The state of science in the Arab region:

Progress or Regress

Adnan Badran TWAS-ARO 5th Annual Meeting of

Academy of Sciences Alexandria, Egypt

21-22 December, 2009

Reference: Badran & Zoubi, UNESCO World Science report 2010: Arab States

1

Manpower: Arabs are young 1. 30% less than 15 years old.

2. 60% less than 25 years old

3. Arab population 318 millions.

100 million new jobs to be created by 2020 (WB 2007)

2

Opportunity & Challenge:

1. Opportunity to stimulate growth Invest in education. Invest in Science. Entrepreneurship. Brain–intensive. K–economy.

2. Challenge to provide infrastructure. Schooling & health. Housing & services. Combat unemployment & poverty.

3. Disaster New jobs for 100 millions by 2020. 40% of arab youth not employed.

3

Governance: Rule of Law (Kaufmann 2008)

1. > 75th percentile on Global scale: Qatar

2. 65th percentile: Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain.

3. 60th percentile: Jordan, Tunisia, S.A.

4. 50th percentile: Egypt, Morocco.

5. < 40th percentile: remaining Arab countries with lowest Iraq.

4

Innovation: global competitiveness index, (GCI)

1. Tunisia highest ranking Arab country. 31st out of 128 economies (GCI) 2. Qatar 61st, UAE 72nd , Jordan 75th , Egypt 8th

(World Economic forum 2007)

3. Science parks: Bahrain, Morocco, Qatar. S.A, Tunisia, UAE.

4. El-Hassan science corridor (Jordan), Mubarak science park (Egypt)

5

Science & Technology Policy (STP) for sustainable development:

1. UN World Summit 2002 identified five priorities:

water, energy, health, agriculture, biodiversity (WEHAB)

2. UN MDGs priorities to be reached by 2015:

on poverty, education, gender, child mortality, health, environment.

3. Arab summit priorities (2009):

water, energy, food, agriculture.

6

Investment in science: R&D in the Arab region 1. Arab GERD of GDP is (0.1-1.0%), as compared to 2.5% of GDP in

advanced countries.

2. Qatar is lifting GERD to 2.8% of GDP over 5 years (Shobaky 2007).

3. Egypt climbed to 0.24% of GDP (2008) & to raise to 1% over 5 years.

4. Tunisia is leading Arabs: 1% of GDP on R&D & to raise to 1.25% by 2009.

5. Jordan's new law of 1% net profit of public shareholding companies for R & D & 5% of all public & private universities budget annually to fund R&D.

6. Kuwait to increase current 0.2% (2008) expenditure on R&D to 1% of GDP (2014).

7. Arab private sector expenditure on R&D among 131 countries: Tunisia 36th, Qatar & UAE 42th, Jordan 96th , Syria 108th, Bahrain 119th .

7

R&D expenditure in the Arab region

8

Source: for Egypt: UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007/08; for Algeria, lebanon, Mauritania, Oman, Qatar, Saleh (2008) for Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates: Roland (2008) Draft regional report on Arab countries: study on national research systems. A Meta-Review presented to the Symposium on Comparative Analysis of National Research Systems. Others: World Bank knowledge for Development Scoreboard

GERD/GDP ratio for Arab countries, 2006 Other countries & regions are given for comparison

Investment in science: research in the Arab region

1. No critical mass FTEs researchers in all disciplines.

2. Weak link university industry.

3. Unemployment within R&D community: women 30% of total researchers.

4. Per million population, FTEs researchers are small: 588 in Jordan, 451 in Egypt, 186 in Morocco, 23 in Yemen (832 Chile, 1301 Israel, 2681 Ireland)

9

Investment in science: researchers in the Arab region

10

Note: The figures for Jordan & Tunisia represent FTE researchers. For Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco & Oman, the figures include FTE researchers at government universities. The figures for the other countries can be classified as partial data, as they do not include FTE researchers at government universities. *Human Development Report 2007 **The World Bank knowledge for Development Scoreboard Source: Saleh, Nabiel (2008) S&T Indicators in the Arab State, 2006

FTE researchers per million population in the Arab world, 2007 Selected countries

R&D output: scientific publications (SCI) heterogenity in the region.

1. chemistry strength: Egypt, Morocco, Algeria.

2. clinical medicine strength: Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, S.A, Tunisia, UAE.

3. plant and animal science strength: Syria.

4. engineering strength: Qatar.

