The Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Internal Migration of Foreigners in Italy and Spain(*)

Joaquín Recaño-ValverdeqDepartament de Geografia - Centre d’Estudis DemogràficsUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaVerónica de Miguel LukenUniversidad de GranadaRoberta PaceUniversitat di Bari

Migration, Mixing and Ethnic IntegrationRoyal Geographical Society

Manchester, 26-28th August 2009

(*) Geographical mobility of foreign population in Spain: sociodemographic and territorial factors, funded by the Minister of Education and Science, R+D National Scheme 2004-2007.

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Background and objectivesBackground and objectives

Despite the importance of the topic, not much is known about the internal mobility of the foreign population in Europe in comparison with USA and Canadacomparison with USA and Canada.Most existing studies try to answer the following general questions:questions:Do foreigners stay in the entry regions? Are their internal migration patterns similar to those of natives? g pDo these patterns differ by origin and/or nationality? What individual socioeconomic and family factors have an yinfluence on foreigners or foreign-born people mobility?We search for answers to these questions for Spain and Italy

Data

Th i d t i t l i ti (fl ) d i thiThe microdata on internal migration (flows) used in thisstudy come from municipal registers (Estadística deVariaciones Residenciales in Spain period 1988-2008 andp pStatistiche Anagrafiche in Italy period 1995-2006)The number of foreigners used to calculate migration

t f th P d ó C ti (S i ) drates comes from the Padrón Continuo (Spain) andStatistiche Anagrafiche and Census 2001 (Italy).The individual data for the logistic models have beenThe individual data for the logistic models have been taken from the IPUMS-International 5% Household sample of the Spanish and Italian Census Data

Methods

We have used internal migration rates by sex and ageand Gross Migraproduction rates (defined by Rogers and

m=GMR +∑ω

Willekens) similar to Total Fertility Rates.

mGMR n+xx,=0x∑

We have used Courgeau method (1973) to comparemeasures of intensity of mobility in Spain and ItalyWe have applied Logistic regression to the microdataof the 2001 Spanish and Italian Census provided byIPUMS International (Sample 5%)IPUMS-International (Sample 5%).

Methods

We have classified foreigners in five different groups:UE (15) + OECD countries,Eastern European countries, including the former Sovietrepublics,African countries,Latin American countries andAsian countries.

Spain and Italy : new countries of immigration

In the last ten years, Spain d It l h b tand Italy have become two

countries of immigration.Reaching in 2008 5.2 million (11 3 per cent of the

Year Italy % Pop. Spain % Pop.(11.3 per cent of the population of Spain) and 3.4 million (5.7 per cent of the population of Italy)

1996 737,793 1.30 542,314 1.37

p p y)Steep increase of the incoming flows and heterogeneity in terms of nationality

2001 1,464,589 2.57 1,370,657 3.33

What can we expect as a result of the economic crisis?

2007 2,938,922 4.97 4,519,554 10.00

2008 3,432,651 5.76 5,220,577 11.33

Spatial distribution of the foreign population -1st January 20081st January 2008

Not foreign people< 1 per cent1 - 5 per cent

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

1 - 5 per cent5 - 10 per cent10 - 15 per cent> 15 per cent

Source: INE and ISTAT. Own calculations

Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year Percentage of foreigners in internal movements by year in Spain and Italy (I)

The weight of their 30%

35%

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

Spain

Italygmoves over all internalflows has graduallyincreasedIn 2008 30 per cent of

20%

25%

mou

vem

ents

500 000

600.000

700.000

mm

igra

nts

Italy

Immigration Spain

Immigration Italy

In 2008, 30 per cent ofall residence changes inSpain.15 per cent in Italy

10%

15%

% o

f int

erna

l m

200 000

300.000

400.000

500.000

Num

ber o

f i

15 per cent in Italy.Singularity of the Spanishcase (no restriction toundocumented

