New Crop Varieties and Climate Chane Adaptation, IAAE symposium 2015
The role of ex situ crop diversity conservation in adaptation to climate change
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Transcript of The role of ex situ crop diversity conservation in adaptation to climate change
Adapting to climate change:Adapting to climate change:
The importance ofThe importance ofex situex situ conservation conservation
of crop genetic diversityof crop genetic diversity
Luigi GuarinoGlobal Crop Diversity Trust
Rome, Italy
http://croptrust.org
•Climate change
•Water shortage
•Energy limitations and instability
•Population growth
•Development pressures
•Low stockpiles
•High food prices
•Under-investment in agricultural research
Change in Water Availabilityunder climate change, population growth and industrialization
1961-1990
Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm
Source: BBC, Tuesday, 8 December 2009. The key effects of climate change. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7821082.stm
Change in Water Availabilityunder climate change, population growth and industrialization
2070s
Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2050 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006).
Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.
Change in Temperature
Likelihood (in percent) that the summer average temperature in 2090 will exceed the highest summer temperature ever observed (1900-2006).
Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.
Change in Temperature
Distributions of average (summer) temperature for 20th century (blue), and climate model projections for 2080-2100 (red) (y=number of summers, x=departure from long-term 20th
century mean)
Source: Battisti, D.S., and R.L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.
Change in Temperature
Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003
Climate Change and Crop Adaptation
Percentage overlap between historical and 2025 (left), 2050 (middle), and 2075 (right) simulated growing season average temperature at over African maize
area. Darkblue colors represent 100% overlap between past and future climates, dark red
colors represent 0% overlap
Overlap of Future Temperatures with Present
average growing season
temperatures, Sub-Saharan Africa
Perc
ent
Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003
Sources of Cereal Production Growth(2000-50)
EAP: East Asia and the Pacific; MENA: Middle East and North Africa; LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Hubert et al. 2010. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050. Crop Sci 50.
6 Components of Increasing Food Supplies
Source: adapted from Evans L.T. 2000. Feeding the Ten Billion: Plants and Population Growth. Cambridge University Press
Increase area of land under cultivation
Reduce use of grains fed to animals
Reduce post-harvest losses
Replace lower yielding crops with higher yielding ones
Increase yield on existing lands, per crop
Increase number of crops grown on the land (e.g. shorter season
crops)
Crop diversity needed for breeding
Crop diversityindirectly needed
We Must Prepare for the Storm
•Collect remaining diversity from the field
•Conserve it – securely and permanently
•Screen it for traits essential to meet climate change, water, energy and food security challenges – and also help mitigate climate change!
•Breed new climate-ready crop varieties
Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs
2055
Arachis (peanut, groundnut)
Current
2055
Source: Jarvis, A., Ferguson, M., Williams, D., Guarino, L., Jones, P., Stalker, H., Valls, J., Pittman, R., Simpson, C. & Bramel, P. 2003. Biogeography of Wild Arachis: Assessing Conservation Status and Setting Future Priorities. Crop Science 43, 1100-
1108.
Source: Jarvis A., Ramirez J., Zapata E., and Guevara E. 2008. Use of GBIF data for conserving and adapting agricultural biodiversity in the face of climate change. Powerpoint Presentation.
Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs
Source: Jarvis A. 2009. personal communication.
Impacts of Climate Change on CWRs
•Storage of unique samples in 2 facilities meeting international standards
•Safety back-up in Svalbard
•Secure funding
•Information system
•Facilitated access and benefit sharing (International Treaty on PGRFA)
A Global Ex Situ System
Source: adapted from Palacios XF. 1998. Contribution to the Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in the Area of Plant Genetic Resources. Rep. 7, Rev. 1, UN Food. Agric. Org. Comm. Genet. Resour. Food Agric., Rome, Italy. taken from Fowler C. and Hodgkin T. 2004. Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: Assessing Global Availability. Annu Rev Environ
Resour 29: 10.1-10.37.
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10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Stat
es
Global interdependenceFood Energy Supply (calories/day)
= % genetic resources of crops not indigenous to country
= % genetic resources of crops indigenous to country
Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication
Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat
Country sources - 49 landraces and 66 cultivars from 20 countries
Countries of release - 160 cultivars in 35 countries
Global Interdependence: “Veery” Wheat
Source: Payne T. 2009. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center. personal communication; Rajaram S. 2009. personal communication.
Source: Burke, M.B., et al., Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environ. Change (2009), doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.04.003
Climate Change and Crop Adaptation
% of World Ex Situ Collection
Countries Cassava Maize PotatoSweet Potato
Wheat
Brazil 18 3 0 5 4
China 0 6 0 4 5
India 8 2 5 0.1 8
Philippines 0.2 1 0 1 0
USA 0.3 8 4 4 7
Source: Wiews 2009
Conservation
Use
Svalbard Global Seed Vault
Safety backup
Long term storage: CG Centres, regional
organizations
Active national etc. collections
Breeding/working collections
Farmers
Regeneration(Regeneration, Characterization, Safety Duplication)
•90,000 accessions
•230 collections
•100 institutes
•67 countries
Photos: Instituto Nacional Autonomo de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIAP). 2009.
Photo: Mari Tefre; Global Crop Diversity Trust
•300,000 accessions deposited with support from Trust
•Long-term support from Trust for Vault operations at $150,000 pa
Global Safety BackupSvalbard Global Seed Vault
Photo: Global Crop Diversity Trust; Stattsbygg
Photo: Mari Tefre; Global Crop Diversity Trust
Long-term Sustainable Funding
Photos: Global Crop Diversity Trust, IRRI Philippines
•15 international collections managed by CGIAR Centers
•2 collections at Secretariat of the Pacific Community
•Svalbard Global Seed Vault
•Total $1.8 million annually
rice, bean, yam, sorghum, banana, grasspea, cassava, wheat, barley, pearl millet, faba bean, lentil, forage crops
Genebank Data Management Software
Source: USDA-ARS. 2009. GRIN-Global_manual_v1-022409.pdf
Source: Bioversity International 2009. http://www.global-alis.org/
Global Portal for Accession-level Information
Smart Collecting Strategies
Rare traits
Threat assessment: use climate change models to determine vulnerability of
populations
Rare traits: compare
distribution with environmental
factors
Areas of species
richness not previously sampled
Source: Jarvis A. 2008. Protocol for Gap Analysis in Wild Species. Draft Report for the Global Crop Diversity Trust.
Endowing a Global System for a Crop
The Global Crop Diversity Trust“providing a permanent source of funds to support the
long-term conservation of the ex-situ germplasm on which the world depends for food security”