11

R&D output: scientific publications (SCI)

1. Output of Arab region was 11107 research papers, 2006.

2. Egypt leads this indicator in total publications.

3. Per million population, Kuwait ranked 1st among Arab countries.

4. Average Arab per million population was 37 scientific papers as compared to world average of 148.

12

R&D output: scientific publications (SCI)

2234

78

132931

3744

58106

122143

146148148149

160187

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

YemenDjibouti

SudanIraq

MauritaniaSyriaLibya

AlgeriaMorocco

Average for Arab CountriesEgypt

Saudi ArabiaOman

JordanUAE

LebanonTunisia

World averageQatar

BahrainKuwait

Scientific articles per million population in Arab countries, 2006

13

Source: Data From Thomson Reuters (Scientific) Inc. Web of Science, (Science Citation Index Expanded), compiled for UNESCO by Canadian Observatoire des sciences et des techniques. Population Data taken from AFESD (2007) Unified Arab Economic report & UNDP (2007): Human Development Report 2007/2008; World Population prospects: the 2006 Revision, Department of economic & social affairs of the Unites Nations Secretariat.

R&D output: scientific publications (SCI)

14

220

51

87

108

111

119

122

149

267

512

530

561

644

939971

1341

1475

3098

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Djibouti

Mauritania

Yemen

Libya

Sudan

Bahrain

Qatar

Iraq

Syria

Oman

Kuwait

Lebanon

UAE

Jordan

Algeria

Morocco

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Egypt

Source: Data from Thomson Reuters (Scientific) Inc. Web of Science, Science Citation Index Expanded, compiled

for UNESCO by the Canadian Observatoire des sciences des techniques.

Scientific articles published in the Arab world, 2000 & 2006

The figure for 2000 is given between brackets

R&D output: scientific publications (SCI)

15

Scientific co-publications in the Arab world, 2000 & 2006

R&D output: patents in Arab region

Patents as indicator of technology, increased to 67 registered patents in U.S. but still behind (i.e. Finland 894 in 2008)

US patents granted to residents of Arab countries, 2004 and 2008

16

R&D output: high-tech export in Arab

region High-tech export is 10% of all national exports, Morocco leading.

Arab High-tech export is low, as compared to Malaysia of 55% of national export.

17

Share of high-tech exports in total manufactured exports in selected Arab countries, 2005 (%) other countries are given for comparison

Note: Worldwide, high-tech exports average 22% of a nation’s total exports. Source: World Bank (2007) World Development Indicators.

Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) in the Arab region

- UAE is leading 5.77 - Jordan 5.05, Syria 3.39

18

Knowledge Economy Index for selected Arab countries

The knowledge Economy Index (KEI) is calculated on the basis of the average normalized scores of a country or region on all four pillars of the knowledge economy: economic incentive & institutional regime: education, innovation; & ICTS. The score ranges from a low of 0 to a high of 10. Source: World Bank

Internet penetration in Arab region (2008) Penetration, leads by UAE of 50% of total population, 18.2% in Jordan, 1.4% in Yemen, 0.2%

in Iraq.

19

Internet Penetration in the Arab region, 2008

Country/Territory Percentage Growth In Use (2000-2008) Penetration (% Population) 2008

UAE 213 49.8

Qatar 1070 37.8

Bahrain 525 34.8

Kuwait 500 34.7

Lebanon 217 23.9

Saudi Arabia 3000 22.0

Morocco 7200 21.3

Jordan 785 18.2

Tunisia 1665 17.0

Palestinian Territories (West

Bank) 916 13.6

Syria 7007 10.8

Egypt 1816 10.5

Algeria 6900 10.4

Oman 233 9.1

Libya 2500 4.2

Sudan 4900 3.7

Comoros 1300 2.9

Djibouti 686 2.2

Yemen 2033 1.4

Mauritania 500 0.9

Iraq 332 0.2 Note: The most recent information on usage comes mainly from data published by Nielsen/Net ratings & the International Telecommunications

Union

Higher Education: building S&T workforce

1. HE students doubled from (3.2) millions in 1996 to (7.2) million in 2006.

2. 2230 HE students for every (100.000) inhabitants.

3. 300 public & private universities (one univ. per million population), less than world average.

4. 10000 universities worldwide for global population of (6.7) billion.

5. 125000 faculty members in Arab countries (M.Sc & Ph.D holders), 30% women.

