seminar #2

Wednesday 14 April

The moral and emotional

landscape of jury service

Associate Professor Julia Davis

School of Law

University of South Australia