The T hird T HORPEX I nternational S cience S ymposium Monterey, California, September 2009 Jule Charney The NWP vision 1904 The GARP Vision 1969 Vilhelm Bjerknes Pushing back the limits of predictability Increasing the accuracy of high-impact weather forecasts The Vision Pushing back the limits of predictability Increasing the accuracy of high-impact weather forecasts Observations Prediction Assimilation Diagnosis Societal Applications Theory Monterey Beach Hotel, Monterey CA, 2002 THORPEX International Science Plan Version 3: March 2004 Melvyn A. Shapiro and Alan J. Thorpe Co-Chairs: THORPEX International Science Steering Committee THORPEX is an international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts. These improvements will lead to substantial benefits for humanity as we respond to the weather related challenges of the 21 st century. Advances in Weather Forecasts Weather Prediction (T1279, ~15 km) compared with Satellite Observations ECMWF predictions and Meteosat observations Martin Miller (ECMWF) Fig. 5: The capability of high-resolution regional forecast models to predict the intensity of high-impact weather events, such as the 29 August 2005 landfall of hurricane Katrina, over New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, (Davis et al. 2008). NCAR-WRF simulation of Hurricane Katrina precipitation radar reflectivity computed 3-days before landfall (left), compared with radar observations of the actual landfall (right). Within the next decade, global data-assimilation and deterministic and ensemble medium-range to seasonal prediction systems will advance to such high- resolution capabilities. Fig. 5: The capability of high-resolution regional forecast models to predict the intensity of high-impact weather events, such as the 29 August 2005 landfall of hurricane Katrina, over New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, (Davis et al. 2008). NCAR-WRF simulation of Hurricane Katrina precipitation radar reflectivity computed 3-days before landfall (left), compared with radar observations of the actual landfall (right). Within the next decade, global data-assimilation and deterministic and ensemble medium-range to seasonal prediction systems will advance to such high- resolution capabilities. Bob, Is there life beyond THORPEX? Joan, The Answer Is Blowin In The Wind. The Times They Are A-Changing. Document 22: Task CL White Paper prepared under Co-Leadership of WWRP and WCRP WEATHERCLIMATE O 14 DaysCenturies Seamless Prediction The Socio-Economic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Document 22: Task CL White Paper prepared under Co-Leadership of [ GEO-IV November 2007 Group on Earth Observations Summit, Cape Town, SA, 2007 The Full Picture, Group on Earth Observations Summit, Cape Town, SA, 2007, Tudor Rose, pp An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the 21st Century Melvyn Shapiro, Jagadish Shukla, Michel Bland, John Church, Kevin Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Brian Hoskins, Guy Brasseur, Mike Wallace, Gordon McBean, Antonio Busalacchi, Ghassem Asrar, David Rogers, Gilbert Brunet, Leonard Barrie, David Parsons, David Burridge, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Martin Miller, Philippe Bougeault, Zoltan Toth, Jerald Meehl, Randall Dole, Mitch Moncrieff, Herv Le Treut, Alberto Troccoli, Tim Palmer, Jochem Marotzke, John Mitchell, Adrian Simmons, Brian Mills, ystein Hov, Haraldur Olafsson, Takeshi Enomoto, Jim Caughey, Louis Uccellini and Arlene Lang An Earth-system prediction initiative for the 21 st century. M. A. Shapiro, et al. Addressing the complexity of the Earth system. Carlos Nobre, et al. Climate prediction from weeks to decades in the 21st century: towards a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities. J. Shukla, et al. Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: the advancement of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. Gilbert Brunet, et al. A unified modeling approach to climate prediction systems. James Hurell, et al. The multi-scale organization of tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation. Mitch Moncrieff, et al. Submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, available at the WMO Desk, WCC3 A holistic approach Earth-system sciences, and mitigation and adaptation strategies require a suite of diagnostic and prediction models integrated over all spatial and temporal scales. The proposed approach is: Spatially and Temporally Continuous, spanning highly-localized cloud systems to global circulations, from minutes to millennia; linking mesoscale weather life cycles and climate variability and change. Integrated Across the Disciplines of physics, mathematics, chemistry, social and decision sciences, and their Earth-system elements. Coordinated and