The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the...

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Towards an

Transcript of The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the...

Page 1: The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2 C and to pursue efforts

Towards an

Page 2: The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2 C and to pursue efforts

CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Global and EU action to achieve the Paris Agreement

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• Europe is already experiencing changes in weather and climate extremes

• Climate change will compound with other disruptive trends: digitalization; the emerging global middle class; demographic imbalances

• Europe needs to act leading the world in addressing the challenges

Page 3: The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2 C and to pursue efforts

CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Our Vision for a Clean Planet by 2050

• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C

• The IPCC report confirms that limiting climate change to 1.5°C is necessary to avoid these worst impacts. Climate change undermines security and prosperity in the broadest sense.

• For Europe, limiting temperature increase well below 2°C means 80% emissions reduction by 2050 compared to 1990.

• For Europe to lead the world in climate action, it means achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

• The Long Term Strategy shows that transforming our economy is possible and beneficial. It also highlights the challenges of the transformation, but the status quo is not an option.

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Page 4: The road to Paris - Microsoft...• The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2 C and to pursue efforts

CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Scenarios for Europe in 2050

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• Scenarios are used for projection about demand and supply of energy (including land use) compliant with Paris targets

• 8 scenarios analyse different technology pathways (high electrification, high energy efficiency, circular economy, etc.)

• Different levels of ambition: -80% emissions and net-zero by 2050 plus a Baseline (business as usual)

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

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Europe Today• The EU is about to

achieve its 2020 targets

• Targets for 2030 are agreed in EU law

• Business as usual means -45% GHG emissions in 2030 (vs. 1990)

• Without increasing ambition: -60% emissions in 2050

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Analysed scenarios in line with Paris AgreementLong Term Strategy Options

Electrification(ELEC)

Hydrogen(H2)

Power-to-X(P2X)

Energy Efficiency

(EE)

Circular Economy

(CIRC)Combination

(COMBO)

1.5°C Technical(1.5TECH)

1.5°C Sustainable Lifestyles

(1.5LIFE)

Main Drivers Electrification in all sectors

Hydrogen in industry,

transport and buildings

E-fuels in industry,

transport andbuildings

Pursuing deep energy efficiency

in all sectors

Increasedresource and

material efficiency

Cost-efficient combination of

options from 2°C scenarios

Based on COMBO with

more BECCS, CCS

Based on COMBO and

CIRC withlifestyle changes

GHG targetin 2050

-80% GHG (excluding sinks)[“well below 2°C” ambition]

-90% GHG (incl. sinks)

-100% GHG (incl. sinks)[“1.5°C” ambition]

Major Common Assumptions

Power sector Power is nearly decarbonised by 2050. Strong penetration of RES facilitated by system optimization (demand-side response, storage, interconnections, role of prosumers). Nuclear still plays a role in the power sector and CCS deployment faces limitations.

Industry Electrification of processes

Use of H2 in targeted

applications

Use of e-gas in targeted

applications

Reducing energy demand via

Energy Efficiency

Higher recycling rates, material substitution,

circular measuresCombination of

most Cost-efficient options from “well below

2°C” scenarios with targeted application

(excluding CIRC)

COMBO but stronger

CIRC+COMBO but stronger

BuildingsIncreased

deployment of heat pumps

Deployment of H2 for heating

Deployment of e-gas for heating

Increasedrenovation rates

and depth

Sustainable buildings

CIRC+COMBO but stronger

Transport sector

Faster electrification for

all transport modes

H2 deployment for HDVs and

some for LDVs

E-fuels deployment for

all modes

• Increased modal shift

• Electrification as in ELEC

Mobility as a service

• CIRC+COMBO but stronger

• Alternatives to air travel

Other Drivers H2 in gas distribution grid

E-gas in gas distribution grid

Limited enhancementnatural sink

• Dietary changes• Enhancement

natural sink

• Higher energy efficiency post 2030• Deployment of sustainable, advanced biofuels• Moderate circular economy measures• Digitilisation

• Market coordination for infrastructure deployment• BECCS present only post-2050 in 2°C scenarios• Significant learning by doing for low carbon technologies• Significant improvements in the efficiency of the transport system.

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-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtC

O2e

q

Non-CO2 other Non-CO2 Agriculture Residential

Transport Tertiary Industry

Power Carbon Removal Technologies LULUCF

Net emissions

All sectors have to contributeGHG emissions trajectory in a 1.5°C scenario

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

A renewable power supply in 2050

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Power generation capacity in 2050

9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30002

00

0

20

15

20

30

Bas

elin

e

EE

CIR

C

ELE

C

H2

P2

X

CO

MB

O

1.5

TE

CH

1.5

LIF

E

2050

GW

BECCSFossil fuel (CCS)Fossil fuelsNuclearOther renewablesSolarWind offshoreWind onshore

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Renovation rate in buildings

10

1,0%1,2%1,4%1,6%1,8%2,0%

2016

-'30

Base

line EE

CIRC

ELEC H2 P2

X

COM

BO

1.5T

ECH

1.5L

IFE

2031- '50

Reno

vatio

n ra

te

Residential

Services

• Energy use to halve between 2005 and 2050

• New buildings only 10-25% 2050 stock

• Energy performance largely determined by renovation rate

• Renovation rate (1-1,5% today) will more than double

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

A clean, safe and connected mobilityShares in total cars stock by drivetrain technology in 2050

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Land use and agriculture

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• Land provides goods and services

• Crops, materials (timber, pulp&paper, bio-plastics) and energy (solid and liquid biofuels) compete for scarce resources

• The LULUCF sector in the EU today is a net carbon sink

436Mha

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

Investing in the future of Europeadditional investments in % of GDP

13

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

% G

DP

ELEC H2 P2X EE

CIRC COMBO 1.5 TECH 1.5 LIFE

• Additional investment: 150-290 billion EUR/year (2030-2050)

• Higher investments for higher ambition

• Behaviors matters!

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

The economic impact of the energy transitionEstimated changes in GDP

14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1990

= 10

0

GDP GEM-E3 1.5°C global action GDP E3ME 1.5°C global action

Net GHG, 1.5°C TECH Baseline GDP

• GHG emissions and GDP growth decouples in the last 40 years

• Decarbonisationimpacts on GDP estimated with macroenomicmodels

• Very small impact impact on GDP (small positive impact on employment)

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

European Enabling Framework

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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS

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Thank you


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