0%

5%

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080

100.000

200.000

undocumentedimmigrants). Year or migration

PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. SPAIN 2007

Origin Destination

Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent

PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF PERCENTAGE OF INTERNAL MIGRATION OF FOREIGNERS BY MUNICIPALITY OF DESTINATION/ORIGIN. ITALY 2007

O i iOriginDestination

Zero or no data< 5 per cent5 15 t5 - 15 per cent15 - 40 per cent> 40 per cent

Internal net migration of foreigners by region in Spain and It l (2002 2007)Italy (2002 – 2007)

20032002 2003 2004

2005 2006 2007

P ti f i t l t b d t f Proportion of internal movements by sex, age and type of migration Spain (2008) and Italy (2006)

Spain (2008)

50%

60%

Italy (2006)

50%

60%

30%

40%

30%

40%

0%

10%

20%

0%

10%

20%

A b tit t i di d l i t l i ti i S i ?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration

Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Age of migration

Short distance Males Medium & Large distance MalesShort distance Females Medium & Large distance Females

A substitute process in medium and large internal migration in Spain?50 per cent of young male movements in interprovincial migration in 2008in Spain and 15 per cent in Italy in 2006

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Results. Demographic structure

* Foreigners are far more mobile than Spanish and Italian nationals (three times as mobile on average in Spain).

Spain (2002-2004)

140

160

180

Italy (2002-2004)

140

160

180

80

100

120

80

100

120

140

20

40

60

20

40

60

00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Spanish males Spanish females F (males) F (females)

00-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Italian males Italian females F (males) F (females)

Gross migraproduction rates by sex and nationality. Spain (2001-2004) and Italy (2000-2003)

Spain (2001-2004) Males Females Sex ratioSpain 2,06 2,03 1,01Foreigners 6,08 5,70 1,07UE (15) 3 77 3 46 1 09UE (15) 3,77 3,46 1,09Eastern Europe 7,03 6,79 1,04Africa 7,11 5,65 1,26Latinoamerican 7,25 7,17 1,01Asian 7,41 5,90 1,26Italy (2000-2003) Males Females Sex ratioItaly 1,55 1,50 1,03Foreigners 5 09 3 96 1 28Foreigners 5,09 3,96 1,28UE (15) 2,58 2,36 1,10Eastern Europe 5,56 4,36 1,28Africa 5,92 4,63 1,28Latinoamerican 3,95 3,83 1,03Asian 6,49 5,08 1,28

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Internal migration profilesby sex age and nationality

UE + OCDE

0,14

0,16

0,18Hombres

Mujeres

Países del Este

0,14

0,16

0,18

Hombres

Mujeres by sex, age and nationalitySpain (2004-2007)

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

W fi d diff b0,00

0,02

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00

0,02

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Países africanos0,18

Latinoamericanos0,18

We find differences by ageand gender.

More mobile than

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

Hombres

Mujeres

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

Hombres

Mujeres

o e ob e t aEuropean Union (15)nationalities.

We find the greatest

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

,

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

We find the greatestdifferences in Gender inAfricans and Asians

ti litiPaíses asiáticos

0 12

0,14

0,16

0,18

Hombres

Mujeres

Total extranjeros

0 12

0,14

0,16

0,18

Hombres

Mujeres

nationalities.

0 02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0 02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,00

0,02

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00

0,02

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

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Internal migrationprofiles by sex, ageand nationality Italy

European Union

0,14

0,16

Males

Eastern Europe

0,14

0,16

Males and nationality Italy(2000-2003)

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12 Females

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12 Females

We find a similar behavior in Italian data but stronger

0,00

0,02

0,04

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00

0,02

0,04

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Africans Latinoamericans data but stronger differences in gender, specially between Af i A i d

Africans

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

Males

Females

Latinoamericans

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

Males

Females

Africans, Asians and Eastern Europe.

