The Science of Disaster

Resilience

Dr. Howard Harary

Director

Engineering Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Four Oaks/Shutterstock

Building a Resilient Europe in a Globalized World

EC Joint Research Centre

30 September 2015

NIST’s Mission

To promote U.S.

innovation and industrial

competitiveness by

advancing measurement

science, standards,

and technology in ways

that enhance economic

security and improve our

quality of life

Disaster Resilience

• Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD 21) : Resilience is “the

ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and

withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions.”

• Natural and man-made disasters cause an average of $62B

in annual costs in the U.S. and killed more than 550 people

annually, while single events have caused >$100B losses.

• Current approach to response and recovery is inefficient and

ineffective.

• Changing the paradigm requires a holistic, science-based

understanding of interrelationships between social and

engineered systems with a focus on preparation and

mitigation.

Science / Technical Strategies for

Disaster Resilience

• Understand the Risk

– Hazard Maps

• History

• Understanding of the State of -- and Changes in -- the

Natural Environment

– Field Investigations – Nature’s Laboratory

• Plan, Prepare and Mitigate

– Planning Guides

– Technical Innovations

– Science-based Codes and Standards

Earthquake Risk in the U.S.

Wind Climatology

New Wind Speed Maps for ASCE 7-16

Wind and Storm Surge • Windstorms and coastal inundation caused $250B in US property

loss from 1996-2012 (NOAA estimate in 2012 dollars).

– Hurricanes,

– coastal flooding,

– tornados,

– straight line winds

Floodwall failure in

Hurricane Katrina

Credit: NIST

Bridge decks failure due to storm surge and wave action in Hurricane Katrina.

Credit: NIST

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Existing Tornado Hazard Maps

ANSI/ANS 2.3 (2011) for Safety-Related Structures and

Components of Nuclear Power Plants

* 3-second gust at 33 ft

ICC 500 (2014)/FEMA

361(2015) for Shelters and Safe Rooms Design

• Different in wind speeds and regionalization. No accounting for biases and

uncertainties in tornado database

• No accounting for increased risk of tornado strike on spatially large systems.

Disaster and Failure Studies at NIST Earthquakes Hurricanes Construction

&

Building

Tornadoes Fires

San Fernando, CA

(1971)

Mexico City, Mexico

(1985)

Loma Prieta, CA

(1989)

Northridge, CA

(1994)

Kobe, Japan (1995)

Kocaeli, Turkey

(1999)

Maule, Chile (2010)

Christchurch, NZ

(2011)

Camille, MS/LA

(1969)

Alicia, Galveston,

TX (1983)

Hugo, SC (1989)

Andrew, FL (1992)

Hurricanes Mitch

and Georges,

LAC (1998)

Hurricanes Katrina

and Rita (2005)

Skyline Plaza

Apartments, Bailey’s

Crossroads, VA (1973)

Willow Island Cooling

Tower, WV (1978)

Kansas City Hyatt

Regency, Kansas City,

MO (1981)

Riley Road

Interchange, East

Chicago, IN (1982)

Harbor Cay

Condominium, Cocoa

Beach, FL (1981)

L’Ambiance Plaza,

Hartford, CT (1987)

Ashland Oil Tank

Collapse, Floreffe, PA

(1988)

U.S. Embassy,

Moscow, USSR (1987)

Murrah Federal

Building, Oklahoma

City, OK (1995)

World Trade Center

Disaster, New York, NY

(2001)

Dallas Cowboys Indoor

Practice Facility, May

2009

Jarrell, TX (1997)

Spencer, SD (1998)

Oklahoma City, OK

(1999)

Joplin, MO (2011)

Moore OK (2013)

DuPont Plaza Hotel, San Juan,

PR (1986)

First Interstate Bank Building,

Los Angeles, CA (1988)

Loma Prieta Earthquake, CA (1989)

Hillhaven Nursing Home (1989)

Pulaski Building, Washington, DC (1990)

Happyland Social Club, Bronx, NY (1990)

Oakland Hills, CA (1991)

Watts St, New York City (1994)

Northridge Earthquake, CA (1994)

Kobe, Japan (1995)

Vandalia St, New York City (1998)

Cherry Road, Washington, DC (1999)

Keokuk, IA (1999)

Houston, TX (2000)

Phoenix, AZ (2001)

Cook County Administration Building Fire

(2003)

The Station Nightclub, RI (2003)

Charleston, SC, Sofa Super

Store Fire (2007)

Witch Creek & Guejito, CA, WUI Fire

(2007)

Amarillo, TX, WUI Fire (2011)

San Francisco, CA (2012) * Images©Shutterstock.com

* ongoing

• World Trade Center (2001 – 2005/2008)

U.S. model building codes changes adopted for fire proofing; fire resistance

rating; structural integrity; occupant evacuation & fire service access elevators;

active fire protection systems; emergency responder communications.

