The Social Cost of Methane: Valuing Emissions to Reflect their … · The Social Cost of Methane:...
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The Social Cost of Methane: Valuing Emissions to Reflect their Full Environmental Impact Drew Shindell Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University Jan S. Fuglestvedt (CICERO), William J. Collins (U Reading), Greg Faluvegi (NASA GISS)
Transcript of The Social Cost of Methane: Valuing Emissions to Reflect their … · The Social Cost of Methane:...
The Social Cost of Methane: Valuing Emissions to Reflect their Full Environmental Impact
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
Jan S. Fuglestvedt (CICERO), William J. Collins (U Reading), Greg Faluvegi (NASA GISS)
Multiple benefits
Long-term climate: 0.001°C
corresponds to 1.2 GtCO2
Rate & magnitude of
warming over next 20-40 yr
Health: mortalities, morbidities
Crops: tons of yield
Develop a broad Social Cost of Methane that includes impacts on human health, agriculture, etc., via climate & air quality
Valuing Emissions
Emissions
Physical
Impacts
Societal
Impacts
Methane
Carbon
Cycle
Concentrations Carbon Dioxide Ozone Methane Stratospheric
Water
Food Crops Human Health Infrastructure
Air Pollution
Climate: Temperature,
Precipitation, Drought, Heatwaves,
Wildfires, Disease Vectors,
Sea-level rise, etc.
Forestry
Shindell et al, Faraday Disc, 2017
Social Cost of Methane including climate change & air quality impacts with consistent methodology
Values over all times are included (discounted over time), and all impacts included
Valuing Emissions
Radiative forcing update included, ozone-health update not yet
Methane (4% discounting, CO2 total $38/ton)
Total $2900 (1300-4900)
Ratio vs CO2 76 (50 and180 with 3% and 10% discounting, respectively)
Valuing Emissions:
Control measures & costs from UNEP, 2011
Shindell et al, Faraday Disc, 2017
Cost curves for in-use methane abatement measures
Shindell et al, Faraday Disc, 2017
Livestock-related emissions
Benefit Valuation due to Emissions Reductions
~$270 billion for healthy diet due to reduced health care cost + lost work days(Springmann et al., PNAS, 2016)
Shindell et al, Faraday Disc, 2017
Agriculture-related emissions
Societal benefits of potential
interventions
Crops; Impacts per emission
Shindell et al, in progress, 2018 Thanks to Pisces Foundation!
Crops; Impacts of emissions to date
-16000
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
CO2 CH4 OtherGases
Aerosols Net
Maize
USA
China
Mexico
Egypt
Brazil
France
Italy
Canada
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
CO2 CH4 OtherGases
Aerosols Net
Wheat
India
Pakistan
USA
France
Mexico
Canada
China
Turkey
ktlo
ss
Shindell et al, in progress, 2018 Thanks to Pisces Foundation!
Methane valuation including climate and air quality impacts substantially larger (of course!) than climate alone (CO2e)
Impacts not sensitive to emission location
Results coming: new ozone-health impacts, spatial distribution of crop impacts, market economic impacts (both air quality & climate)
Another facet of impacts along mitigation pathway
Conclusions
