THE STATE OF THE STATE CONSTITUTION

 

Political Science 103A, Lecture #2

California’s Year of Reform?

How Well (or Poorly) Does California Government Perform Today? Conventional Commentary and Academic

Research How Should it be Fixed?

What’s the Right Process? Proposed Solutions UC San Diego’s Role in Reform

Our Twin Challenges

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Polarization Score in Session

Smoothed Polarization SeriesPer Capita State Spending

(LAO)

Partisan Polarization in Legislature

Judging California Today California’s Two Governments

Legislation: A majoritarian system Budget and Taxes: A consensus (2/3)

system shifting half way to a majoritarian system

Two Ways to Evaluate Government Efficiency: How quickly are issues resolved? Responsiveness: Does the final decision

reflect what voters want?

Legislative Efficiency:Does Polarization Predict Gridlock?

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Smoothed Polarization Series

Gridlock Percentage

Legislative Representation(Best in the Nation)

From analysis of 39 policy areas by Justin Phillips and Jeff Lax (Columbia University)

Budget Efficiency:Delays No Matter Who is in Charge

20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989198819871986198519841983198219811980197919781977197619751974197319721971197019691968196719661965196419631962196119601959195819571956195519541953195219511950

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100Days early/late

June 15th deadline*

Dept. of Finance data courtesy of Eric McGhee

Budget Representation Recipe for Solving Deficits: Leans right

lately Long tradition of mixing cuts with tax

increases 2009, 2011 red budgets in a blue state

Only Tax Increases Mix of Spending Cuts and Tax Increases

Only Through Spending Cuts

4%

57%

31%

"How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap?"

(Field Poll, January 2010)

Are We in a Constitutional Crisis?

Partisan Polarization is Here to Stay Sacramento’s divide reflects demographic trends

across the state, voters matching ideology to party (not just gerrymander)

Our Two Governments Perform Differently Our majoritarian legislative process works better than

the budget, but is far from perfect

Popular Consensus on Problems, Less Consensus on Solutions

Three Routes to Reform

Constitutional Convention

Constitutional Conventions:A Risky Route

Legislative Revision

Piecemeal Reform: Constitutional Amendments from Citizens or Legislators

An Appetite for Constitutional Reform

October, 2009 Field Poll on Reform 51-38% favor “fundamental changes” to

constitution 51-39% prefer convention to legislative

commission 32% would be “very likely” to serve as

delegates 48-42% think illegal immigration should be

part of constitutional debate

But few specific reforms have majority support, and “Repair California” convention call fizzled

So, What Reforms do Voters Want? Traditional Polls Ask Voters for Quick

Judgments About Complex Issues (October 2009 Field Poll): 23% support for flattening California’s

income tax 23% support for creating a new type of

sales tax 27% support for allowing legislature to

raise taxes with a majority rather than 2/3 vote

37% support for limiting Prop. 13 protections to houses

Alternative Approach:Get California Together in a Room

June 2011 “deliberative poll” on constitutional reform in California

400 randomly sampled voters spent a weekend together in Torrance after doing “homework”

Polled on Friday and Sunday

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32%

52%46% 45%

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Friday Support

Sunday Support

Deliberation Led to Consensus

Piecemeal Reform Round 1 (2010)

June 2010 Primary

Prop. 14 -- PASSED Creates a “top-two”

primary designed to open the door to legislative moderation

Prop. 15 -- FAILED

Allows a pilot program of public financing in Secretary of State elections, funded by tax on lobbyists

November 2010 General

Vote for Budget Changes from 2/3 to 50%+1 (P)

Vote For Fees Changes from 50%+1 to 2/3 (P)

Protect City Finances (P) Expand Citizens Redistricting

Commission to Congress (P) Eliminate Citizens

Redistricting Commission (F)

Piecemeal Reform, Round Two (2012)

June 2012 Primary

Prop. 28 -- Amends term limits

by allowing legislators to spend up to 12 years in one house of state legislature

Does not apply to today’s legislators

Passed 61-39%

November 2012 General Election

Series of budget reforms from deliberative poll, backed by California Forward and Think Long (Prop. 31) FAILED

Competing tax increases from Governor PASSED and Molly Munger FAILED (30 and 38)

Redistricting referendum (40) FAILED

Limits on corporate giving, union fundraising and giving (32) FAILED

CaliforniaChoices.org website viewed by 100,000 Californians for an average of 5 minutes in the weeks leading up to the November, 2012 election