• Station Nightclub Fire (2003 - 2005)

Requirements on automatic sprinklers, restricted festival seating in new and

existing buildings, crowd managers for existing and new assembly occupancies,

and egress inspection recordkeeping adopted in NFPA 101 (Life safety Code)

• Joplin Tornado (2011 – 2014)

Recommendations for standard/code requirements for tornado-resistant

design for buildings, code requirements for tornado shelters in many more

buildings, and standards and codes for clear, consistent, and accurate

emergency communications

Recent NIST National Construction Safety Team

Investigations and Subsequent Impacts

The Event:

• Tornado warning issued at 5:17 PM CDT, May 22, 2011. Touched down at 5:34

PM. Official tornado warning time: 17 minutes ( 14 minutes national average)

• Track length about 22 miles long (6 miles in City of Joplin)

• Intensity varied along track. Officially rated EF-5 (highest category on the

Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale), with estimated maximum wind

speeds of 200+ mph – 161 Lives Lost, > 100 injuries, > $3 Billion insured

property losses

Joplin Tornado - Deadliest and Costliest Single Tornado on Record (U.S.)

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Aerial image © 2011 GeoEye. Building footprint data Pictometry®. Used with permission. Enhancements by

NIST.

Many Scientific / Technical Challenges

Remain

• Risk Perception

– A Better Understanding of the Social Science of Risk Perception is

Critical to Planning, Preparation, and Mitigation Actions

• Wind

– Quantifying the Effects of Wind on the Built Environment

– Computational Modeling for Wind Modeling for Performance-based

design

– Characterizing the Role of Wind in Creating Wave Action During Flood

Events

Many Scientific / Technical Challenges

Remain • Tornadoes

– Updated Tornado maps for Engineering Design Purposes

• Tornado Magnitude Bias (Underestimation) Due to a Sole Reliance on Damage

Indicators

• New technology for Direct Measurement of Tornado Wind speeds

• Improved Prediction of Tornado Formations, Magnitude, and Path

– Cost effective Engineering Solutions to Mitigate Design-level Tornado

Winds and Debris impact

• Earthquakes

– Cost-Effective Engineering Solutions for Retrofit of Existing Buildings

and Infrastructure Systems

– Earthquake Early Warning

– Induced Seismicity

Many Scientific / Technical Challenges

Remain

• Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires

– Hardening Structures to Ignition from the Outside

• The Role of Fences, Roofing, the Building Envelope, and Landscaping

– Understanding the Role of Embers in WUI Ignition of Structures

• In Contrast to the More Traditionally Considered Radiation and Contact

– Effective and Safe Fire-fighting Tactics

– Health Effects and Economic Consequences of Large Fires on Regional

populations

– Cascading Effects of Wild Fires and WUI Fires

• Subsequent Flooding Damaging Buildings and Infrastructure

– Effect of Droughts on Wildfire and WUI Threat Intensity and Frequency

Publicity – The Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems

• The Guide A Practical and Flexible Six-Step Method That Communities Can Use to Develop Resilience Plans Tailored to Community Goals, Prevailing Hazards, and Resources

• The Unique Approach The Communities Social and Economic Needs Drive Resilience Planning for Buildings and Infrastructure

• Special Considerations The Guide Emphasizes the Importance of Interdependencies between Buildings and Infrastructure and also the Cascading Effects That Can Cripple a Community

• Final Publication Due Mid-October, 2015. However, you can access a final draft at: http://www.nist.gov/el/building_materials/resilience/

Publicity: NIST-sponsored Community Resilience Center of Excellence

• Objective Provide decision-makers and professionals with methods and tools to support cost-effective buildings and infrastructure systems designs and investments that make our communities more resilient.

• Strategy Research to develop a systems-based modeling environment for evaluating the impacts of loss of function in the built environment and the effects on community response and recovery.

• Scientific Objectives

– Develop an integrated, multi-scale, computational modeling environment (NIST-CORE) for community systems to support development of new standards and tools for assessment and decision making

– Foster the development of data architectures and data management tools to enable disaster resilience planning

– Conduct field studies to validate resilience data architectures, data management tools, and models

• Awardees Colorado State University Leads a 10-institution Team – 5 Year Grant

http://www.nist.gov/coe/resilience/

Contact Information

Dr. Howard Harary

NIST

M/S 8200

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

U.S.A.

Howard.Harary@NIST.GOV

301 975 5900

www.nist.gov/el/