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![Page 1: The Social Cost of Intercity Transportation A Comparison of Air and Highway by David Levinson, David Gillen, and Adib Kanafani University of California.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649eb05503460f94bb58fc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Social Cost of Intercity Transportation
A Comparison of Air and Highway
by David Levinson, David Gillen, and Adib Kanafani
University of California at Berkeley
Levinson, David, David Gillen, and Adib Kanafani (1998) A Comparison of the Social Costs of Air and Highway. Transport Reviews 18:3 215-240.http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/SocialCost.pdf
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Motivation
To measure externalities as a function of usage
To enable the evaluation of the “Full Cost” of different modes under different circumstances
To measure the costs consistently (in $/pkt) to compare fairly
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Overview
What are externalities Key Issues Our approach to the problem Cost by cost discussion Summary
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What are Externalities
Externalities are the difference between what parties to a transaction pay and what society pays
Coase: property rights problem. Property rights are not assigned to clean air, quiet, uncongested travel.
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Key Issues
“Externalities” are Inputs to Production System. Clean Air, Quiet, Safety, Freeflow Time are used to produce a trip.
The System has boundaries: Direct effects vs. Indirect effects
Double Counting must be avoided
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Selection of Externalities
Criteria: Direct Effects Not Internalized in Capital or Operating
Costs External to User (not necessarily to system) Result: Noise, Air Pollution, Congestion,
Accidents Not: Water Pollution, Parking, Defense ...
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Approach
AirHighway Noise
Air Pollution
Congestion
Accidents
Measurement
Generation
Valuation
Integration
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Noise: Measurement
Noise: Unwanted Sound dB(A) = 10 log (P2/Pref)
P: Pressure, Pref: queitest audible sound NEF: Noise Exposure Forecast is a
function of number (frequency) of events and their loudness.
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Noise: Generation
Amount of noise generated is a function of traffic flow, speed, types of traffic.
Additional vehicles have non-linear effect: e.g. 1 truck = 80 db, 2 trucks = 83 db, but sensitivity to loudness also rises
Noise decays with distance
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Noise: Valuation
Hedonic Models: Decline of Property Values with Increase in Noise --> Noise Depreciation Index (NDI).
Average NDI from many highway and airport studies is 0.62. For each unit increase in dB(A), there is a 0.62% decline in the price of a house
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Noise: Integration
Noise Cost Functions ($/pkt) : f(Quantity of Noise, House Values, Housing Density, Interest Rates)
Using “reasonable” assumption, this ranges from $0.0001/vkt - $0.0060/vkt for highway. Best guess = $0.0045/pkt.
For air, about the same, $0.0043/pkt.
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Air Pollution: Measurement
Air Pollution Problems: Smog, Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion, Global Climate Change.
EPA “Criteria” Pollutants: HC (a.k.a. VOC, ROG), NOx, CO, SOx, PM10
Other Pollutants: CO2
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Air Pollution Generation
Comparison of Modes
Mode Pax km HC kg,M
(gm/pkt)
COkg,M
(gm/pkt)
NOxkg, M(gm/pkt)
C,TonM
(gm/pkt) Highways 5.4 x1012 5,118
(0.95)32,690
(6.053)5,945(1.11)
263.2(46)
Jets 5.8 x1011 54(0.093)
163(0.28)
72.7(0.13)
59.2(100)
Total Transport
6,409 39,972 7,918
Total All Sources
18,536 60,863 19,890
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Air Pollution: Valuation
Local Health Effects, Material and Vegetation Effects, Global Effects
Greatest Uncertainty in Global Effects, Proposed “Carbon Tax” have 2 orders of magnitude differences
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Air Pollution: Integration
Pollutant Air Cost($/pkt)
Highway Costs($/vkt)
PM10 --- $0.000085
SOx --- $0.000315
HC $0.0001530 $0.003850
CO $0.0000018 $0.000049
NOx $0.0001700 $0.001000
Carbon $0.0005800 $0.000260
TOTAL $0.0009048 $0.005559
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Congestion: Measurement
Time: Congested, Uncongested Congested Time Increases as Flow
Approaches, Exceeds “Capacity” Uncongested Time: Freeflow Time +
Schedule Delay
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Congestion: Generation
Air Transportation: Delay vs. Usage
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Volume/ Capacity
Marginal Average
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Congestion: Valuation
Value of Time is a function of mode, time of day, purpose, quality of service, trip-maker.
Wide range, typically $50/hr air, $30/hr car. (Business Trips more valuble than Personal Trips).
On other hand, average hourly PCI rate (40 hour week) gives $10/hr
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Congestion: Integration
Time Cost Functions: TC = VoT Qh ( Lf/ Vf + a (Qh / Qho)b)
highway: a=0.32, b=10 air: a=2.33, b=6
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Accidents: Measurement
Number of Accidents by Severity Multiple Databases (NASS, FARS) Multiple Agencies (NHTSA, NTSB), +
states and insurance agencies Inconsistent Classification Non-reporting
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Accidents: Generation
Accident Rates, Functions Highway: Accident Rate = f(urban/rural,
onramps, auxiliarly lanes, flow, queueing)
Air: Accident Rate = f( type of aircraft)
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Accidents: Valuation
Value of Life: average of studies $2.9 M average of highway studies $2.7 M Cost of Non-fatal accident depends on
property damage, injury (degree of functional life lost, police costs, etc.)
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Accidents: Integration
Highway Accident Costs estimates range from $0.002 - $0.09/pkt. Our estimate is $0.02/pkt.
Urban / rural tradeoff. Urban more but less severe accidents.
Air Accident Costs $0.0005/pkt.
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Summary: $/pkt
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Summary: Conceptual
High Uncertainty About Valuation Costs Vary with Usage Accounting, Difficult, but necessary to
avoid double counting.