6. Student \ teacher ratio 1:14 in OCED & 1:16 world average.

7. Egypt 1:30, Jordan 1:27

8. Lebanon 1:8, Jordan leads in science graduates (53%) for BS.c and Master programs. Tunisia leads in Ph.D programs (79%) followed by Egypt.

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21

Tertiary student enrolment in the Arab region, 2000 & 2006 as a percentage of the age cohort

2000 2006

Country Male

(%)

Female

(%)

Total Student

Enrolment (%) Male (%)

Female

(%)

Total Student

Enrolment (%)

Lebanon 33 35 34 45 51 48

Palestinian

Territories 27 25 26 44 53 48

Jordan 28 31 29 37 41 39

Egypt - - 37* - - 35*

Tunisia - - 19 26 37 31

Saudi Arabia 18 26 22 25 36 30

Oman - - - 25 26 25

Algeria - - - 19 24 22

Kuwait - - 23* 11 26 18

Iraq 15 8 12 20* 12* 16*

Qatar 8 27 16 8 26 15

Morocco 11 8 9 13 11 12

Yemen 16 4 10 14 5 9

Total Arab

States

23 17 20 22 22 22

* Data refers to the preceding year.

Source: UNESCO institute for Statistics

database

Higher Education: ranking universities

Shanghai Jiao Tong univ. of China ranking: Top 500, only one Arab university

1.Cairo university in year 2007 2.King Saud university in year 2009

Times Higher Education, UK ranking. OIC ranking.

22

2009

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1 1 Harvard University US 100 100 98 100 85 78 100.0

2 3 University of Cambridge UK 100 100 100 89 98 96 99.6

3 2 Yale University US 100 99 100 94 85 77 99.1

4 7 University College London UK 98 99 100 90 96 99 99.0

5= 6 Imperial College London UK 100 100 100 80 98 100 97.8

5= 4 University of Oxford UK 100 100 100 80 96 97 97.8

7 8 University of Chicago US 100 99 97 88 77 83 96.8

8 12 Princeton University US 100 96 82 100 89 81 96.6

9 9 Massachusetts Institute of

Technology

US 100 100 89 100 31 95 96.1

10 5 California Institute of

Technology

US 99 72 87 100 100 89 95.9

Times Higher Education-QS World University Rankings 2009

Top 200 World Universities

24

Ranking of Arab universities in top 50 for Islamic countries

Composite index for number of citations 2001-06 University Country Ranking

American University in Beirut Lebanon 8 United Arab Emirates UAE 9 Suez Canal University Egypt 10 Kuwait University Kuwait 11 Cairo University Egypt 25 King Fahd Uni. of Petrol & Minerals Saudi Arabia 34 Tanta University Egypt 43 Jordan University of Science &Technology Jordan 44 Sultan Qaboos University Oman 50

* Source: SESRTCIC (2007) Academic Rankings of Universities in the OIC Countries: A

Preliminary Report: www.sesrtcic.org/files/article/232.pdf

Higher Education: public expenditure

1. Government expenditure 1.4% of GDP in OECD (2007) as compared to:

1.7% in Tunisia 25% of total education

1.5% in S.A

1.3% in Egypt 28% of total education

1.2% in Yemen

0.8% in Jordan 18% of total education

0.5% in Syria

2. Jordan spends 4.3% of GDP on higher education & mostly comes from private sector. Many other Arab countries’ private sectors are investing in higher education: Lebanon, S.A, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen.

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Public expenditure on education in the Arab world, 2001 & 2006

Selected countries Country Public expenditure on

education as % of GDP

Public expenditure on education as % of

total government expenditure

2001 2006 2001 2006 Djibouti 7.8 8.3 - 22.4

Egypt - 4.0 - 12.0

Kuwait 6.6 3.6 - 12.9

Lebanon 2.9 2.7 11.0 9.8

Mauritania 3.3 2.9 - 10.1

Morocco 5.6 5.5 25.0 26.1

Oman 3.9 4.0 21.5 31.1

Saudi

Arabia

7.8 - 24.8 -

Tunisia 6.8 7.2* 18.2 20.8*

UAE 2.0* 1.4* 22.8* 28.3*

* Data refers to the preceding year.

Source: UNESCO institute for Statistics database,

March 2009

In Summary

1. Although higher education expanded in quantity, but was lagging behind in quality and relevance.

2. R&D was hampered by:

lack of smart inducive environment.

Heavy teaching load.

Lack of university autonomy.

Lack of funding.

Unstable governance.

Lack of research culture.

Slow Liberalization & democratization

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thank you