The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry€¦ · The Status and Outlook for the...

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David E. Carlson March 14, 2006 The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry

Transcript of The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry€¦ · The Status and Outlook for the...

Page 1: The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry€¦ · The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry. Outline of the Talk ¾The PV Market ¾The Major Players ¾Different

David E. CarlsonMarch 14, 2006

The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry

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Outline of the Talk

The PV Market

The Major Players

Different Types of Solar Cells

Field Installations

Performance and Cost

Projections for the Future of Photovoltaics

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Historical Average Selling Price and Volume

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PV Shipments for Different Technologies

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The Major Players

SharpKyoceraBP SolarQ-CellsMitsubishiSolarWorldSanyoSchott SolarIsofotonMotechSuntech

United SolarKanekaFuji ElectricSharpMitsubisihiSchott Solar

Shell SolarShowa ShellWurth SolarDayStar

First SolarAntec Solar

Crystalline Si Amorphous Si CIGS CdTe

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Operation of a Solar Cell

Photons are absorbed in the semiconductor resulting in the creation of electron-hole pairs

The photo-generated electron-hole pairs are physically separated at the p/n junction

The photogenerated carriers are collected by the contacts on the front and rear of the cell

The photocurrent can be delivered to an external load at an applied voltage to perform useful work

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Operation of a Solar Cell

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Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells

Buriedcontact

Back contact

n+

n++ P

The BP Solar Saturn solar cell utilizes a laser-grooved, buried front contact

The aluminum back contact is heated to form a back surface field, which reduces surface recombination

Best lab efficiency = 20.1%

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Sanyo HIT Solar Cell

The HIT cell utilizes amorphous Si intrinsic layers (~ 5 nm) as super-passivation layers. The cell is symmetric except for the a-Si p+ emitter layer (~ 10 nm) on the front and the a-Si n+ contact layer (~ 15 nm) on the rear. The transparent electrodes are sputter-deposited indium-tin-oxide (ITO)

Best lab efficiency = 21.6% (open-circuit voltages > 700 mV)

Screen-printed Ag collection grids

Textured n-type CZ Si (200 μm thick)

Screen-printed Ag collection grids

Textured n-type CZ Si (200 μm thick)

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SunPower Back Contact Solar Cell

The SunPower cell has all its electrical contacts on the rear surface of the cell

The diffusion lengths > twice the cell thickness

Best lab efficiency = 21.6%

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Amorphous Silicon Triple-Junction Cell

United Solar OvonicUnited Solar Ovonic

United Solar has demonstrated a stable efficiency of 13% in the lab

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Cadmium Telluride Solar Cells

The CdS/CdTe heterojunction solar cell is typically formed by using a chemical bath technique to deposit the CdS and close space vacuum sublimation to deposit the CdTe

Toxicity of Cd is perceived by some to be an issue

Best lab efficiency = 16.5%

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Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide Cell

NREL has obtained an efficiency of 19.5% in the lab

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Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

Dye-sensitized solar cells utilize a few monolayers of ruthenium-based dye molecules on titanium oxide particles in an electrolyte

Best lab efficiency = 11%

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Spectrolab’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell

In July 2005, Spectrolab reported the highest efficiency solar cell to date, a 39.0% triple-junction cell operating at 236 suns

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Conversion Efficiencies vs. Time (NREL)Ef

ficien

cy (%

)

Universityof Maine

Boeing

Boeing

Boeing

BoeingARCO

NREL

Boeing

Euro-CIS

200019951990198519801975

NREL/Spectrolab

NRELNREL

JapanEnergy

Spire

No. CarolinaState University

Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Crystalline Si CellsSingle crystalMulticrystallineThin Film TechnologiesCu(In,Ga)Se2CdTeAmorphous Si:H (stabilized)Emerging PVDye cells Organic cells(various technologies)

