The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What?
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Transcript of The South Carolina and Santee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What?
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The South Carolina andSantee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What?
Dr. Don SchunkResearch EconomistCenter for Economic & Community DevelopmentCoastal Carolina University
April 15, 2010
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The Big Picture:Key Trends That Will Shape the
Next 5-10 Years
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Savings Rate Debt-to-Income
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US Savings and Debt Trends: Implications for Spending
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Real Income Growth: 3.9%
Real Spending Growth: 3.8%
Real Income Growth: 3.1%
Real Spending Growth: 3.4%
????
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U.S. Homeownership Rate1965 - 2009
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Household DebtFederal Govt Debt
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Debt Outstanding1966 - 2009
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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South Carolina Labor Market Trends
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01
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SC Total EmploymentJan. 2007 – Jan. 2010
Feb 2008:1,950,700 jobs
Jan 2010:1,813,000 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
-138,000 jobs-7.1%
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90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
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SC Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – Jan. 2010
June 2000:1,876,600 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Jan 2010:1,813,000 jobs
Jan 2002:1,795,400 jobs
Feb 2008:1,950,700 jobs
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Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
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SC Employment Trends Since 1960
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
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SC Employment Trends Since 1960
+39,000 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
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SC Employment Trends Since 1960
+60,000jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
s, 1
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SC Employment Trends Since 1960
-316,000jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Understanding the “Lost” Decade:Trends in Manufacturing Employment
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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S.C. Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 – 2001Q4
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Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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S.C. Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 – 2009Q4
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
What happens as we lose 130,000 manufacturing jobs?
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Total EmploymentManufacturing Employment
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Manufacturing and Total Employment in South Carolina1970Q1 – 2009Q4
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Tracking The Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Employment Benchmark: Early 1990sEmployment Benchmark: Early 2000sActual SC Employment
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Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Employment Benchmark: Early 1990sEmployment Benchmark: Early 2000sActual SC Employment
Job
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0s
Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
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Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2010-2011
Presented by:Santee-Lynches Regional COG
& The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Developmentat Coastal Carolina University
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Gross Retail Sales($ billions)
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
History $2.81 $3.22 $3.34 $3.59 $3.93 $3.67 $3.13
Forecast $3.20 $3.35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Total Employment(thousands)
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
History 86.8 87.9 89.1 89.7 88.2 86.6 84.6
Forecast 84.3 84.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Labor Force(thousands)
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
History 93.8 95.2 97.0 97.0 94.6 94.3 97.0
Forecast 97.0 97.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
History 7.5 7.7 8.1 7.6 6.8 8.2 12.9
Forecast 13.1 12.6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2000-’09 data
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-9,240manufacturingjob losses from2000-3rdQ ‘09
for region.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
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-795 non-manufacturing job
losses from 2000-3rdQ ’09 for
region.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
-10,035total job losses
from 2000-3rdQ ‘09for region.
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“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy
is education, education, education.”
Dr. JOHN S. BUTLERProfessor, University of Texas
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Single-Family Building Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
History 985 1218 1528 1457 1369 732 745
Forecast 780 850
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Single-Family Permits Value($millions)
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
History $97.9 $123.2 $156.3 $161.3 $159.1 $85.8 $83.7
Forecast $88.0 $92.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Manufactured/Mobile Home Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
History 1197 966 931 834 737 609 537
Forecast 483 355
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Nonresidential Building Permits(# of permits)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
History 147 123 146 170 150 117 78
Forecast 68 72
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Nonresidential Permit Value($millions)
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
History $50.3 $36.9 $37.1 $65.4 $28.1 $71.1 $21.1
Forecast $22.7 $23.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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GDP Growth Rate(percent)
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
History 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 0.4 -2.4
Forecast 2.4 2.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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CPI Inflation Rate(percent)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
History 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3
Forecast 2.0 2.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Prime Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
History 4.1 4.3 6.2 8.0 8.1 5.1 3.3
Forecast 3.3 3.6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
History 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.0
Forecast 5.4 6.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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3-Month Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
History 1.0 1.4 3.1 4.7 4.4 1.4 0.2
Forecast 0.4 1.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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10-Year Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
History 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.7 3.3
Forecast 3.9 4.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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South Carolina Total Employment(millions)
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
History 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
Forecast 1.8 1.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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South Carolina Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
History 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.4 5.6 6.9 11.7
Forecast 12.5 12.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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