The road to 2050: The need for flexibility in a high renewables world · 2019-10-23 · To reach...

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The road to 2050: The need for

flexibility in a high renewables world

Ana Barillas

Aurora Energy Research

Climate change is becoming a legislative priority in Europe

Rejecting net-zero in law

Policy position

In law

Supporting net-zero target

To reach net zero by 2050, the GB power market will have to transform completely: power generation up 60%; CO2 emissions down 100%

Generation mix in GB,

TWh

Carbon intensity,

gCO2/kWh

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2020

520

349

2030 2040 2050

428

332

SolarDispatchable Net Import Hydro and Other Renewables Wind Nuclear

133 4866 5

A high-renewables system increases the need for flexibility and reliability, and creates opportunities for storage

Unpredictable

Variable

Characteristics of

renewables

Ramping

Reliability

Supply-demand

matching

Undispatchable

Flexibility

Near-term system

requirements

2050 system

requirements

CO2

A

B

C

Demand-supply matching: as we approach 2050, storage becomes necessary for the proper utilisation of renewables

70

40

80

0

10

50

30

20

60

90

100

110

120

17-S

ep

11-S

ep

16-S

ep

10-S

ep

12-S

ep

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

10

70

40

0

120

50

30

20

60

80

90

100

110

16-S

ep

12-S

ep

10-S

ep

14-S

ep

11-S

ep

13-S

ep

15-S

ep

17-S

ep

Illustrative power demand in two typical

weeks,

GW

Residual demand Solar Wind Gas with CCS Nuclear Total Demand

Sustained residual

demand requires flexible

generation

Residual demand can be

met by supply-demand

matching through storage

A

2030 2050

Demand-supply matching: the shape of residual demand determines the size and type of storage opportunities

20

50

Illustrative weekly residual demand profile,GW

0

-40

-35

10

-25

-30

-20

-15

-10

-5

20

5

15

25

30

Residual Demand

A

Positive Residual Demand

(Renewables + Nuclear <

Demand)

Negative Residual Demand

(Renewables + Nuclear > Demand)

-40

-25

-35

25

-30

-15

-20

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

30

Residual Demand Volume for Storage

20

50

Daily storage opportunity

Storage absorbs excess

renewables (negative

residual demand)

Storage dispatches

when residual

demand is positive

Demand-supply matching: daily storage can be used to move power from when it is generated to when it is needed

A


-30

-25

-40

-35

-20

30

20

-15

-10

15

-5

0

5

10

25

Residual Demand Volume for Storage Curtailment

20

50

Demand-supply matching: excess renewable generation needs to be stored for longer periods of time

A

Excess renewable

generation can’t

be used to meet

daily fluctuations

in residual

demand


107

146

246

216

0

50

100

150

200

250

20302020 2040 2050

Required Daily Storage Volume (GWh)

Maximum daily storage volumeGWh

Maximum daily storage

capacityGW

Demand-supply matching: the need for daily storage increases over time, but it is capped by the amount of positive residual demand

A

11

GW

19

GW

24

GW

30

GW

2030 2050

189

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

23

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

23

Curtailment

(?)

61

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2040

Demand-supply matching: absorbing all excess renewable generation by 2050 would require large volumes of long-duration storage

A

Use case for inter-seasonal storage,TWh

2030 2050

189

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

4

Curtailment

(?)

2338

Curtailment

(?)

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

38

23

61

24

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2040


A


2030 2050

189 1854

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2338

38

0

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

23

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

61

3724

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2040


A


2030 2050

189 1854

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2338

38

0

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

23

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

61

3724

Excess Daily

Renewable

Generation

Unmet

annual

residual

demand

Curtailment

(?)

