The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050 Low Carbon Scenarios · The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050...
20
The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050 Low Carbon Scenarios David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC. Professor and Director, Kunbi Adetona, MSc. PhD Student, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) IniGaGve, Univ. of Calgary. Web: www.cesarnet.ca Email: [email protected] Canadian Museum of Nature, ORawa – Sept 13, 2017 THE ROLE OF FOREST BIOENERGY IN CANADA’S ENERGY FUTURE
Transcript of The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050 Low Carbon Scenarios · The Role of Forest Bioenergy in 2050...
TheRoleofForestBioenergyin
2050LowCarbonScenariosDavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,
KunbiAdetona,MSc.PhDStudent,
CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)IniGaGve,Univ.ofCalgary.Web:www.cesarnet.caEmail:[email protected]
CanadianMuseumofNature,ORawa–Sept13,2017
THEROLEOFFORESTBIOENERGYINCANADA’SENERGYFUTURE
Canada’sGreenhouseGas(GHG)Emissions&Targets
Energy–TransportaGon[202]
1990 2010 20300
200
400
600
800
MtC
O2e/yr
Year 2040
Energy–StaGonary[328]
Energy–FugiGve[57]
205020202000
Ind.proc.&prod.Use[51]
Agriculture[59]
Agriculture Waste[25]
Sept2017
[2015GHGsinMtCO2e/yr]
[722]
ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports
EnergySystems(81%)
2009Copenhagen1997Kyoto
Commitment
-17%
-30%
-65%
-90%
2015Paris
2015Paris
Canada’sGHGChallenge
FailedFailed
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
EnergySectors(uses4,000PJ)
But…Energyflowsaren’ttheproblem:
CFLOWSARE…
1oEnergy(29,000PJ)
947PJ
DemandSectors(uses9,000PJ)
(16,000PJ)
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON
HowwouldtheCflowschangeifallAgricultureandForestrywere
consideredaspartofenergysystems?
0
10
20
30KgC/G
J
Biom
ass
Coal
Oil
NGas
TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON
AnthropogenicCarbonFlows–Canada,2013FOOD,FIBRE,FUEL&ELECTRICITY
200MtC
FUEL&ELECTRICITY
200MtC
41%more1ocarbonflow
Sun
CO2
" IncludingFood&FibrepathwaysinCanada’senergysystemsincreasesCflowby41%,andthataddiGonalCisextractedfromair;
NOTE
" CflowthroughAgric.&Forestry(171MtCor628MtCO2)issimilartooilrecovery(164MtCor601MtCO2).
" MostofbiomassCreturnstotheatmosphere(notasaGHG).But,someCpassesthrough‘tempor-ary’storage(For:15MtC,600PJ).
ForestBiomassResourcePotenGal
500PJ/yr
PJ/yr MtC/yr
ForestResidues 370 10
UnusedAAC 600 16
Bugwood ? ?
FastGrowingtrees ? ?
TOTAL ~1000+ ~26+
PrimaryEnergy&CarbonAvailable
50%
30%
300PJ/yr
ConversionEfficiencytoBiofuel
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
PersonalTransportaGon
Gasoline
Diesel
AviaGon
Ethanol1,372PJ
Fuel
2013 2050
Electric,Shared,AutonomousVehicles
Bio-basedjetfuel(need200+PJ/yr)
FreightTransportaGon
1,265PJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
CanadaFreight_Transport transportation energyusebyfuelType
NGL
electricity
ethanol
biodiesel
CNG
aviation_turbo_fuel
aviation_gasoline
heavy_fuel_oil
diesel_fuel_oil
Diesel
Gasoline
HeavyFuelOil
AviaGon
Fuel
2013 2050
LighterVehiclesandUrbanVehicles:Electric
Semi-trucksforheavy,LDTransport
Biojet?Electric
H2FuelCellelectric
CNG#RNG
DME(Upto
500PJ/yr)
Biomass
NG
Electricity
Oil
ResidenGalBuildings(2013)
1,592PJ
Fuel
ElectricHeatPumps
?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS
2013 2050
Commercial&InsGt.Bldgs
942PJ NGL
NaturalGas
Electricity
FuelOil
Fuel
2013 2050
ElectricHeatPumps(esp.groundsource)
?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS
EnergyUsingIndustries
2,661PJ
Coal/Petcoke
NG
Biomass
NGL
Electricity
FuelOil
Fuel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Canadaindustrial energyusebyenrEndUseNFIndAll
Electrolysis_Other_MetalsElectrolysisAnode_ManufacturingElectrolysis_AluminumWater_HeatingSteam_and_Water_HeatingProcess_HeatElectric_ArcingProcess_Heat_and_SteamelecGenSteamSpace_ConditioningLightingMotive
MoGve
Electricity
Steam
ProcessHeat
&Steam
ProcessHeatWaterHeaGng
SpaceCondiGoning
Electrolysis
EndUse
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Canadaindustrial energyusebycanReg
Fertilizer_Prd
Smelt_refin
Cement
Mining
Forestry
Other_Man
Iron_Steel
Chemicals
Pulp_Paper
Chemicals
OtherManufact-
uring
Mining
ConstrucGon
Pulp&Paper
Iron
SmeltRefiningFerGlizer
Sector
2013 2050
SmallmodularNuclearCHP
CNGCHP,coupledtoCCS
BiomassorRNGCHP,ideallycoupledtoCCS
ElectrificaGon
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
TheSystemsChallenge
WhatdoestheAtmosphereno\ce?
IfforestbiomassisleHinforest:
Ifforestbiomassremovedtomakebiofuels:
Versus
Foravibrantforestbioenergysectorinthefuture,thesystemslevel
quesConsmustbeaddressednow.
0
200
400
600
800
MtC
O2e/yr
Agriculture
1000
1990 2010Year 2000
AddingtheForestryFactor
HumanImpactonForestLandRemainingForestLand(FLFL)
+EmissionsfromCanada’sHarvestedWoodProducts
+EmissionsfromLargeForestFires(nothumancaused)
ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports,includingvaluesprovidedforLULUCFinthe2017NIR
Conclusions1. CanadahassignificantFeedstockresources2. The2050opportuniGesforbioenergy/
biofuels:! AviaGonFuels! Heavytruckingfuels(lotsofcompeGGon)! CombinedHeatandPower(esp.withCCS)
3. CriGcalneedstoday:! FigureoutfeedstocklogisGcs! Improveconversionefficiency,reducecosts! AddresstheSystemsChallengeheadon
