The Specter of Faminein Pre-Modern Europe

and Today

Thomas MalthusAn Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

• Danger of an “overpopulated” society.

• A large percentage of the population close to subsistence—difficult to save, borrow or trade.

• Population will outrun food supply and there will be starvation.

• Shocks—bad harvests or war may cause widespread death.

Simple Model---what’s equilibrium

Real Wage

Population

Demand for Labor

Birth Rate, Death Rate

Real Wage

Deaths

BirthsPopulation

Subsistence wage

Current Wage

If at subsistence wage and there is a boom harvest? harvest failure?

Famines—a Persistent Feature of Human Existence—until the 19th Century

• What do people die of during famines?

• Starvation? Disease?

• Weakening of Immune System, Population Movement Spreads Disease

• Births also Fall.

• How to measure Death Toll?

• What is excess mortality? Why is this hard to measure

Medieval Crises

• Great Famine in England– 1314 poor harvest, 1315 & 1317 bad harvests

(wheat yield down 60% in 1315) 1318 a good year but then disastrous harvest 1321-22.

– Problem of back-to-back bad harvests– Population 5 million---1/2 million deaths.

• Black Death—the Bubonic Plague– 1348-1349: 2.5 to 3 million deaths.

Famines Common: Example of France

• Population 1650: 19.5 million, 1685 22.0 million• Big country---regional crises—huge price

differences even in crises: poor transportation system—slow and inefficient.

• Famines– 1650-1652---1.1 million excess deaths– 1661-1662---0.9 million excess deaths– 1693-1694---1.2 million excess deaths– 1709-1710---0.6 million excess deaths.

But in England---famines disappear in the 17th century----why?

Rising Output and Productivity—Threat of Famine Recedes

The Great Irish Famine 1845-1849

• Population of Ireland 1841 was 8.2 million• Excess Mortality 1845-1850 was 1 million or

12% of the population.• In 1840s famine in Flanders 50,000 die out of

population of 1.4 million (3.6%), 60,000 in Netherlands with a population of 3 million (2%).

• Finland 1867-1868, population of 1.6 million, 100,000 deaths or 7%

• But Ireland is part of United Kingdom—wealthiest country in the world and there is no famine in England, Wales or Scotland

The British Isles

Why Ireland? Background• Long troubled relationship with Britain• England conquers area around Dublin in middle ages• Reformation—England becomes predominantly

Protestant, Ireland remains predominantly Catholic.• 1688---Battle of the Boyne, King William defeats

James II, penal laws imposed on the Irish, Catholics excluded from political life.

• By late 1700s most of penal legislation repealed• 1800 Ireland becomes a full and equal part of the UK

with Act of Union. Irish Parliament absorbed into British Parliament.

• First four decades of 19th century,Ireland enjoys a boom and economic growth

Ireland 1841

• Great Britain has a population of 18.5 million, GDP of £452 million or per capita £24

• Ireland has a population of 8.2 million, GDP of £124 million or per capita £15

• But Germany has population of 33.4 million GDP of 7.3 billion marks and a per capita income of £8.7

The Legacy of the Potato

Irish Lifestyle

• 85% of population lives in rural areas

• Houses of stone & thatched

• Fuel is peat

• Average height of Irish 5’ 8” while English 5’ 61/2” and Belgian 5’ 6”

Irish Diet---was it bad?

• Potato is central. Supplemented by milk, cheese, oatmeal and some fish and eggs. Poorest Irish subsist on diet of potatoes and milk.

• Sufficient for agricultural labor

Weaknesses of Irish Economy• Few farmers own land. Most of land held

by 8,000 landlords, a product of English conquest. Thus, little wealth.

• 1843 mean farm size 10.5 acres, but 81% below 20 acres and 10% under one acre- large number of subsistence farmers, grow potatoes and graze a cow and a few sheep. Dominate Western Ireland.

• Rapid population growth---1.3%, England 1%, France 0.4%

Landlord and Tenant

Immediate Background

• Previous famines in Ireland

• 1800-1801 and 1816-1818---war years, kill 50,000 people each

• Famine in 1822, low mortality because of effective public action.

• But nothing in previous experience like what happened.

An Ecological Disaster

• Appearance in 1845 of Phytophthora infestans---a fungus or blight that infects potatoes while they are underground and causes them to rot. Leaves die and fields begin to stink before people are aware. Plant is inedible. Early crop escapes

• 1846—General blight. Thousands die in summer as people wait for new harvest

• No blight in 1847 but few see potatoes, small crop

• 1848, blight destroyed much of crop• Blight continues in some parts of country to 1851

Incidence of the Famine

How to Measure Mortality

• Excess Mortality

• Problems– Some natural deaths– Emigration– Fall in Births—400,00 missing births

• Ireland transformed from a country of high birth rate to low birth rate---an anomaly until the last decade.

Ireland Compared

Population of Ireland (millions)Ireland

1821 6.8

1831 7.8

1841 8.2

1851 6.6

1861 5.8

1881 5.2

1911 4.4

Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland

1926 3.0 1.3

1937 3.0 1.3

1961 2.8 1.4

1971 3.0 1.5

2005 4.0 1.6

Population Ravaged

• People flee the farms to any village or town to beg for food or ask to be accepted into the workhouses for the poor.

• Workhouses—for the destitute who renounce all possessions. When full people turned away. Must work hard. Supported by local property taxes---problem now landlords can’t pay taxes.

Digging for Potatoes

House 1847

Scavanging

Eviction

After the Eviction

A later eviction

Sold Clothes for Food

Distribution of Clothes

Village of Mienies 1847

Famine Funeral

Aid?

• Government in London hesitates. In 1845 it sells grain cheaply in Ireland. Prime Minister Peel criticized—relief causes idleness and dependency

• 1846 Outdoor relief, 700,000 employed. But does not help families where no one can work. 3 million people are supported by public soup kitchens. Corn-maize gruel.

• Somewhere between 1.0 and 1.5 million die and 500,000 and 1.0 milion emigrate.

• Death common among poorest with tiny plots.

Aid?• British see Ireland as an alien country. Poverty due to

laziness and indifference. Feeding the hungry will only encourage population growth. Malthusian belief.

• The Economist: Paying people “not what their labour is worth, not whay their labour can be purchased for but what is sufficient for a comfortable subsistence for themselves and their family…would stimulate every man to marry and populate as fast as he could, like a rabbit in a warren.”

• Nassau Senior (an economist): “For we may be sure that if we allow the cancer of pauperism to complete the destruction of Ireland, and then to throw fresh venom into the already predisposed body of England, the ruin of all that makes England worth living in is a question only of time.”

Aid?

• Not everyone dogmatic Malthusian.• Church relief• Considerable government relief---but limited by

fears of encouraging the poor---maize based gruel in soup kitchens, idea it won’t be resold. Low nutritional value.

• Treasury provided £9.5 million, but did buy out West Indian slave owners for £20 million.

• Donor fatigue by 1847

Queen Victoria

Recovery

• Emigration

• Reduction in Birth Rate

• Switch in Crops, still heavily agricultural

• Incomes rise

• But…continued bitter relations landlord-tenant and Ireland-England

• A relatively unsuccessful European economy until the 1990s.