Renewable Energy and Mini Grids in East Africa

The Technical Challenges and Opportunities for

Developers, Investors and Off-Takers

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Mini-Grids

— Mini Grid = Micro Grid

— Electricity distribution systems containing loads and distributed energy

resources, (such as distributed generators, storage devices, or controllable loads)

that can be operated in a controlled, coordinated way either while connected

to the main power network or while islanded. (CIGRE)

— Typically includes a mix of

dispatchable and non-dispatchable

power sources.

— Health & Safety of new electricity

users of utmost importance.

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Mini-Grids

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Global Market Trends

— Value of the market - $12 billion in 2016 and is estimated to reach $23

billion in 2021 (GlobalData)

— Mini Grids with renewables generation sources are becoming a go-to

option for project developers.

— US Mini Grid market:

— 39% of the global market share during 2016

— Forecasting 52% by 2021

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Why Mini-Grids and Renewables in Sub-Saharan Africa?

— Rural energy access remains a

major challenge

— 1.5 billion people without access to

electricity

— 80% in rural areas

— Large proportion across the African

continent

— Centralised electricity generation

— Inequity in access is prevalent

even where supply has been

achieved

IEA, 2012

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The Benefits of Mini-Grids

— Power connectivity to remote populations at lower cost

— Fast deployment

— Tailor design of Mini-Grid to local requirements

— Enhanced reliability of supply and resilience

— Integration of local / renewable generation sources

— Better environmental performance

— Trading / market access

—Grid-tied: market participation, aggregation of

resources, Mini Grid as a virtual power plant

— Islanded: community energy / markets

— Power quality

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Technical Challenges

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Energy Storage and Mini-Grids

— Energy storage acts as a balancing mechanism

— Whole range of benefits including:

— Energy management and reserves

— Avoids / defers reinforcement

— Improves power quality and reliability

— Improves system control

— Range of energy storage technologies:

— Batteries

— Pumped storage

— Hydrogen energy storage

— Thermal (molten salt)

— Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)

— High power flywheels

— High power supercapacitors

Photo courtesy of Anesco

Spector, 2016

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Commercial Challenges

— Upfront capital investment. Main cost components:

— Generating plant

— Energy storage

— Switchgear protection and transformers

— Communication and control system

— Site engineering and construction cost

— Cost of Mini-Grid technology is reducing

— Cost of renewable generation and energy

storage technologies is reducing

— Increasing reliability leading to reduced

OPEX

— New payment innovations – pay-as-you-go

and mobile money

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Regulatory Challenges

—Rural electrification agendas now feature extensively across Sub-

Saharan Africa

—Streamline regulations - unclear which regulations apply

—Electricity distribution concessions

—Cost reflective tariffs

—Plan for future growth

ACORE, 2015

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Sizing and Designing a Mini-Grid

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Load Study

— Objective – 20 year power projected daily and annual hourly load

profile data

— Input for the preliminary design of a solar PV, battery, and diesel Mini

Grid for the island

— Annual power and energy forecast, daily load profile

— Number of customers per customer class

— Sales per customer class

— Analysis of the impact of Distributed Generation additions and Energy

Efficiency programmes

— Challenges for forecasting load using standard

regression analysis

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Individual Approach to Load Forecast

Detailed site survey

Establishing work programme and development of tools

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Present and Future Conditions

- Identifying main driver for load increase:

1. Development on the island

2. Population growth

3. Main load types

4. New electrical appliances in the houses (upgrade)

5. Occupancy rates

Present:

Future:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

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New Infrastructure Development

— STREET LIGHTS - Island length

1.7 km, One pole at 8m, LED

15W each.

— DESALINATION PLANT- 100

litres / day / person, the required

plant should be run by 15 kW to

20 kW motor

— WATER PRESSURE PUMP-

Based on the length of the island

the required size of the pump is

between 5kW and 10kW

— MARKET/SHOP constant load

level when the shop is open (9h-

21h) and when closed

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Load Forecast Results

Annual growth 11.7% to 14.7%

2.4% 1.3%

Very high annual growthi within first 1 to 5 years

Yearly forecast for 20 years – for understanding the size for electrical installations/system

Detailed daily diagrams – for dimensioning the Mini Grid (the size of solar, wind, storage, diesel)

Typical working day: Typical weekend: Yearly Peak:

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National Department of Tourism, South Africa

— National Department of Tourism of South Africa – renewable energy Mini Grid projects at state-

owned tourism attractions:

— Robben Island, Western Cape Province

(667 kWp)

— Hantam National Botanical Garden,

Western Cape Province (HNBG) (2.5

kWp)

— Karoo Desert National Botanical Garden,

Northern Cape Province (KNBG) (52.9

kWp)

— Free State National Botanical Garden,

Free State Province (FNBG) (52.9 kWp)