Supported across academic institutions, government research and service agencies, private enterprise providers, hazard risk-reduction and adaptation agencies, and humanitarian organizations. Bridges Political Boundaries, municipalities to nations to the world. Socioeconomic and environmental requirements play a leading role in the design and implementation of a new generation of science-based global to regional early warning and planning systems. In short, it is no longer a weather problem or climate problem, or an atmosphere, ocean, land surface, chemistry or biology problem it is all of these, and more. It requires addressing the interactions among the different Earth-system components, including the interactions with and implications for humankind. Saharan dust storms associated with high-wind events in the lee of the Haggar, Tibesti, and Ajr mountains: numerical simulations and observations HOGGAR TIBESTI AJR ATLAS Bodl Depression Mediterranean Hoggar Ajr Tibesti Bodl Rosby wave dispersion on the extratropical baroclinic wave guide TIBESTI Bodl Depression, ~200 m ~3,000 m Tibetsi Tibesti _ Yellow good Dark blue Ci contamination Light blue still under investigation Data Assimilation of Aerosol-Drift Winds 09:30 UTC 9 March 2006 Tibesti Bodl Depression MODIS The Amazon rainforest in South America relies on dust transported by winds from the Sahara desert in North Africa to replenish the nutrients and minerals in its soils. For the first time, scientists have proved that over half the dust transported to the Amazon comes from one location in the Sahara, the Bodele depression, even though it makes up less than 1% of the Sahara. Without this supply of dust to replenish the nutrients in its soils, the Amazon could become a wet desert. The work is reported today in the first edition of the Institute of Physics open-access journal, Environmental Research Letters. Dr Ilan Koren TOMS Satellite Image 77 Dust 79 Meningitis is endemic in much of the arid Sahel region of West Africa DAKAR, 22 Mar 2006 (IRIN) - Across Africas arid meningitis belt that runs from Senegal in the west to Ethiopia in the east, thousands have fallen ill and 580 have died from the meningitis virus which hits the region with lethal effect every dry season. Global Societies will Expected Outcomes Projections of the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate Tropical Cyclones Winter Storms Floods Heat Waves High-Resolution Models for weather, the Complex Earth-system, climate Variability and Change European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts: Water-vapor analysis at ~25-km resolution, 16 July-30 November 2005 Advanced Data Assimilation Early-Warning Systems to Reduce Vulnerability to famine, drought pestilence, disease and hazardous air quality Impact Assessments of proposed geo-engineering interventions to counter climate change Solar shield may save the planet Roger Angel Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections Paul Crutzen Advocacy WMO is implementing the concepts outlined in this article. In June 2008, the Executive Council of WMO commissioned a Task Team On Research Aspects Of An Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water And Environmental Prediction Framework to prepare a strategy focusing on strengthening prediction research and related scientific assessments in support of enhanced climate, weather, water and environmental services in the next decade. GEO as an international coordination framework across disciplines and observational, prediction, and information systems that will advocate for advancing climate, weather, water and Earth-system prediction. GEO aims to implement the GEO Work Plan, and several tasks relevant to this Initiative, e.g. Task CL-09-01: Environmental Information for Decision-making, Risk Management and Adaptation. The engagement of ICSU, through its co-sponsorship of GCOS and WCRP and its academic constituency. . The Grand Challenge As nations, we have collaborated to advance global observing systems, weather forecasting, climate prediction, communication networks, and emergency preparedness and response. We must now extend this collaboration to embrace the full Earth-system and the next frontier of socioeconomic and environmental applications of our science. The Earth-science community and its supporting organizations are poised for the discoveries ahead and the opportunity to make their knowledge available to users and decision makers. This is our grand challenge. Addressing this challenge will provide deliverables that are at the forefront of meeting the needs of global societies and the destiny of our planet. I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human welfare. Its wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity. Walter Orr Roberts NCAR