The Scarcity Trap:The Scarcity Trap: material ... · PDF filePhil Purnell (iRI School of Civil...
Transcript of The Scarcity Trap:The Scarcity Trap: material ... · PDF filePhil Purnell (iRI School of Civil...
School of somethingFACULTY OF OTHERSRI and iRIFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT d ENGINEERINGFACULTY OF OTHERFACULTIES OF ENVIRONMENT and ENGINEERING
The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecksThe Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks on the road to low-carbon infrastructure
Phil Purnell (iRI School of Civil Engineering)Phil Purnell (iRI, School of Civil Engineering)Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment)Julia Steinberger (SRI)D id D (iRI) J th B h (SRI)David Dawson (iRI), Jonathan Busch (SRI)
Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012
Changing infrastructure
• 500 projects; £250 billion
Changing infrastructure
500 projects; £250 billion
• environmental impacts –reducing the carbon intensity
• The nature of our national infrastructure needs to be a primary driver in the move towards a low carbon economy …infrastructureeconomy …infrastructure must also be adaptable… to meet changing demand through the adoption of newthrough the adoption of new technologies and materials
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Changing material mix
• Embedding new low CO2
Changing material mix
Embedding new low CO2technology will introduce critical materials into infrastructure: e.g.
• Nd - motors/generators for wind turbines & electric vehicles
• Cr – low CO2 reinforced concrete
• Not just elements: e.g. aggregates, components, lubricants, polymerspolymers…
http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm
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Changing material mix
• Scale of infrastructure means
Changing material mix
Scale of infrastructure means that change in demand can be a step-changeg
• Multiples, not fractions• e g low CO2 concrete: move to 50%e.g. low CO2 concrete: move to 50%
stainless steel rebar would double EU Cr imports; move to 10% Ti-based cathodic protection could x10 EU Ti imports.p p
• Previously abundant materials may become criticaly
http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm
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CrCr: India, : India, Kaz’stanKaz’stan, Iran, Iran
NdNd: China : China (97%)(97%)
CrCr: SA, : SA, ZimbabweZimbabwe
•• VulnerabilityVulnerability: EU/UK are often 100% importers• Passive/reactive price & supply volatility: GeopoliticalPassive/reactive price & supply volatility: Geopolitical
issuesMap source: http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/tajani/hot-topics/raw-materials/index_en.htm 5
GeopoliticsGeopolitics
“The US and the EU asked Beijing to clarify its policy on mineral exports after China exports after China stopped shipping to Japan.
“The stoppage followed a spat between China and Japan last month over islands whose ownership is disputed ”
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ownership is disputed.
How do we assure supply?
• Strategic stockpiling
How do we assure supply?
Strategic stockpiling
• Trade agreements
• Recycling• collection vs. “mining
i f t t ”infrastructure”• urban mining, urban ores,
urban concentrates “Some metal has more urban concentrates…
• where, when, in what state are the stocks?
Some metal has more on‐surface stock than
underground stock”a e t e stoc sK HALADA, National Institute for
Materials Science, Japan7
Existing models: Stocks & FlowsExisting models: Stocks & Flows
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S&F LimitationsS&F Limitations
• One substance at a time
• Existing infrastructure = aggregate stock of aExisting infrastructure aggregate stock of a given substance; no information on location
Properties or q alit of the s bstances (e g• Properties or quality of the substances (e.g. Cr as element or alloy) are not generally explicitly accounted forexplicitly accounted for.
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The Project: A New Model
• the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;
The Project: A New Model
the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;
• the stocks of materials contained within infrastructure during operation and demolition;infrastructure, during operation and demolition;
• the location and properties of these materials and the components they are a part of;the components they are a part of;
• the criticality of key materials, in terms of s bstit tabilit and s ppl riskssubstitutability and supply risks;
• the interactions between these factors.
