The Road to Vision Zero: Driver errors and distraction
Transcript of The Road to Vision Zero: Driver errors and distraction
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The Road to Vision Zero: Driver errors and distraction
2014 Director’s Regulatory Summit St. Louis, MO ● October 15, 2014
Adrian K. Lund, Ph.D. President, IIHS and HLDI
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Who are we?
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and
educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses —
deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the
nation’s roads.
The Highway Loss Data Institute,
founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through
scientific studies of insurance data representing the human
and economic losses resulting from the ownership and
operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing
insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
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IIHS members write 85% of private passenger market • Acceptance Insurance
• ACE Private Risk Services
• Affirmative Insurance
• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation
• Alfa Insurance
• Allstate Insurance Group
• American Family Mutual Insurance
• American National Property and Casualty Company
• Ameriprise Auto & Home
• Amica Mutual Insurance Company
• Auto Club Enterprises
• Auto Club Group
• Auto-Owners Insurance
• Aviva Insurance
• Bankers Insurance Group
• Bituminous Insurance Companies
• California Casualty Group
• California State Auto Group
• Capital Insurance Group
• Chubb & Son
• Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Commonwealth Mutual Insurance Company of America
• Concord Group Insurance Companies
• COUNTRY Financial
• CSAA Insurance Group
• CSE Insurance Group
• Direct General Corporation
• Erie Insurance Group
• Esurance
• Farm Bureau Financial Services
• Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan
• Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho
• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies
• Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa
• Farmers Mutual of Nebraska
• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• Frankenmuth Insurance
• Freestone Insurance Company
• Gainsco Insurance
• GEICO Group
• The General Insurance
• Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Goodville Mutual Casualty Company
• Grange Insurance
• Hallmark Insurance Company
• Hanover Insurance Group
• The Hartford
• Haulers Insurance Company, Inc.
• Horace Mann Insurance Companies
• ICW Group
• Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company
• Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Infinity Property & Casualty
• Kemper Preferred
• Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance
• Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
• Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Maryland Automobile Insurance Fund
• Mercury Insurance Group
• MetLife Auto & Home
• Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company
• MiddleOak
• Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• MMG Insurance
• Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company
• Nationwide
• New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
• Nodak Mutual Insurance Company
• Norfolk & Dedham Group
• North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Northern Neck Insurance Company
• Ohio Mutual Insurance Group
• Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance
• Old American Indemnity Company
• Oregon Mutual Insurance
• Pekin Insurance
• PEMCO Insurance
• Plymouth Rock Assurance
• Progressive Corporation
• QBE
• The Responsive Auto Insurance Company
• Rockingham Group
• Safe Auto Insurance
• Safeco Insurance
• Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company
• SECURA Insurance
• Sentry Insurance
• Shelter Insurance
• Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America
• South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• State Auto Insurance Companies
• State Farm
• Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• Tower Group Companies
• The Travelers Companies
• United Educators
• USAA
• Utica National Insurance Group
• Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance
• West Bend Mutual Insurance Company
• Western National
• Westfield Insurance
• XL Group plc
• Zurich North America
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Where are we? Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center
Washington, DC
Virginia
Charlottesville
Arlington
Virginia
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Vision Zero
Adopted by the Swedish parliament in 1997,
“Vision Zero is a philosophy of road safety that eventually no one
will be killed or seriously injured within the road transport system.”