Varian

RCA

Solarex

UNSW

UNSW

ARCO

UNSWUNSW

UNSWSpire Stanford

Westing-house

UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp NREL

Spectrolab

NREL

Matsushita

Monosolar Kodak

Kodak

AMETEK Photon Energy

UniversitySo. Florida

NREL

NREL

NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2

14x concentration

NREL

United Solar

United Solar

RCA

RCARCA

RCA RCARCA

Spectrolab

Solarex12

8

4

0

16

20

24

28

32

36

University ofLausanne

University ofLausanne

Siemens

2005

Kodak* UCSB*Cambridge*

Groningen

University LinzBerkeley*

Princeton*

UniversityLinz*

NREL

*Not NREL-confirmed

40NREL

NREL

Effic

iency

(%)

Universityof Maine

Boeing

Boeing

Boeing

BoeingARCO

NREL

Boeing

Euro-CIS

200019951990198519801975

NREL/Spectrolab

NRELNREL

JapanEnergy

Spire

No. CarolinaState University

Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Crystalline Si CellsSingle crystalMulticrystallineThin Film TechnologiesCu(In,Ga)Se2CdTeAmorphous Si:H (stabilized)Emerging PVDye cells Organic cells(various technologies)

Varian

RCA

Solarex

UNSW

UNSW

ARCO

UNSWUNSW

UNSWSpire Stanford

Westing-house

UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp NREL

Spectrolab

NREL

Matsushita

Monosolar Kodak

Kodak

AMETEK Photon Energy

UniversitySo. Florida

NREL

NREL

NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2

14x concentration

NREL

United Solar

United Solar

RCA

RCARCA

RCA RCARCA

Spectrolab

Solarex12

8

4

0

16

20

24

28

32

36

University ofLausanne

University ofLausanne

Siemens

2005

Kodak* UCSB*Cambridge*

Groningen

University LinzBerkeley*

Princeton*

UniversityLinz*

NREL

*Not NREL-confirmed

40NREL

NREL

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PV Module Conversion Efficiencies

Modules Lab

Dye-sensitized solar cells 3 – 5% 11%

Amorphous silicon (multijunction) 6 - 8% 13.2%

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) thin film 8 - 10% 16.5%

Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenium (CIGS) 9 - 11% 19.5%

Multicrystalline or polycrystalline silicon 12 - 15% 20.3%

Monocrystalline silicon 14 - 16% 21.6%

High performance monocrystalline silicon 16 - 18% 24.7%

Triple-junction (GaInP/GaAs/Ge) cell (236 suns) - 39.0%

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Paths to Ultra-High Conversion Efficiencies

Multijunction solar cells

Multiple absorption path solar cells (impact ionization, multiple exciton generation )

Multiple energy level solar cells (localized levels or intermediate bands)

Multiple spectrum solar cells (up and down conversion of photons)

Multiple temperature solar cells (utilization of hot carriers)

All these approaches have theoretical efficiency limits > 60%.

The theoretical efficiency limit is > 80% for multijunction cells utilizing other high efficiency approaches.

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Remote Telecommunication Site

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Remote Application: Village Power

Philippines Village

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PV Concentrator System

A concentrator system using Fresnel lenses (Amonix)

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Roof-Mounted PV Arrays

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United Solar – Coca Cola Bottling Plant (LA)

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BP Solar Roof-Mounted PV Array

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Building-Integrated PV

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Building PV Curtain Wall

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Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University

Building-Integrated PV

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Building-Integrated PV

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BIPV and Plug-Power Hybrids

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DOE Targets for PV System Costs

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PV Electricity Costs in Europe

PV electricity is close to being competitive in Spain today

PV electricity is also close to grid parity today in Japan

In the next few decades PV should become cost competitive in many parts of the world

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PV Module Price Experience Curve

At current growth rates, PV module prices should fall below $1/Wp by 2027

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Forecast for PV Electricity Production

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Solar Energy – the Long-Term Solution?

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change

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Projections for the Future of PV

Module efficiencies are likely to exceed 20% in the next decade

The levelized cost of PV electricity may be about 6 ¢/kWh by 2020

Disruptive technologies with theoretical limits of >60% may emerge in the next few decades

At current growth rates, the cumulative PV production would be ~36 GWp by 2020 and 4 TWp by 2040

3 TWp of solar electricity will reduce carbon emissions by about 1 Gton per year (7 Gtons of carbon were emitted as CO2 in 2000)

Thus, by about 2035 PV could be producing about 10% of the world’s electricity and start to play a major role in reducing CO2 emissions