The Science and Politics of Climate Change

Fresh from the Hague

Robert T. WatsonChief Scientist & Director, ESSD

Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

December 6, 2000 - MC 12 Floor Gallery - 1:00 p.m.

Annual Temperature Trends, (°C / century) 1901-1999

Source: P. Jones, et. al. 2000.

Ch

ang

e in

tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

–0.2

Global Temperature ObservationsAnnual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999

The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH)Temperature Reconstruction (blue) and Instrumental Data (red) from

AD 1000-1999

Source: Mann et al. 1999.

Precipitation Trends (%)per Decade (1900-1994)

Green • = increasing / Brown • = decreasing

Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times

Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise

The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.

Comparison of Temperature Observationsand Model Simulations

Source: Tett, et.al., 1999 and Stott, et.al., 2000.

Percent of the Continental U.S. with A MuchAbove Normal Proportion of Total Annual Precipitation From 1-day Extreme Events

(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)

Source: Karl, et.al. 1996.

Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios

Scenarios

• Population (billion) 5.3 7.0 - 15.1

• World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr) 21 235 - 550

• Per capita income ratio: 16.1 1.5 - 4.2developed countries to developing countries

• Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a 16.7 1.4 - 5.9

• Primary energy (1018 J/US$) 351 514 - 2226

• Share of coal in primary energy (%)a 24 1 - 53

• Share of zero carbon in primary energy (%)a 18 28 - 35

1990 2100

a 1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.

0

2

4

6

8

10

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

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arbo

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ioxi

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mis

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sSR

ES

Scen

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s an

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atab

ase

Ran

ge(in

dex,

199

0=1)

IS92 range

A1, B2

A2

B1

Median

5%

95%

1990 range(all scenarios)

Maximum in Database

Minimum in Database

Total database range

Non

-inte

rven

tion

Non

-cla

ssifi

ed

Inte

rven

tion

Global CO2 Emissions from Energy & Industry

Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Maximum in database

Minimum in database

Glo

bal S

ulfu

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ioxi

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mis

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s(M

tS)

1930 1960 2020 2050 2100

1990 range

IS92

A2

B1

Sul

fur

- no

n-co

ntro

l, an

d no

n-cl

assi

fied

sce

nari

os

Sul

fur

- co

ntro

l

B2

20801990

Total database range

Range of sulfur-controlscenarios in the database

A1

Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)

Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Temperature from Models using

the SRES Emissions Scenarios

Year

Te

mp

e ra

ture

Ch

ang

e (

º C)

5

4

3

2

1

0

6

SAR

Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s

The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation for the 2050s

The projected change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record*

*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru.

El Niño years

La Niña years

Northern Hemisphere Winter

Potential Climate Change Impacts

Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.University of Southampton.

Annual Runoff

Crop Yield Change

Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice.

Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

97/1091 16

Climate Change and Ecological Systems

• Biological systems have already been affected by changes in climate at the regional scale

• The structure and functioning of ecological systems will be altered and the biological diversity will decrease forests, especially Boreal forests are vulnerable due

to changes in disturbance regimes (pests and fires) coral reefs are threatened by increases in

temperature the current terrestrial uptake of carbon will likely

diminish over time and forest systems may even become a source of carbon

Vector (insect)-borne Diseases

Source: Modified WHO, as cited in Stone (1995).

Disease Vector

Populationat risk

(millions) Present distribution

Likelihood ofaltered

distributionwith warming

Malaria mosquito 2,100 (sub)tropics

Schistosomiasis water snail 600 (sub)tropics Filariasis mosquito 900 (sub)tropics Onchocerciasis (river blindness)

black fly 90 Africa/Latin America

African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness)

tsetse fly 50 tropical Africa

Dengue mosquito unavailable tropics Yellow fever mosquito unavailable tropical South

America & Africa

Likely Very likely

People at Risk from a 44 cm Sea-level Rise by the 2080s

Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection

Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective.

Sea Level Rise CommitmentThermal expansion and land ice melt

after an initial 1% increase in CO2 for 70 years

The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Co-Benefits - Adaptation

• Many sectors (e.g., water resources and agriculture) are vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and droughts associated with ENSO events

• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate variability and can increase resilience to long-term climate change incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events into

sector management decisions integrated multi-sector watershed management and

appropriate water pricing policies elimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies infrastructure design (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads)

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Evo

lutio

n in

%

Parties' projections

SRES A1F1

SRES A1T

SRES A1B

SRES A2

SRES B1

SRES B2

OECD

IEA

US source LG

US source REF

US source HG

EU source

Average

Annex II

Annex I

EIT

Percentage Change in Emissionsfrom 1990 to 2010

Energy Emission Pathways and Stabilization Concentrations

Source: IPCC. 1995. Second Assessment Report. Working Group I. Cambridge.

