THE ROAD TO WORLD WAR ONE

ORWho did what to whom first,

and why? (Maybe)

IN MANY WAYS IN 1914 THERE WAS A “NEW EUROPE”

WITH SOME BITS CRUMBLING

Assassination in Sarajevo

• JUNE 28 1914

• Gavrilo Princip, a nineteen-year-old student assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand heir to the Austrian throne and his wife in their car.

• There were a number of secret societies in the Balkans. One of these was ‘the BLACK HAND’, trying to absorb Bosnia into Serbia.

• Princip was closely involved with a Serb organization called ‘Union or Death’ better known as the Black Hand. Black Hand had a young group as its members, a young group of Bosnian Serbs, which had dedicated their lives to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand

Assassination in Sarajevo

THE BALKANS • The annexation of Bosnia

and Herzegovina into the Austro/Hungarian Empire happened on October 6, 1908. The reasons for this were complicated. One purpose was to remove any hopes Turkey might have for getting the provinces back.

• However, the annexation aroused mixed feelings in Europe.

• Russia was upset because Austria had promised to help Russia in her military problems before the annexation.

• Austria paid Turkey a cash settlement. However the Serbs wanted control of the provinces.

Reaction in Austria

• Franz Ferdinand not very popular in Austria and no great immediate cry for revenge.

• However, the Austrian Government suspected that Serbia was behind the killing and that Serbian Nationalism (AND NATIONALISM SPREADING TO HUNGARY) posed a threat to the foundations of the Austrian Empire.

• Austria issued an ultimatum to Serbia which was a threat to Serbia’s existence as a sovereign state.

• Serbia did not want war but ordered mobilization of their army.

HUNGARIAN NATIONALISM FEARED BY VIENNA

The Dominos Fall• In reaction Austria mobilized its army• Russia partially mobilized its army in a show

of support for Serbia.• Russia was now afraid of Prussia joining to

help Austria so it placed all its armies in a state of readiness.

• Austria Hungary now fully mobilizes to face the Russian threat.

• Germans issued an ultimatum ordering Russia to stand down-declared war on Austria’s side on 1st August.

• France ordered general mobilization: 3rd August Germany declared war on them.

• 4th August Germany invaded Belgium.• By Mid-night Germany and Great Britain were

at war.• No one went to war for the sake of

Franz-Ferdinand

A “jolly Little War” was the way to solve European

Diplomacy

• War expected to be 6-10 weeks.(1859 Solferino, Magenta: 1866 Prussia-Austria: 1871 France-Prussia)

• Wars did not really involve the civilian population

• Wars kept people’s minds away from ‘other’ things.

• BUT INDUSTRIAL WAR HAD ARRIVED

War MobilizationPatriotic Celebrations and Dancing in the

Streets(Join up before you miss it)

How did they get to this situation?

• Old European alliances now unstable as relative strengths of Countries changed.

• Huge rising economic and military power of Germany. (Made itself a country by war)

• As long as Bismarck was chancellor his policy was to uphold the status quo and prevent an anti-German coalition forming by

• a) Developing a series of alliances.

• b) Believing it was impossible to make France friendly he had to forestall a war of revenge by depriving France of allies.

Stupidity (Insanity) [def] – Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results

DREIKAISERBUND 1872-1873 (Three Imperial Alliance)

• League of the Three Emperors• Not a formal alliance• Talking shop of reactionary countries

interested in retaining the system in place: and keeping them from French republican influence.

• Germany• Russia• Austria-Hungary

TRIPLE ALLIANCE

• France recovering faster than Bismarck first thought.

• To deprive France of the most likely ally: offered Austria alliance in 1879 guaranteeing her against attack by Russia

• Italy joined the Triple alliance in 1882 (Now safe from Austria)

• Russia drawn into a new Dreikaiserbund

QUADRUPLE ALLIANCE

Diplomatic Genius of Bismarck

• Complicated checks and balances: it achieved.

• A) Deprived France of allies.

• B) Established Germany as a protector of the ‘status quo’.

