The road from Kyoto to Copenhagen: how can we ensure sustainable growth?

Geraldo Martha, Jr.Geraldo Martha, Jr.

Embrapa Estudos EstratégicosEmbrapa Estudos Estratégicos

e Capacitaçãoe Capacitação

IFPRI Meeting, Bold actions for stimulating inclusive growth, June 2 2010

Source: MCT (2009).

Brazilian GHG Emissions

Brazilian Mitigation Actions

Source: MCT (2009).

Composition of the Brazilian GHG Emissions

Source: MCT (2009).

R&D at Embrapa: some examples in sustainable technologies / agricultural systems

(focus on mitigation actions)

• technical and economic potential do mitigate technical and economic potential do mitigate emissions;emissions;• co-benefits that improve agricultural productivity and co-benefits that improve agricultural productivity and resilience (food security, adaptation);resilience (food security, adaptation);

Target 1: 15 M ha of degraded areas (- 83-104 M mt CO2-e)(- 83-104 M mt CO2-e)

Target 2: 4 M ha of ICLS+forests (- 18-22 M mt CO2-e)(- 18-22 M mt CO2-e)

Avoided Deforestation

Martha & Vilela (2009).

1 ha of degraded pasture (0.4 hd./ha)

Environmental Commitement (key-part of all actions)

Rotação lavoura-pasto

Anos

75 76 78 82 86 87 88 89 90 91 92

Mat

éri

a o

rgân

ica

(%)

0

2

3

4

5Rotação contínua de soja/milhoPasto depois de lavouraLavoura depois de pasto

Sousa et al., 1997

Corn/soybean rotationPasture following cropCrop following pasture

So

il o

rgan

ic m

atte

r co

nte

nt

(%)

Carbon mitigation x ICLS

Continuous crop Crop/livestock systems

Banco de sementes de plantas invasorasWeeds x ICLS

P2O5

kg.ha-1.yr-1 Corn-soybean1 Crop-pasture2 Increase

100 44 85 93%

200 40 82 105%

400 35 70 100%

800 40 62 55%

Average 40 75 88%

1 - 10 yrs. Soybean, 1 yr. corn, 4 cycles corn-soybean, 2 yrs. corn, 1 yr. soybean. 2 - 2 yrs. Soybean, 9 yrs. Brachiaria , 2 yrs. Soybean, 2 cycles corn-soybean, 5 yrs. Brachiaria .

P apparent recovery (% of the P applied)

Sousa et al., 2007

Nutrient-Use Efficiency x ICLS

Barioni, Sainz & Martha, Jr. (unpublished)

Pastoral Systems x GHG Emissions

Martha Jr.; Barioni; Sainz, 2009 (unpublished)

Return to investment and Financial Needs, 2009-2030

Target 3: 5.5 M ha of BNF (- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)(- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)

With Bradyrhizobium

Without Bradyrhizobium

Anual economy:~ US$ 5 billion

Target 4: 8 M ha of No-Till Planting (- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)(- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)

R&D at Embrapa: some examples in sustainable technologies / agricultural systems

(focus on adaptation actions)

• assign high priority to mitigation actions that have assign high priority to mitigation actions that have strong adaptation benefits;strong adaptation benefits;

Drought tolerant wheat

Drought susceptible wheat

New cultivars

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

New cultivars

MacaúbaMacaúba (Acrocomia aculeata)(Acrocomia aculeata) Pinhão-manso (Jatropha curcas)Pinhão-manso (Jatropha curcas) Capim-elefante (Pennisetum purpureum)Capim-elefante (Pennisetum purpureum)

Improved Soil Conservation Techniques

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

61%

29%

8%

1%

1%60

0

15

30

45

75

Withgypsum

withoutgypsum

Dep

th (

cm)

D

30%

22%

18%

18%

12%

Sousa et al. 1995

Relative distribution of corn roots in a clay oxisol profile after phopho-gypsum application.

Soil quality

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

Soil quality

Sousa et al. (2006).

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

Agro-Ecological Zonning System

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

Improved Water-Use Efficiency

SUPERFICIALSUPERFICIAL CENTER PIVOTSCENTER PIVOTS

MICRO-SPRINKLERMICRO-SPRINKLERDRIPDRIP

Development and Management of Efficient Development and Management of Efficient Irrigation SystemsIrrigation Systems

Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics

Training & Education

C e r r a d o s

Technology transfer for ICLS

focus

Best management practices

Final Comments

• There are clear opportunities for accommodating food and biofuel expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado in a sustainable way;

• Public-private partnership played a very important role in the development of the Brazilian Cerrado agriculture and its importance is strengthened in face of future food, energy and environmental challenges;

• Intensifying pastoral systems in a sustainable way, and promoting initiatives on capacity strengthening, will be of central importance for a low-carbon agriculture;

• A lag between adoption and the realization of productivity benefits may create an adoption threshold, especially when a farmer is uncertain about future productive benefits or when he highly discounts future benefits. Farmers must have access to adequate financing to avoid exacerbating this threshold effect;

• Successful scaling-up depends upon multi-stakeholder approaches. Knowledge exchange, capacity development, technology transfer and well-functioning input and market chains are key-components to foster the adoption of sustainable technologies.

Final Comments

Thank you !Thank you !geraldo.martha@embrapa.brgeraldo.martha@embrapa.br

+55 61 3448-1734+55 61 3448-1734