The Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Big5 … · 2019. 9. 13. · 8) United...
Transcript of The Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Big5 … · 2019. 9. 13. · 8) United...
The Sim Kee Boon Institute
for Financial Economics (SKBI)
Big5 Survey
Embargoed until 10.30am, 11 September, 2019
Background Information
The SKBI Big5 survey focuses on the multiyear outlook and assessment of the biggest five
economies in the world (in PPP-terms), namely China, Euro Area, India, Japan and United
States.
The Institute, via the Big5 survey and Post-Survey event, seeks to establish a recurrent
platform in Singapore for a diverse group of participants to explore the relevant risks and
opportunities surrounding the global economic landscape.
Should you have any inquiries, please contact Tom Lam ([email protected]) or Dave
Fernandez ([email protected]).
List of Participants (August 2019 Survey):
1) Bank of Singapore
2) DBS Group
3) GIC
4) ING Bank NV
5) Moody’s Investors Service
6) TD Securities
7) UBS
8) United Overseas Bank Group
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the
following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e.,
India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk).
Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in
2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants
seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through
2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest majority view greater disinflationary
risks in 2019 and 2020.
Perhaps in light of the growing concerns over policy leeway, participants anticipate
policymakers in Japan to be generally more reluctant on pursuing additional policy stimulus
(monetary and fiscal) at the outset. Although participants appear to view Euro Area
policymakers to be less hesitant on fresh stimulus measures (monetary and fiscal), policy
efficacy might be an increasingly crucial issue going forward.
Takeaways (August 2019 Survey)
1
GDP
Growth
China-Real GDP Growth
No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
2
Euro Area-Real GDP Growth
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
3
India-Real GDP Growth
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
4
Japan-Real GDP Growth
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
5
US-Real GDP Growth
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
6
GDP Growth
Risk Assessment
Real GDP Growth Risks (2019)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
7
7
0
1
CN
7
0
1
IN
6
0
2
US
8
0
0
EA
6
0
2
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Real GDP Growth Risks (2020)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
8
7
0
1
CN
4
0
4
IN
7
0
1
US
7
0
1
EA
5
0
3
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Real GDP Growth Risks (2021)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
9
2
0
3
CN
1
0
4
IN
4
0
2
US
2
0
3
EA
2
0
4
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
CPI
Inflation
China-CPI Inflation
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
10
Euro Area-CPI Inflation
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
11
India-CPI Inflation
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
12
Japan-CPI Inflation
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
13
US-CPI Inflation
No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7
Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
14
Inflation
Risk Assessment
Inflation Risks (2019)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
15
1
0
6
CN
3
0
4
IN
3
0
4
US
5
0
2
EA
3
0
4
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Inflation Risks (2020)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
16
1
0
6
CN
2
1
4
IN
1
2
4
US
4
0
3
EA
1
1
5
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Inflation Risks (2021)
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
17
1
1
3
CN
0
3
2
IN
0
2
3
US
1
1
3
EA
1
0
5
JP
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Monetary
Policy
Monetary Policy 2019
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
18
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN8
0
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA8
0
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN8
0
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP4
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US8
0
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Monetary Policy 2020
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
19
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN6
2
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA5
3
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN4
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP3
5
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US7
1
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Monetary Policy 2021
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
20
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN1
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA1
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN1
2
2
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP1
5
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US1
4
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Fiscal
Policy
Fiscal Policy 2019
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
21
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN8
0
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA5
2
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN6
2
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP2
4
2
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US5
3
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Fiscal Policy 2020
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
22
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN6
1
1
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA5
2
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN3
4
1
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP2
5
1
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US4
4
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Fiscal Policy 2021
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
23
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
CN1
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
EA1
4
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
IN0
5
0
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
JP1
4
1
Tighter
Looser
On-hold
US2
3
0
Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.
CN=China
EA=Euro Area
IN=India
JP=Japan
US=United States
Business Cycle
Dynamics
Downturn in US, Euro Area & Japan?
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
24
Note: The figures in the respective bar charts denote the number of participants
Business Cycle: China & India
25
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)*4Q-to-4Q basis
Note: The figures in the respective pie charts denote the number of participants
5
3 3
5
“Sharp Slowdown” in China & India?
Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)
26
Note: The figures in the respective bar charts denote the number of participants