The Role of Computing in Climate Science

Dr. Robert Bishop

WMO Information System (WIS)

Workshop on Information Access Enablers

Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010

Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!

Icelandic Ash Cloud: Mantle-Crust-Glacier-RiversWeather-Climate-Agriculture-Economy-Society

The Bigger Picture

CLIMATE

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTH

SOLAR SYSTEM

CIVILISATION

21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration

The Whole Earth – An Holistic Approach

• Seamless• Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)• Multi-science (physical & socio-economic)

The New Grand Challenge

We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos

for over 200 years!• In Research• In Research Funding• In Publishing• In Conferences • In University Faculties • In Government Departments

1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations

Yokohama Earth Simulator Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6

Best Dedicated Climate Machines(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)

Worldwide

Ranking

Organisation

Country

Peak

Teraflops Sustained

Teraflops Supplier

# 31 JAMSTEC JAPAN 131.07 122.40

NEC

SX-9

# 33 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90

IBM

Power 575

# 34 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90

IBM

Power 575

# 35 DKRZ GY 151.60 115.90

IBM

Power 575

# 54 NAVO USA 117.13 90.84

CRAY

XT5

We need to use ‘best in class’ technology to deal with the

complexity of weather, climate, environment and their socio-

economic interaction,hence ……

ICES: a peak performance facility

• Hardware

• Software

• Data

• Science

• People

ICES Top Priorities

• Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 5 of machines worldwide• Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to

national and regional Earth & Climate centres worldwide• Enable climate science to reach comparable levels of spatial

and temporal resolution as NWP• Evolve open source Earth system models by integrating

elements from climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences• Drive breakout hierarchy of nextgen Earth-Climate models• Support training of next generation ‘holistic thinkers’• Provide info-briefings on Earth & Climate to International Organisations & NGOs

ICES and Disaster Risk Management

•Community Resilience

•Adaptation & Mitigation

•Planning & Relief

Strategies

•Precursor Signals

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

CLIMATE & WEATHER

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

ICES and Geoengineering

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

CLIMATE & WEATHER

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

•Climate Remediation

•CO2 Removal

•Solar Radiation Management

•Unexpected Consequences

Proposed ICES Computing Resources• Dedicated High Performance Computing - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)

• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion & image analysis - auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering

• Low cost power availability (nuclear, hydro, solar)• Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU• Green Computing, Cloud Computing• Citizen Science Computing• Google Earth, WolframAlpha

HPC Computing Architectures (We need to compute ~ 1000 x real-time)

• Homogeneous vs heterogeneous • Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom• Programming languages, software tools & middleware• Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory• Power management, flops/watt• Silicon-Photonics. • Quantum?

Earth Modelling Software• Grid Size• Parameterisation• Algorithm development• Coupling, linkages & feedbacks• Representation of physical processes• Integration of the socio-economic processes• Initial & boundary condition determination• Uncertainty estimates & management • Statistical & ensemble methods• Hierarchy of models• Multi-models• Stochastics• Nextgen

Earth Data Challenges

• Data assimilation• Historical data re-analysis• Data access, archiving & meta-data• Data quality control & harmonisation• Data availability (in situ, remote sensing)• Sparse data (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica)• Model output-data validation & verification• Model output-data storage (or re-compute?)

Observation & Data Sources

• Airborne & Satellite Remote Sensing: Envisat, MeteoSat, SMOS, GOCE, GOES-R, LandSat, SBIRS

• In Situ: AWS, Radar, Lidar, Broadband Seismic

• Mobile: Aircraft, Ships, Argo Buoys, Autos? Cell Phones?

• Socio-economic: GDP, Land Use, Food, Water Resources, Energy, etc.

Core Actor’s Network

• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)• Group on Earth Observations (GEO)• European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)• National Meteorology Bureaus• National Geological Surveys • National Climate Centres• Research Universities

Extended Actor’s Network

• ESA, NASA, JAXA, EUMETSAT, CGMS • IOC, 21stC-OI, SIO, WHC, JAMSTEC• BGS, BRGM, USGS, ERI• GEOSS, GCOS, GMES• ENES, ACRE, ESFRI• CSIRO, CALIT2, NCAR, COLA• CNRS (CC-IN2P3), PRACE• UK Agencies: DEFRA, DECC• US Agencies: NOAA, NSF, DOE, DOD

ICES Organisation Structure

• Geneva-based • Not-for-profit Foundation• Public-Private Partnership• Broad Scientific Participation • Inter-disciplinary Governance• Participation by Int’l Organisations• Experts Committee, Ethics Committee

Why Public-Private Partnership?

• Fast• Agile• Simple• Flexible• Responsive• Non-political• Independent• New sources of funding

Why Geneva?

• International city, neutral country, trusted • Science literate, educational infrastructure• Proximity to global policy bodies:

UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF WHO, UNHCR, ICRC

WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU

• Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities

ICES Funding

• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private

- overflow capacity for national and regional centres- development of nextgen integrated climate/Earth models

• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, and 1/3 products and services, such as:

- test bed for large scale construction projects- disaster risk management

- industry specific services- policy-making support- decision support- ‘what if’ scenarios- geoengineering

ICES Foundation MembersBoard members:Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer

Bankers: UBS

Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers

Expert Committee:Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMOProf. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva Director, Institute for Environmental SciencesProf. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng. Ecole Polytechnique Federal LausanneDr. Michael Rast Head of Programme Planning Office Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes European Space Agency

Ethics Committee: tba

Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.

Recent Major Natural Disasters Date Country Lives Lost Cause

April-May 2010 Iceland - volcanic ash cloud

April 2010 China 2000+ 6.9 quake

April 2010 Brazil 200+ rain, mudslides

March 2010 Uganda 350+ rain, mudslides

Feb 2010 France 50+ tempest, sea walls

Feb 2010 Chile 700+ 8.8 quake, tsunami

Jan 2010 Haiti 250,000+ 7.0 quake

April 2009 Italy 300+ 6.3 quake

Feb 2009 Australia 250+ bushfires

May 2008 China 70,000+ 8.0 quake

Aug 2005 USA 1,800+ hurricane, levees

Dec 2004 Indonesia 225,000+ 9.3 quake, tsunami

Aug 2003 Europe 30,000+ heat wave

The Father of Modern Meteorology

Before the Age of ComputingIn 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British

mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers

to sit in tiers around the interior circumference of a giant globe.

ICES and Society

•Research•Integration

•Development•Discovery & Innovation

•Communications•Teaching•Training

ENVIRONMENT

BIOSPHERE

EARTHSYSTEM

CLIMATE & WEATHER

SOCIALSYSTEMS

SOLARSYSTEM

ICES in a Nutshell• Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates

climate, weather, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic sciences

• Next-generation modelling and simulation techniques• Support for national & regional climate centres• Teaching, training, capacity building• Decision support, communications• Dedicated supercomputing• Global networking• Visual intensity

~200 professionals including seconded experts

Mid-1970s

Atmosphere

Mid-1980s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Early 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

Late 1990s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Present Day

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Early 2010s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea Ice

SulphateAerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

DynamicVegetation

AtmosphericChemistry

Weather

Climate Change

ClimateVariability

Extending Weather & Climate Observations

Evolution of Forecasting Accuracy

from ECMWF

Weather & Climate Communities(A Convergence of Methodologies)

• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days

ECMWF today: 5~10 days Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level

• Climate modelling: WCRP today: 100~1000 years

Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level

• The 10-year Challenge: Seasonal to inter-annual predictions

Global to regional to local forecastingCoarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolutionExtreme weather early warning