-Claes Tingvall and Narelle Haworth, 1999
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Haddon matrix shows many roads to Vision Zero Recognizing opportunities to make a difference
crash phase
changes in… before during after
people
•licensing laws
•graduated licensing
•impaired driving laws
•red light cameras
•speed camera
•belt use
•helmets
•speed cameras
•alcohol
vehicles
•lane departure warning
•daytime running lights
•electronic stability control
•airbags
•vehicle structure
•bumpers
•crash notification systems
•fuel system integrity
environment
•roundabouts
•trouble spot treatment
•rumble strips
•roundabouts
•breakaway poles
•emergency medical
sservices
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0
5
10
15
20
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10
Motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate 1950-2012
motor vehicle crash deaths
unemployment rate
8%
33,561
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Vehicle improvements have been key to reductions in motor vehicle crash fatality risk
0
20
40
60
80
1950 60 70 80 90 2000 10
Motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled
1950-2012
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New car assessment programs (NCAPs) By year of inception
1978 1995 1997 2006 2011
1993 1995 1999 2010 2012
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IIHS TOP SAFETY PICK awards Requirements for 2014
Moderate overlap front
or Small overlap front
Side impact
Roof strength
Rear impact
2014 TOP SAFETY PICK; AND
basic or better rating for front crash prevention
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50th Anniversary crash test 1959 Bel Air vs. 2009 Malibu
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Still a long road to Vision Zero 33,561 deaths in motor vehicle crashes in 2012
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A major obstacle on the road to Vision Zero: Driver error
• 1979 – Indiana “Tri-Level Study” estimated “driver error” to be
“probable” cause of 9 out of 10 crashes
• Percentage of crashes where specific categories of driver error were
judged to be a probable cause:
– 23%: Improper lookout
– 17%: Excessive speed
– 15%: Inattention
– 13%: Improper evasive action
– 9%: Internal distraction
– 9%: Improper driving technique
– 9%: Inadequately defensive driving technique
– 8%: False assumption
– 6%: Improper maneuver
– 6%: Overcompensation
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Distraction-affected fatal crashes
• In 2012, there were 30,800 fatal crashes in which 33,561 people
were killed
• At least one driver was coded as distracted in 3,050 fatal crashes
(10% of all fatal crashes) in which 3,328 people were killed
(10% of all fatalities)
• 3,119 drivers involved in a fatal crash were coded as distracted
• The following slide shows the percentage of drivers involved in a
fatal crash who were coded as distracted by specific distractions
Fatality Analysis Reporting System, 2012
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Percentage of drivers
involved in a fatal
crash who were
coded as distracted
Distraction/inattention/careless/lost in thought (Inattention, details unknown; Distraction, details unknown; Distraction/inattention;
Careless/inattention; Distraction/careless; Inattentive or lost in thought)
63 (4)*
Cellular phone related (While talking or listening to cellular phone; While manipulating cellular phone;
Other cellular phone related)
13 (1)*
Other (unlisted) distraction 8 (1)*
Outside person, object, or event 6
Other occupant 5
Using device/controls integral to the vehicle (While adjusting audio and/or climate controls; While using other device/controls
integral to vehicle)
2
Using or reaching for device/object brought in vehicle 2
Eating or drinking 1
Smoking <1
Moving object in vehicle <1
Distraction categories
*( ) = percent of all drivers in fatal crashes
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Driver distractions
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Changing lanes while texting
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Using cellphone and eating
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Speeding and texting
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States that ban all drivers from talking on hand-held phones October 2014
MD
DE
DC
MA
OR
RI NJ
NH
ME
PA
WV
NC
SC
GA
FL
OH
MI
IN IL
WI
IA
MO
LA
NM
CO
SD
ID
CA
WA
TN
VT
MS
MT ND
NV
AZ
UT
WY
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
MN
AL
KY VA
NY
CT
AK
HI
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States that ban all drivers from texting
October 2014
partial
all drivers
TN
MD
DE
DC
MA
OR
RI NJ
NH
ME
PA
WV
NC
SC
GA
FL
OH
MI
IN IL
WI
IA
MO
LA
NM
CO
SD
ID
CA
WA VT
MS
MT ND
NV
AZ
UT
WY
NE
KS
OK
TX
AR
MN
AL
KY VA
NY
CT
AK
HI
no ban
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MOEyesontheRoad
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-32 -30 -28 -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Connecticut
2 control states
Crashes and hand-held cellphone ban in Connecticut Collision claim frequencies by month for vehicles up to 3 years old,
Connecticut vs. New York and Massachusetts
ban enacted October 2005
months before and after ban
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Estimated effect of hand-held cellphone bans in 4 states
Collision claim frequencies for vehicles up to 3 years old
estimated effect
vs. control states p-value
California -1% 0.2635
Connecticut +4% 0.0317
Washington DC
(vs. MD and VA) -5% 0.1753
New York +3% 0.0052
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Estimated effect of texting bans in 4 states Collision claim frequencies for vehicles up to 9 years old
estimated effect
vs. control states p-value
California +8% 0.0001
Louisiana +7% 0.0001
Minnesota +9% 0.0001
Washington +1% 0.4425
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Despite increased phone use, crash rates are down
0
100
200
300
1985 90 95 2000 05 10
Cellphone subscribers in millions, 1985-2012
0
1
2
3
4
1985 88 90 95 2000 05 10
All police-reported crashes per million miles traveled, 1988-2012
NA NA NA
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Crashes still occur for people distracted by phones
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Safety-critical event risk increases with manipulation of hand-held devices Fitch et al., 2013
risk rate ratio odds ratio
All cellphone use 1.3 1.1
All visual-manual cellphone use (including visual-manual interactions with hands-free devices)
2.9 1.7
Text-related visual-manual or text
messaging/browsing 2.1 1.7
Talking/listening on cell phone 0.8 0.8
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Can new crash avoidance technology help?