• C) Placated the ‘Junkers’ in Germany by cementing conservative regimes in place despite the huge increase in an industrial middle class.

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However: A New Kaiser (Wilhelm II) 1888

• (1859 - 1941) was born as Friedrich Wilhelm Viktor Albert von Hohenzollern. He was born in Berlin to Crown Prince Friedrich and his wife, Britain's Princess Royal, Victoria.

• His mother was the aunt of Empress Alexandra (the wife of Tsar Nicholas II), and the sister of King Edward VII.

• Queen Victoria was his grandmother.

Birth damaged him physically, leading to a withered left arm, which he tried with some success to conceal.

• Recent analyses of records of his birth in the former Imperial Archives have also suggested that he may have experienced some brain trauma, possibly leading to some brain damage.

• Historians are divided on whether such a mental incapacity may have contributed to his frequently aggressive, tactless, headstrong, and occasionally bullying approach to problems and people, which was evident in both his personal and political lives.

Such an approach certainly marred German policy under his leadership, most notably in his dismissal of his cautious chancellor, Otto von Bismarck

A New Strategy

• Kaiser Wilhelm believed that Bismarck’s cautious strategy was not right for the greatest military and economic power on the Continent of Europe. (But Germany was a young country, ruled by an aristocratic clique, and now without restraint.

• This new strategy involved dropping the alliance with Russia and strengthening the one with Austria. In 1887 he declined to renew the Re-insurance pact with Russia which assured no war between the two countries.

• This new course would inevitably force Russia and France together to counter the rising Germanic power.

But Germany had a cunning plan (The

Schlieffen Plan)• Problem: Bismarck’s

alliances aimed at preventing a war on two fronts.

• Solution: (Used Twice) A two front war can be fought as long as one is a very quick

• Russia was the long term problem so France had to be dealt with first and quickly.

Side Note• A) The assumption by Germany is that any

war with Russia would automatically involve war with France.

• B) Germany needed a quick war with France as any expansion of its army to face two enemies would involve a dilution of the Prussian officer corps.

• C) Expansion of the German army would also drag in many of the urban proletariat as soldiers which the ruling class thought was internally dangerous.

• German army very strong but domestic problems forced it to go for ‘knock out blows’.

• Germany needed an accommodation with Britain and a treaty with Italy to keep them out of any conflict.

Another Cunning German Plan

• Problem • A) Britain would not countenance a

German policy so obviously aimed at her economic life-lines.

• B) Italy was very much a ‘fair weather’ friend and could not go against France or Britain who both had Mediterranean interests.

• Answer • A) Build a powerful fleet to challenge

Britain to keep them out of any war. (Also good for middle classes in Germany)

• B) Bring Italy into the alliance with a promise to protect her against France and thus not attack Austria at any time. (Italy wanted ‘Great Power’ status)

So: The Dual Alliance (1891)

• On the face of it the alliance of France and Russia is an astonishing event.

• Revolution and Republicanism allied with Autocratic stability and despotism.

• A triumph of common interests over ideas “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”

• France must be supported to keep Germany out of the Russian east

Russia – Why?

• Huge manpower but an infant industrial power. Could she quickly go on the offensive?

• Would the autocratic regime face defeat in war that would bring down the foundations of the regime?

• But one of the pillars of the Tsarist rule was his claim to act on behalf of orthodox Christians particularly if threatened by Muslims (Ottoman)

• Also since the Crimea Russia was anti-Austrian

France

• Still smarting from defeat by Prussia in 1871. Bismarck realized he must keep France without allies.

• France since 1871 had become a great colonial power: Indo-China and North Africa.

• Eventually révanche over Alsace-Lorraine (need for a huge army) proved more powerful than colonial contests with Britain (need for a large navy)

REVE

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Britain (Splendid Isolation)

• The key to German aspirations was to keep Britain out of any European conflict.

• In 1900 fighting a colonial war (Boer) in South Africa rather than interested in Europe.

• Operated a Two Power naval policy• Natural Policy would be to support Germany

against Russia and France. (Anglo Saxon, Royal Families, Stop threats to Empire)

• BUT After Bismarck Germany a) Threatened Britain by Naval Shipbuilding b) Created small problems in far off colonial areas. c) Supported the Boers in the South African War.

