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MARKET INTELLIGENCE • ANALYSIS • BENCHMARKING ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc. The Role of EVs in Urban Mobility January 28, 2014 John Gartner Research Director, Smart Transportation Navigant Research
Transcript of The Role of EVs in Urban Mobility - Automotive World › wp-content › uploads › 2013 › 07 ›...
M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A L Y S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
The Role of EVs in Urban Mobility January 28, 2014
John Gartner Research Director, Smart Transportation Navigant Research
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
» Economic rebound continues, LDV sales returning » EVs increasing, but will be less than 1% of new vehicle sales in 2014 » Hybrid sales in North America growing to 1 million annually by 2020 » Fuel cells moving closer to commercialization
2014 E-Mobility Overview
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
» Market has recovered from 2008 recession » Peak is likely to be 257 million vehicles on the road, 18 million in sales
LDV Sales and Registrations Approaching Peak
3
Light Duty Vehicles, United States: 2008-2022
(Sources: Navigant Research, U.S. Department of Transportation)
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11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
255
260
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(Millions)(M
illio
ns)
LDV Registrations
LDV Sales
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
» Smaller cars for easier parking » Urbanization results in greater mass transit, two-wheeler sales » Carsharing impacts vehicle sales and vehicle miles traveled
Consumer Attitudes Toward Changing Vehicles
4
Personal Vehicle Purchase Avoidance from Carsharing, North America: 2014-2020
(Source: Navigant Research)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(Veh
icle
s)
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
BEV and LDV Sales, North America: 2013-2022
BEVs Outpace Other LDV Sales
(Source: Navigant Research)
» BEV sales increase by 20.3%, while LDVs grow by just 1.2%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
16,500,000
17,000,000
17,500,000
18,000,000
18,500,000
19,000,000
19,500,000
20,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
BEVs
LDVs
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
» PEV sales are ahead of hybrids compared to launch
PEVs To Gain Ground on HEVs
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HEV and PEV Sales, United States: 2011-2022
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Hybrids
PEVs
(Sources: Navigant Research, U.S. Department of Transportation, Hybridcars.com)
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
» Large format batteries will follow the trend of small format batteries » $180/kWh price (not cost) is a very achievable goal by 2020
Li-ion Battery Small Format and Large Format Forecast
7
(Source: Navigant Research)
Li-ion Battery Pricing: 2009-2020
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($/k
Wh)
Consumer Electronics Li-ion Battery Price
Large Format Li-ion Battery Price
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
» LDV sales stagnate starting in 2018 » Fewer EV repairs due to conversion to electronics » Cars fight for room
› E-bikes, scooters, and motorcycles rising » Intelligent infrastructure evolving (V2X communications) » Big data is everywhere » Fuel efficiency requirements from CAFE, et al.
Automakers Reacting to a Changing World
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
» Industry inertia » Uncertainty in value of
vehicle data » Competition from potential
partners » Longer vehicle design cycle
Potential Obstacles
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
» Automakers look to diversify revenue with new services: › Home energy management › EV charging with solar › Utility services (V2G) › Infotainment/telematics › Carsharing programs
Remaking the Automaker
(Source: Ford Motor Company)
©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
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