2040

Demand-supply matching: by 2050 the opportunity lies in converting excess renewables to non-electrical energy for use in other sectors

A

With the availability of

inter-seasonal storage,

excess renewable

generation could be

fully used to meet

residual demand


Excess renewable

generation exceeds

unmet residual

demand

Excess

renewable

generation

could be

utilised to

produce

hydrogen

for use in

industry,

transport

and heat


Unpredictable

Variable

Characteristics of

renewables

Ramping

Reliability

Supply-demand

matching

Undispatchable

Flexibility

Near-term system

requirements

2050 system

requirements

CO2

A

B

C

Ramping: quick fluctuations in demand and supply require generation that can ramp quickly to meet residual demand

B

Demand and supply on one day in Winter 2040GW/HH

Half hour

52

54

60

56

58

62

0

40

42

44

46

48

50

5:00 AM 7:30 AM 10:00 AM8:00 AM

Gas CCSOffshore SolarOnshore Nuclear Demand

5.4 GW increase in

demand in a single 30-

minute period

2.3 GW decrease in generation

in a single 30-minute period

7.7 GW of 30-minute

ramping required1

2

3

High ramping requirementsGW/half hour

5.4

6.3

7.7

8.5

1.0 1.1 1.31.7

20302020 2040 2050

Average high ramping requirementMaximum high ramping requirement

Ramping: the need for fast-ramping generation increases as supply volatility increases

B

By 2050, the system will need

around 8.5 GWs that can

respond in under 30 minutes


Unpredictable

Variable

Characteristics of

renewables

Ramping

Reliability

Supply-demand

matching

Undispatchable

Flexibility

Near-term system

requirements

2050 system

requirements

CO2

A

B

C

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

Reliability: wind load factors can vary significantly from expected values

C

Load factor probability distribution, 2050%

2 weeks per

year have a

load factor

below 20%

Average

load factor

is close to

40%

Weekly Load Factor

Probability

Incremental TWh required to meet one week of low wind

TWh

5.6

7.7

11.4

1.9

3.8

5.3

7.8

20302020 2040 2050

2.8

Low wind weekAverage wind week

0.9

1.8

2.4

3.6

Generation required from dispatchable

generation

Requirement met in part by

CCGTs and peaking capacityEquivalent to

around 21 GW

of dispatchable,

zero emissions

generation

Reliability: Maintaining system reliability in a high-renewables world requires large amounts of dispatchable, long-duration generation

C

The system’s requirement for quick-response, long-duration generation increases as renewable penetration increases

2020 2050

Max carbon intensity: 133g CO2/kWh Max carbon intensity: 0g CO2/kWh

Duration

Resp

on

se T

ime

Capacity requirement

GW

Notes: Inter-seasonal storage/sector coupling based on full amount of curtailed renewables following use of daily storage. GWh estimate converted to GW based on 100% LF for three

months of the year


GW

Long

Fast

Short

Slo

w

1130

21 86

9

Ramping

Daily storage

Weekly back-up

5

Ramping

Daily storage

Weekly back-up

Inter-seasonal/

Sector coupling

5

Duration

Resp

on

se T

ime

Long

Fast

Short

Slo

w

The complexity of meeting such requirements increases with zero emission targets and excess renewable generation

2020 2050

Max carbon intensity: 133g CO2/kWh Max carbon intensity: 0g CO2/kWh


GW

Notes: (1) Inter-seasonal storage/sector coupling based on full amount of curtailed renewables following use of daily storage. GWh estimate converted to GW based on 100% LF for three

months of the year


GW

DSR

Li-ion batteries

CCGTs

OCGTs

Recips

Pumped hydro

Gravitational storage

HydrogenGas CCS

DSR

Pumped hydro

Li-ion batteries

Vanadium flow batteries

Compressed air storage

Liquid air energy storageMolten salt

?

Duration

Resp

on

se T

ime

Long

Fast

Short

Slo

w

Duration

Resp

on

se T

ime

Long

Fast

Short

Slo

w

A robust policy framework structured around system requirements would help drive the needed investment in flexibility

Net zero challenges Policy principles

Scale of investment

Need for R&D

Inadequate policy framework

Price the externalities

Define the system needs

Let the market decide

The road to 2050: The need for flexibility in a high renewables world · 2019-10-23 · To reach...

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