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,000-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

0,000-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Asians

0,14

0,16

Total

0,14

0,16

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

,

Males

Females

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

,

Males

Females

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona0,00

0,02

0,04

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-740,00

0,02

0,04

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

Logistic Intra-regional Inter-regionalItaly Spain Italy Spain

female ,943* ,966** ,660* ,934*25 34 regression

(short and long

Age group

25-3435-44 ,567* ,649* ,374* ,711*45-54 ,322* ,406* ,212* ,475*55+ ,169* ,183* ,152* ,304*native-born

distance)

Subcontinent of birth

European Union 15+CEE+Norway+Switzerland 1,069 1,267* 1,326* ,845*

Central-Eastern Europe 1,411* 1,617* 1,502* 1,123Northern Africa 1,657* 1,579* 1,206* 1,519*rest of Africa 1 273* 1 447* 1 223** 1 341*Subcontinent of birth rest of Africa 1,273 1,447 1,223 1,341Western Asia ,814 ,788 1,021 1,152South-Central Asia 1,813* ,940 1,749* 1,625*Eastern Asia 1,129 ,852 2,273* 1,028North America/Oceania ,880 ,898 ,980 1,203S h C A i

dependent variable:

change of South-Centre America 1,459* 1,365* 1,281* 1,282*

Type of household

one-person hhmarried/cohab couple, no children ,834* 1,523* ,592* 1,078**married/cohab couple, with children

,299* ,353* ,515* ,325*

change of municipality/region of

residence in the previous yearyp

single-parent family ,434* ,366* ,725* ,354*extended family, relatives only ,577* ,585* ,751* ,686*other ,857* ,820* 1,376* 1,269*Less than primary completedPrimary completed 1 076* 1 301* 1 271* 1 360*

previous year(0: no, 1: yes)

* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1

Academic attainmentPrimary completed 1,076* 1,301* 1,271* 1,360*Secondary completed 1,283* 1,742* 2,382* 1,976*University completed 1,486* 1,768* 4,797* 2,911*

Housing tenure Not-owned 1,144* 1,217* 1,350* 2,959*Employed

Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain

Employment status Unemployed ,818* 1,031 ,848* 1,648*Inactive ,893* ,872* 1,233* 1,124*Constant ,076* ,027* ,012* ,004*

Native-born

Northern-Africa

Central-Eastern

Europe 15+other develop

South-Central Asia

Logistic regression (Italy - long

born AfricaEurope

develop. countries

America

female ,655* 1,181 ,724* ,641* 1,060 ,689*25-34

distance)Age-group 35-44 ,362* ,735 ,894 ,372* ,683** ,627*45-54 ,203* ,952 ,657* ,178* ,479* ,390*55+ ,148* ,438* ,557* ,182* ,293* ,730one-person hh

Household type

married/cohab couple, no children,572* 1,189 ,929 ,770 ,549** 1,280

married/cohab couple, with children,505* ,518* ,663* ,624* ,355* 1,051

single-parent family ,715* ,478 ,724 ,884 ,671 ,528t d d f il l ti l

dependent variable:

change of region of extended family, relatives only,748* ,840 ,696* ,706 ,717 ,739

other 1,605* 1,097 ,859 1,306 ,449 ,976Less than primary completed

Primar completed 1 346* 1 242 1 165 1 285 691 1 215

change of region of residence in the previous year(0: no, 1: yes)

Academic attainment Primary completed 1,346* 1,242 1,165 1,285 ,691 1,215Secondary completed 2,586* 1,207 1,448 2,492 ,920 1,052University completed 5,371* ,962 1,769 3,539* 1,366 ,900

Housing tenure Not-owned 1,353* 1,002 1,602* 1,320* 1,197 1,108Employed

(0: no, 1: yes)

* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1

Employment status

p y

Unemployed ,823* 1,195 1,384** ,765** 1,456 1,102Inactive 1,272* ,599** ,807 1,076 ,981 ,823