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2The Project: Methodology2The Project: Methodology
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2Potential initial case studies2
• Low carbon concretes • Move to wind power, tidal
Potential initial case studies
(Halcrow)
• Move to fibre optic control and HVDC in power distribution
pgeneration etc (Halcrow)
• Treatment at source vscentralised treatment, anaerobicHVDC in power distribution
(National Grid)
• New rail electrification (Halcrow)
centralised treatment, anaerobic digestion & CHP (United Utilities/Halcrow)
• Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)(Halcrow)
• Move to electric vehicles (U.Newcastle)
• Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)
• Active comms on road infrastructure (Halcrow)
• Energy Storage – bulk vsdecentralised (National Grid)
• Underground vs overground• Decision matrix…
U de g ou d s o e g ou dconducters (National Grid)
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2Scoring criteria2
• Data availability – S&F of materials and components
Scoring criteria
Data availability S&F of materials and components
• Technical competence – expertise within team
• Scale likelihood & specificity of interventionScale, likelihood & specificity of intervention
• Collaborators on board
• Politics novelty and impact in multiple sectors the• Politics, novelty and impact in multiple sectors – the ‘wow’ factor
• Cross-over with known criticalities or scarcities
• Complexity vs simplicity – system boundary clearly defined?
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2Chosen case studies2
Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticality
Chosen case studies
Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticalityWind turbinesWind turbines + low-CO2 reinforced
concrete
Electric vehiclesElectric vehicles
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Model StructureModel Structure
Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials
Abstract Structure: Components: Materials Abstract stock of the
required service level
Structure:physical
stock of infra-structure that
Components: physical stock
of infrastructure parts that
Materials stocks
contained in both
directly supplies the
service
pindirectly
provide the service
infrastructure and
components
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Case study: wind powerCase study: wind power
Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials
Wind Power Structures: Components: NeodymiumWind Power Structures:Onshore and offshore wind
turbines
Components: Permanent
magnet generators
Neodymium
g(PMGs); non-
PMGs
Excluded: Transmission; Other renewables generation
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Model Structure: dynamic S&FModel Structure: dynamic S&F
Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials
I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)
Infrastructure stock
Structure stock
Component stock
Materials stockstock
K(i) (t)stock
K(s) (t)stock
K(c) (t)stock
K(m) (t)
O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)
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Model Structure: lifetimesModel Structure: lifetimes
Infrastructure Technology MaterialsInfrastructure Technology Materials
I(s) (t) I(c) (t) I(m) (t)
Infrastructure stock
Structure stock
Component stock
Materials stockgy
mix
nt mi
x
ntens
ity
stock
K(i) (t)stock
K(s) (t)stock
K(c) (t)stock
K(m) (t)
Tech
nolog
Comp
one
Mater
ial in
O(s) (t) O(c) (t) O(m) (t)
St t lif ti C t lif ti M t i l lif ti
T C M18
Structure lifetimeL (s) (t, t0)
Component lifetimeL (c) (t, t0)
Material lifetimeL (m) (t, t0)
Scenario input: wind powerScenario input: wind power
Future UK wind generation (DECC, 2010)
Scenarios also contain technology mix (from which materials mix iswhich materials mix is derived)
~ current UK electricity capacity
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Results – Nd demandResults Nd demand
Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind power technology
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Results – Nd demand (<2025)Results Nd demand (<2025)
Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind power technology
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Future Additions: Criticality?Future Additions: Criticality?
UK Low Carbon Technology Share of World Production
4%
5%
on
3%
4%
d pr
oduc
tio
Wi d % d
2%
of w
orld
Nd Wind % prod
Car % prodCombined %
1%Shar
e o
220%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Scenario input – electric vehiclesScenario input electric vehicles
~ current UK vehicles registered
Future UK electric vehicles (total)
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Future UK electric vehicles (total)
Results – Li demandResults Li demand
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Results – Pt potential recyclateResults Pt potential recyclate
Lowest annual peak is equivalent to£6 billion (present
k t i )market price)
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2Summary2Summary
• Potential for low-CO2 infrastructure roll-out to be disruptedPotential for low CO2 infrastructure roll out to be disrupted by materials criticality: thus assessments of vulnerability need to be inniiated to inform policy decisions
• Enhanced stocks & flows models can highlight likely criticalities: advanced models will enumerate vulnerability
A ll ‘ t i ’ t ti l f i ifi t• As well as ‘scare stories’, potential for significant resource recovery from the infrastructure can also be identified
• Work in progressWork in progress…
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