The Threats of Populism: Europe’s Reluctant Radicals
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THE THREATS OF POPULISM: EUROPE’S RELUCTANT RADICALSMarley MorrisSt Antony’s College, Oxford12 November 2013
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Leaving aside the committed radicals, we focused on:
The reluctant radicals who have cast a vote for a populist party but do not ‘feel close’ to those parties (much less than committed core voters do).
The potential radicals who have not cast a vote for a populist party but agree with their views.
This enables us to map the softer outer-core of support for these parties.
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Why the reluctant radicals?• The uncommitted, soft supporters of right-wing populism• Two reasons to focus on them.• (1) They make up a significant proportion of the right-wing
populist electorate
German
y
Denmark
Finlan
d
France
Hunga
ry
Netherl
ands
Norway
Sweden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Committed radicalReluctant radicalPotential radicalMainstream
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Beyond the headlines• Anti-Europeanism, anti-elitism, or anti-immigration views
are hallmarks of right-wing populist politics, but tackling them generically is both ethically (for progressives) and practically difficult.
• Understanding – and acting on – the specific historical, cultural and emotional springs of the surface mobilisation against Europe or immigration would allow policy-makers to make a more appealing and, above all, more implementable offer to the reluctant radicals.
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France: the disconnected radical• Low levels of trust in people• Low levels of interest in politics• Reside in peri-urban areas
05
101520253035
Reluctant radicalAll
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The Netherlands: the nostalgic radical• Social conservatism in a new guise?• Deep distrust in modern politics• Nostalgia for an older form of consensus
Very much Fairly much Not so much No trust at all0
10
20
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Reluctant radicalAll
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Finland: The alienated radical• Thirty-three per cent say their main reason for voting for
the True Finns was to generate change.• Working class and middle-aged• A crisis of modernity and masculinity?
18–24 25–34 35–49 50–64 65+0
5
10
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40
Reluctant radicalAll
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The prospects for populism
Image: Ssolbergj
GUE-NGL
S & D
Greens / EFAALDE
EPP
ECR
EFD
Non-Attached
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Policy-making in the European ParliamentAverage number of reports per MEP for each of the political groups
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Voting powerPercentage of votes won by each of the political groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)
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Voting coalitionsEFD matching other European party groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)
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SpeechmakingAverage numbers of questions and speeches per MEP
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Conflicted Politicians
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Group CohesionComparative cohesion rates of political groups in the European Parliament (14.07.09—14.07.12)
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The price of nationalism?
Stigmatisation
Conflicting nationalisms
Ideological divergence
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Scenarios for the next Parliament
UKIPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyLega NordOrder and JusticeIndependent Greeks
Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖ
Europe of Freedom and Democracy
A new populist group
Non-Attached Members
JobbikMS5
Image: Remi Noyon, Niccolò Caranti
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Scenarios for the next Parliament
Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖLega Nord
A new populist group
Non-Attached Members
JobbikUKIPMS5Finns PartyDanish People’s Party
Image: Remi Noyon, Jennifer Jane Mills
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Scenarios for the next Parliament
Image: Niccolò Caranti
UKIPFinns PartyDanish People’s PartyLega NordOrder and JusticeIndependent Greeks
Europe of Freedom and Democracy
Non-Attached Members
JobbikMS5Front NationalPVVVlaams BelangFPÖSweden Democrats
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Thank you!
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