• Britain moved from a policy of isolationism in Europe to a policy of “balance of power’. To allow one country to control Europe would eventually threaten the empire.

Diplomacy Moves Along

• Continent now divided into two opposing alliance systems. 1) Germany, Austria, Italy. 2) France and Russia

• On Balance of Power terms they cancelled each other out.

• But these alliances were just systems of convenience for that moment.

• British alliance with Japan in 1902 threatened Russia and also worried France as Russia’s ally.

Colonial Problems Impinge on European Diplomacy

• France and Britain realized a Détente in Europe was preferable to colonial wars.

• 1904 Colonial agreement was signed over Egypt, Morocco, Newfoundland, Gambia, Nigeria, Siam. (Thailand)

• Not an alliance No enemies or contingencies identified: A settling of potential colonial problems

• But Germany wanted leadership in Europe

Germany Sticks its Nose in.

• 1) Fez. (Morocco) Kaiser said he would support Sultan against France. (He was actually in no position to attack a vital French interest).

• 2) German pressure also made France replace their pro British foreign minister Delcassé.

• 3) Russia lost the war with Japan.• It Appeared that:• A) France had no independent

foreign policy from German interests.

• B) The Dual alliance was a ‘paper tiger’.

• BUT:

Shifting Sands: The Triple Alliance Cracks as Italy tends to its own

Interests.

• 1900: Italy recognized France’s rights in Morocco for recognition of Italian rights in Libya.

• 1902 Italy concluded a secret alliance with France that she would be neutral in any conflict involving France.

• German rumor put about the myth that they were being ‘encircled’ and must increase military power.

• Wilhelm’s strategy after Bismarck that Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian problems outside of Europe would work to Germany’s advantage was collapsing.

But Entente was not Alliance

• The Entente between Britain, France and Russia was not a military alliance.

• It was more an understanding of spheres of influence.

However the Newspapers saw it Somewhat differently

INTO THE BALKANS VORTEX

• It would appear that by 1914 a true Balance of Power had been reached in Europe and the Colonies.

• Now Austria-Hungary feared Nationalism from the Serbs of Hungary.

• To stop the formation of a large Serbian state, Austria annexed the old Ottoman provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina (1908)

• Germany gave its complete support.

Balkan Co-operation Falls Apart

• Ethnic Make-up of Bos.-Herz. Serbian Majority. (Orthodox)

• Austrian rule rankled with Russia: as it saw itself as protector of the Slavs. Particularly as Austria (Germany) threatened to invade Serbia if Russia did not agree to the annexation.

• A) Killed Austrian-Russian co-operation in the Balkan tinderbox.

• B) Serbia now thought Austria was hell bent on its destruction as a country.

Most Important

• Russia felt that Austrian-German co-operation was a direct threat. They considered the Balkans were vital to their security and their position as a great power, and to their internal politics. As a consequence they strengthened their ties with Serbia.

Dominos Start to fall.

• Russia tried to get German support against Austria re-the Balkan problem.

• Germany saw the alliance that Russia had with France as weak.

• Germany pushed the point by interfering in Morocco in 1911 in the Panther crisis to show France that Germany held the ‘whip hand’ in any European politics.

• Britain did not like French actions in Morocco but saw German diplomacy as trying to force France to submit to German will and to attempt to upset the Entente.

• Britain was worried that German power would cause problems with France and then lead to problems with Britain’s colonial possessions.

• Britain did not fear German Imperialism but feared greatly for the Balance of Power.

Conclusion

• Britain (Foreign Minister Sir Edward Grey) did not believe that France was right: but it did believe that France had to be supported against Germany. In British eyes Germany was now seen as the major European threat.

• In 1912 Germany said any naval treaty would have to ensure that Britain would be neutral in event of war. Britain saw this as an attempt to neutralize Britain so Germany could attack France.

Meanwhile Back in the Balkans

• A series of Balkan wars had severely weakened the Ottoman Empire, led to numerous small states and left Serbia doubled in size but landlocked.