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The Google vision Autonomous vehicles delivering occupants to pre-set destinations
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Vehicles without and with ESC
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Effects on crash risk Percent change in crash rates for vehicles with standard ESC vs.
optional or no ESC, updated May 2010
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20all crashes fatal injury
all crashes
multiple-vehicle
single-vehicle
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Front crash prevention systems are reducing front to rear crashes
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Autobrake performance tests 25 mi/h
Subaru Outback
with EyeSight
Mercedes-Benz
E350 with
Distronic Plus
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Benefits of Autobrake: Mercedes-Benz C-Class into Chevrolet Malibu at 25 and 12 mi/h
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Higher speed front crash prevention systems Percent change in vehicle damage claims per insured vehicle year
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Honda Accord(includes LDW)
Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Volvo(includes LDW)
PDL collision
warning only warning with autobrake
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Higher speed front crash prevention systems Changes in injury claim frequency per insured vehicle year
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
Honda Accord(includes LDW)
Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Volvo (includesLDW)
warning only warning with autobrake
Bodily injury liability
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Honda Accord(includes
LDW)
Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Volvo(includes
LDW)
MedPay
PIP
MedPay and PIP
(1st party injuries)
warning only warning with autobrake
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Driver assistance features Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS
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The impact of advanced driver assist systems on insurance (and safety) will occur gradually as technology penetrates the fleet
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Registered vehicles with forward collision warning, actual and predicted By calendar year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
predicted
actual
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2020
2030
2040
2050
front crashprevention
lane departurewarning
adaptiveheadlights
blind spotwarning
rearcamera
rear parkingsensors
without mandate
hypothetical 2015 mandate
Calendar year features reach 95% of registered vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate
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In the meantime, there are other actions we can take to achieve Vision Zero that can mitigate driver distraction and error
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August 2011
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Low-hanging fruit
• Roundabouts
• Primary safety belt use laws
• Mandatory helmet use for all motorcyclists
• Strengthen graduated driver licensing laws
• Lower speed limits
• Automated enforcement of red light running and speeding
• Sobriety checkpoints
These are proven countermeasures that can reduce deaths and
injuries on our highways as soon as implemented.
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If 10 percent of signalized intersections in the United States were converted to roundabouts
• Approximately 46,000 crashes prevented in 2012 including:
– 184 fatal crashes
– 31,000 injury crashes
• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours
• Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons
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Fatalities in red light running crashes 2011
number
Driver in red light running vehicle 247
Passenger in red light running vehicle 83
Occupants non-red light running vehicle 341
Pedestrian, bicyclist and personal conveyance 43
TOTAL 714
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Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during 2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs. expected rates without cameras
-30
-20
-10
0
red light runningfatal crashes
fatal crashesat intersectionswith signal lights
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Driver fails to stop for red traffic light
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We need to be resourceful in addressing the many forms of distraction that lead to crashes
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Mind wandering and multi-tasking A final thought
“We developed a smartphone technology to sample people’s
ongoing thoughts, feelings, and actions and found (i) that
people are thinking about what is not happening almost as
often as they are thinking about what is and (ii) found that
doing so typically makes them unhappy.”
- A Wandering Mind is an Unhappy Mind
Killingsworth, M.A. and Gilbert, D.T. 2010
Science, 330, 932
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Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries, and property damage on the highway