Mitigation Options• Supply Side

Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas) Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%) Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.) Carbon dioxide sequestration Nuclear power

• Demand Side Transportation Commercial and residential buildings Industry

• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management Agroforestry

• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions

Policy Instruments• Policies, which may need regional or international

agreement, include: Energy pricing strategies and taxes Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions Internalizing environmental extranalities Tradable emissions permits--domestic and global Voluntary programs Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-up Education and training such as product advisories and labels

• Accelerated development of technologies as well as understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector

CarbonTrading

JI

MoreRenewables

MoreGEF

CleanTechnology

CleanFuel

EconomicInstruments

EnvironmentalStandards

RegionalAgreements

Sector Reform

Energy Efficiency

Rural Energy

InternalizingGlobal Externalities(supporting the post-Kyoto process)

Local/RegionalPollutionAbatement(to be strengthened)

Win-Win(in place)

Fuel For Thought: Strategy for The Year 2000

Co-Benefits - Mitigation• Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change

mitigation• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can

simultaneously address local and regional environmental issues and climate changeenergy sector

• indoor and outdoor air quality• regional acid deposition

transportation sector• outdoor air pollution• traffic congestion

agriculture and forestry• soil fertility• biodiversity and related ecological goods and services

Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)

Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.

Health Costs (TSP in China)

Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.

Surprise

Geoth.

Solar

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil & NGL

Coal

Trad Bio.0

500

1000

1500

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

exajoules

Energy SupplySustained Growth Scenario

Source: Shell International Limited.

Key Conclusions

• The Earth’s climate is changing - temperatures and sea level are increasing, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers are retreating, Arctic sea ice is thinning

• Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases

• The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities, are at least in part, the cause of the observed changes in climate

• The Earth’s mean annual surface temperature is projected to increase by about 1.5 to 6.0 degrees centigrade between 1990 and 2100, with land areas warming more than the oceans - precipitation patterns will change - sea level projected to rise about 50 cm (15-95 cm) by 2100

Key Conclusions

• Projected changes in climate will affect: water resources, especially in arid and semi-

arid lands agricultural productivity, especially in the

tropics and sub-tropics the structure and functioning, hence the goods

and services, of ecological systems human settlements due to sea level rise human health, e.g, vector-borne diseases

Key Conclusions

• A change in the Earth’s climate is inevitable

• The magnitude and rate of climate change will depend upon the adoption of policies, practices and technologies that influence greenhouse gas emissions

• Adaptation strategies can be adopted to reduce the vulnerability of socio-economic systems, ecological systems and human health to today’s climate variability and long-term human-induced climate change

Key Issues at COP-6

While there were significant differences between the European Union and the Umbrella Group (US, Japan, Canada, Australia) agreement was almost achieved in the Hague. A number of issues of concern to developing countries still need resolution.

• Flexibility mechanisms • LULUCF• Financing• Technology transfer • Capacity-building• Compliance• Adaptation

• capped or uncapped (EU and many developing countries want a cap in contrast to the US: affecting the size of market)

• secondary markets (EU and many developing countries want to eliminate secondary markets in the CDM - will decrease size of the market and incentives for private sector involvement)

• liability if a seller fails to deliver, i.e., seller vs buyer beware

• open market or regional allocations (ability of Africa and small countries to access the market)

• eligibility of LULUCF activities in CDM (next slide)

• adaptation fee - CDM or all three mechanisms (size of adaptation fund: ability to mainstream climate change into relevant sectors; ability to link near-and long-term issues)

Key Issues at COP-6

Flexibility Mechanisms (Art. 6, 12 and 17)

• Which, if any, LULUCF activities are eligible in the CDMafforestation, reforestation, slowing deforestation,

forest/rangeland/cropland management, agroforestryEU and some developing countries wanted to limit/eliminate

LULUCF activities in contrast to the US and other developing countries (LAC): will affect eligible activities under the PCF and access to CDM funds for clients

• How to address harvesting/regeneration and aggradation/ degradation (Art. 3.3 or 3.4)

• Whether to limit credits under Article 3.4 (EU and G77+China want to limit credits in contrast to the US, Canada, Japan)

• Whether the Business-as-usual uptake can be credited (US want discounted credits - EU and G77+China want no credit)

Key Issues at COP-6

LULUCF

• New window under the GEF for adaptation--key issue is who manages the window and establishes priorities-- the GEF Council/secretariat or the CDM Executive Board, accountable to the COP/MOP

• New Convention window under the GEF for technology transfer, capacity-building, national mitigation programs, etc. -- key issues are (i) the sources of funding, e.g., third GEF replenishment, voluntary contributions, ODA, fee on Article 17, and (ii) guidance by the COP

• Total annual resources for climate change funding, including the adaptation and Convention window, of $1 billion

Key Issues at COP-6

Financing

• Different views between developed and developing countries form an intergovernmental consultative group to

facilitate the sharing of information and assess approaches to address the barriers to technology transfer

• Funded under the Convention window of the GEF

Key Issues at COP-6

Technology Transfer

• Parties will establish a framework to guide the choice of activities that will assist Developing countries implement the Convention and participate in the Kyoto Protocol

• Funded under the Convention window of the GEF

Key Issues at COP-6

Capacity Building