The territorial implications of demographic change in the North Sea Region –

scope for a transnational planning approach?

Stefanie Dühr, Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands

• Territorial impacts of demographic change and migration

• Context of reform of EU Cohesion Policy and Objective 3 on territorial cooperation

• What is the appropriate level for spatial planning responses?

• What are the spatial development impacts from demographic change at the transnational level?

• How can spatial planning / territorial cooperation at transnational level help to respond to challenges arising from the changing demographic context?

• How can spatial impacts from demographic change be incorporated into the new transnational cooperation programmes?

The issues

• Transnationality means having a territorial effect in more than one country and requiring co-operation across national borders for effective action

• Study for the ‘Spatial Agenda’ for the INTERREG IIIB North Sea Region

• Review of empirical evidence on the spatial impacts of demographic change and migration

• Analysis of policy documents and studies at EU, transnational, national and regional levels

• Workshop with 36 participants from different European countries, different levels of government and sectors (June 2005)

• Telephone interviews with 26 key actors and decision-makers in the North Sea Region (I/2005)

• Drafting of the new territorial co-operation programme for North-West Europe (2007-2013)

Framework and methodology

The North Sea Region context

Diverse and complex demographic pattern in the NSR

Shared problems • polarisation tendencies and

depopulation of rural areas• falling and ageing populations• fall in working age population

and rising dependency ratios• challenge for economic

competitiveness objective• rising international immigration

Internal versus external linkages

Population density (inh./sq km)Change in population

gainers

losers

• Lisbon-Gothenburg Strategy

• EU Green Paper on Economic Migration

• EU Green Paper on Demographic Change

• National and regional plans only recently more attention to certain aspects of demographic change

• Many relevant studies on demographic change in NSR countries

• Management of growth versus coordination of decline

Demographic change and planning policy

Natural population growth

• Provision of affordable housing relevant to stimulate fertility rates

Population structure and ageing

• Responding to spatial challenges from an ageing population (e.g. housing, transport and leisure needs)

• Spatial challenges arising from changing household structure (increasing number of (smaller) households)

Key spatial challenges from demographic change

Fertility rates 1975-2003

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

USAEU25

Belgium

Denmar

k

Germ

any

Nether

lands

Norway

Sweden UK

1975

1985

1995

2003

Migration

• Spatial challenges from retirement migration and other impacts in coastal zones

• Spatial challenges in peripheral and old-industrial areas affected by depopulation

• Polarisation effect of major global cities on migration movements

• Economic and social integration of international migrants (housing and services needs)

Key spatial challenges from demographic change

• No specific agenda for action on demography and spatial development for the North Sea transnational area:

• NSR theme for challenges from depopulation and polarisation?

• International migration etc. more appropriately considered at EU level

• Boundary of NSR and linkages with other regions

• But: demographic change important theme in new transnational territorial cooperation programmes (NWE, NSR)

Scope for transnational cooperation?

Source: ESPON 1.1.4

• Scope for exchange of experience and best practice

• Addressing sectoral policy fragmentation and improving coordination of the spatial impacts of demographic change

• Understanding the impact of previous planning policies on demographic change and polarisation tendencies

• Addressing imbalances in housing demand and supply

• Developing new planning approaches / tools / adaptation strategies for depopulation

• Enhancing tools for long-range planning, incl. improved data monitoring and analysis

• Integration of immigrants and the impact of planning policies on the destinations and integration of immigrants

• The role of environmental and spatial development factors in attracting and retaining highly qualified labour

• Addressing retirement migration and second homes

Scope for transnational cooperation?

• The definition of transnational cooperation areas for the consideration of major spatial development impacts

• Demographic issues as crucial component of housing, transport, tourism etc.

• The multi-disciplinary nature of demographic change, and the need for better cross-sectoral coordination

• Different timescales for the political electorate and the medium- to long-term effects of demographic change

• Need for more and coordinated analysis into the spatial development effects from demographic change

• Spatial planning not pro-active intervention in demographic change; emphasis is on anticipating and responding to effects

Concluding remarks

Thank you for your attention.

Email: S.Duhr@fm.ru.nl