• Serbia was a Russian client state.

• Russia believed Ger/Aus would seek predominance in the Balkans and the straits. It responded by consolidating the relationships with France and Britain and relying on Serbia to act as a bastion against further Austrian expansion.

It now gets Complicated?

• NOTE: The Schlieffen plan to knock France out depended on.

• A) Austria Hungary using her army to keep Russia at bay while Germany dealt with France.

• B) But now the size of Serbia meant Austria would have to use half of her army to deal with this threat.

• C) At the same time in German eyes Russia’s military and economic threat was growing ever stronger.

• D) The assassination of France Ferdinand had given Austria/Germany the chance to neutralize Serbia and thus get back to the original strategic thinking.

The Blank Cheque

• So: Kaiser gave Austria a ‘Blank Cheque’ of support to deal with Serbia: confident that Russia would not side with assassins and that France and Britain (Who had shown little interest in the Balkans) would intervene.

• Germany believed that a great diplomatic victory was in its grasp.

The Best Laid Plans?? Austria Blamed Serbia for the Assassination

as a pretext to take action.

• But Austria wanted to go the diplomatic route and extended a series of demands to Serbia.

• a) Serbs had to condemn and suppress any subversive propaganda.

• b) Serbs had to suppress press freedoms

• c) Dissolve secret societies and their publications

• d) Remove from military service anybody who agrees with these views against Austria

• e) Hold a judicial enquiry and arrest certain people.

• f) To inform Austria without delay why certain actions had taken place.

RUSSIAN REACTION• Russian position was

that if Serbia was abandoned to Austria her position in the Balkans would collapse. Russia would slip into the ranks of the second rate.

• It is questionable if Russia would have responded this way unless she had French support. France had to keep the Russian alliance to be able to face down Germany in the future.

• Austria rejected the Serbian reply to their demands and on 28 July 1914 declared war on Serbia.

A Small Local War in a Far Off Place

• Russia mobilized its army with no intention of a general war but was wary of German intentions.

• Germany considered Austria-Hungary could not be abandoned and feared Russian build up of vast numbers of troops if it did not act. German military intelligence believed that France was unable to act to support Russia. Germany declared war on Russia on 1st August.

• France had little choice but to join in: -the alternative was to show that she was now a power of no consequence. (Germany had threatened that in the event of any war they wanted control of French border forts. This would have been a humiliation to France.

• France mobilized her army• On 4th June Germany declared war and

invaded Belgium.

Britain• Made it clear to France and

Russia that it was free of commitments. Had no intention of being involved in a Balkan War.

• Britain wanted to involve being dragged into a Continental war but feared for the worse if Germany and France entered conflict.

• After Germany invaded Belgium on 4th August Britain used this as a reason to enter the war. However it was for Balance of Power and To Save France that was the real situation.

• After all it was only for a few weeks.

SO: To Sum UP

• Nobody expected a 4 year slaughter-house.

• Germany based all its strategy on the Schlieffen plan and rapid victory. Germany had to strike hard before Russia mobilized.

• Germany had to defeat France quickly to deal with Russia.

• Russians believed they had to defend Serbia and having done so must attack in the east to prevent France being overrun.

And

• The triple alliance broke down right away as Italy refused to support Germany and Austria.

• Britain had not committed when Russia and Germany made their moves. Thus it was not the alliance system that fomented war.

• Decisions made by a traditional ruling class in defense of what they saw as vital interests.

• The transformation of what was a local Balkan war was a decision made by Germany

GERMAN MOTIVES

• Military leaders advised that her position vis-a-vis Russia would get worse as time passed.

• Feared ‘encirclement’ by other European powers.

• Traditional ruling elite believed a ‘patriotic war’ would take the pressure off rising urban demands for representation and ‘socialism’.

• With the cautious Bismarck gone the ruling elite believed that rising German power could and should be used for diplomatic ends.

• Whatever France did she would be attacked• Should Britain have made it clear to Germany

she would support France if attacked?

WHEW!

Questions?