Citizenship by period

Citizen

Non citizen arrived before 19962,038* 1,689* ,666* 1,240 1,577

Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain

p y pof arrival

,038 ,689 ,666 , 0 ,5

Non citizen arrived post-19962,533* 2,524* ,982 ,744 2,244*

Constant ,011* ,008* ,009* ,021* ,027* ,015*

Native- NorthernCentral-

Europe 15+other

South-

Logistic regression

(Spain- long

Nativeborn

Northern-Africa

Eastern Europe

15 other develop. countries

Central America

Asia

female ,945* ,800 ,839 1,029 ,813* ,99025-34

distance)Age-group 35-44 ,694* ,805 ,753 ,792 ,911 1,06345-54 ,462* ,591** ,951 ,324* ,897 ,63555+ ,305* ,521** ,000 ,166* ,625* ,157**one-person hhmarried/cohab couple no

Household type

married/cohab couple, no children 1,074** ,727 1,307 1,360 ,963 ,619

married/cohab couple, with children ,313* ,546** ,686 ,614** ,676** ,851

single-parent family ,337* ,259 3,021 ,362** ,700 3,223

dependent variable:

change of province of extended family, relatives only ,658* 1,011 ,648 1,410 ,771 ,752

other 1,431* 1,350 1,462 1,703* ,894 ,909Less than primary completedPrimary completed 1,417* 1,162 ,744 3,067 1,453** ,941

change of province of residence in the previous year(0: no, 1: yes)

Academic attainment y p 1,417 1,162 ,744 3,067 1,453 ,941

Secondary completed 2,127* 1,361 1,209 4,650* 1,515** 1,133University completed 3,115* 2,061* 1,889 7,187* 1,749* 1,583

Housing tenure Not-owned 2,992* 1,562* 2,261* 3,403* 2,028* 1,499

E l t t t

EmployedUnemployed 1 690* 1 020 2 595* 1 797* 1 436* 1 397

(0: no, 1: yes)

* significant for α=0,05, ** significant for α=0,1

Employment status Unemployed 1,690* 1,020 2,595* 1,797* 1,436* 1,397Inactive 1,154* ,724 1,100 1,509* ,894 1,205

Citizenship by period of arrival

CitizenNon citizen arrived before 1996 1,279 ,302** 1,046 1,147 1,252

Source: 2001 Census microdata, from IPUMS international database. Italy and Spain

Non citizen arrived post-1996 2,559* 1,118 1,367 2,618* 4,074*Constant ,005

* ,004* ,004* ,001* ,003* ,004*

In sum (I),

The similarity of the data source on internalmigration in Spain and Italy let us make ag p ycomparative study (but with the particularity thatundocumented immigrants are registered inSpain Sources and not in Italy)Spain Sources and not in Italy)The participation of immigrants in internalmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasingmigration system in Spain and Italy is increasing,but it depends on the evolution of the number ofannual inflows (positive effects). In addition, thed ti f id h ti t ff tduration of residence has a negative strong effectin the mobility of foreigners.

In sum (II),

The percentage of foreigners in internal migrationin Spain and Italy changes significantly when wein Spain and Italy changes significantly when weconsider age, gender and type of migration.W id tif i S i d It l t iWe can identify in Spain and Italy entry regionsof immigrants with a territorial role of internal

di t ib ti (l i i t ) d thredistribution (lose immigrants) and another onewith a role of final destination region (gaini i t )immigrants).

In sum (III),

Foreigners are more mobile than natives inS i d It l ith t diff bSpain and Italy, with great differences bygender.Africans and Asians have the highestintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy butintensity of mobility in Spain and Italy, butLatin-Americans are more mobile in Spainth i It lthan in Italy.

Further researchFurther research

Use the whole Census dataset for foreignhouseholds in Spainhouseholds in SpainStudy in more detail the intra-group differences(for instance Moroccans vs Gambians)(for instance, Moroccans vs Gambians)Apply multilevel models to disentangle somecontextual effectscontextual effectsIntroduce other explanatory variables related tothe labour market the social network and thethe labour market, the social network and thetiming of the family constitution in Spain

•Thank you for your attention