The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live...

28
SPECIAL EDITION The Road Back STOCK GUIDE // 2020 Q2

Transcript of The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live...

Page 1: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

S P E C I A L E D I T I O N

The Road BackSTOCK GUIDE // 2020 Q2

Page 2: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

© 2020 Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. Investor’s Business Daily, IBD and CAN SLIM and corresponding logos are registered trademarks owned by Investor’s Business Daily, Inc.

Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!

A WEEKLY PODCAST

For more info, go to: investors.com/ibdpodcast

Presented by:

Page 3: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 3

A Letter from Scott O’NeilI don’t need to tell you that these are rare times.

The coronavirus has upended the way we live, work and invest. Hopefully, your investments have been protected in part by the timely intelligence that MarketSmith has provided. And I’m optimistic that we’ve entered a time in which the market will continue to improve, along with the world at large.

In this issue of MarketSmith’s quarterly Stock Guide, we’ve gone a little off script. We’ve gathered insights and advice from some of IBD’s brightest lights about how the coronavirus pandemic has affected (and will continue to affect) the world of investing. This includes portfolio managers and analysts that I have known and worked with for decades.

I learned how to invest from my father. He always said that you have to apply your rules consistently and the market will provide what it will provide. You methodically wade in and as the market tells you that you are on the right track, you invest more. If your decisions are not working, then you gradually pull capital back. One of his regular

comments was that the market is designed to always fool you, that’s why you must operate with a set of rules.

In this issue, you’ll find some insights on how you might navigate the stock market in the coming months. Until proven otherwise, our Portfolio Team remains optimistic for this year. I find it fascinating that our portfolio is outperforming the market at a time when the news is so drastically negative. It has always been our belief that the Stock Market is your best indicator for how our great country is doing at any point in time.

Believe in yourself in these times. Be safe and be well.

W. Scott O'Neil

Page 4: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

4 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

Connect With Us

Follow us for exclusive offers, giveaways and stock investing tips.

CONNECT WITH US

Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. ________________________________________________________________

Get real-time updates on the stock market throughout the day on Twitter. Tweet us @MarketSmith with your thoughts on the market. ________________________________________________________________

IBD’s StockTwits allows you to connect with other stock traders to get tips on growing your portfolio. ________________________________________________________________

Reach out and network with the IBD® and MarketSmith® teams on LinkedIn to get in-depth investing knowledge. ________________________________________________________________

Check out Friday’s video market update for our take on the market action in the week that was. Plus, you’ll find timely tips for your stock research routine. ________________________________________________________________

Our Instagram gives you a behind-the-scenes look at how the IBD® and MarketSmith® teams work to help you succeed in the market.

Page 5: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 5

Table of ContentsThe Lessons of Black Swan Events ...........................6 By Irusha Peiris

Spotting the Market Bottom .........................................9 By Charles Harris

3 Warning Signs to Get Defensive ..............................13 By Scott St. Clair

Considering Short Selling? Read This First .............16 By David Saito-Chung

How to Spot the Next Market Leaders ......................18 By Mark Minervini

Scared out of the Market? Here’s How to Get Back in ..........................................................................20 By Mike Webster

How to Find the Best Stocks Right Now ...................22 By Arnie Gutierrez

Market Charts ....................................................................24 Nasdaq Composite, S & P 500

CONNECT WITH US

The Road Back

Page 6: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

6 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

The Lessons of Black Swan Events

By Irusha Peiris, MarketSmith Product Manager and host of the Investing with IBD Podcast

I have been trading for 20 years now and the amazing thing is that I have already experienced 3 "once-in-a-lifetime" black swan events. They were the dot-com crash of 2000, the Great Recession of 2008 and now the coronavirus crash of 2020. Each event was a tremendous learning lesson for me. It’s critical to learn from your mistakes because you will be better prepared for your next “once-in-a-lifetime” event.

In 2000, I rode that market all the way down to the lows of 2002 for some of my positions, and of course sold those positions right at the bottom. The point here was I used this pain and promised myself I would be better prepared for the next black swan event by following my rules so I wouldn’t freeze like a deer in headlights when I needed to act. Ever

since then, I have used those rules and have been able to avoid most of the pain of every correction since 2002. The only thing I changed was that I listened to the market and went to the sidelines when the markets pushed me out.

Let's review this latest black swan event.

First, no one knew it was going to get this bad. No one ever does. But once you learn to gauge the health of the market by keeping track of distribution days and following your sell rules, you will find yourself mainly in cash and on the side-lines way before the market falls apart.

The Lessons of Black Swan Events

“I have been trading for 20 years now and the amazing thing is that I have already experienced 3 'once-in-a-lifetime' black swan events."

Page 7: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 7

The Lessons of Black Swan Events

In January and through the middle of February, stocks were working really well. Almost too well. If you start to think you are a good stock picker be-cause you are making so much money, you need to use that emotion to take some profits off the table.

Experienced investors will be proactive when times are good and lock in gains for some of their stocks. Sell some stocks when you can, not when you have to. This is what I did in January and early February; specifically, I sold some of my “Tier 2” stocks just to lock in some gains.

Selling in this manner is always the hardest thing for me to do because I think, “What if I sell at a 20% profit and the stock goes up 100%?” This is human nature. There is a point when you have to lock in some gains and ring the cash register. I still held on to my “Tier 1” stocks—the stocks I thought were the true leaders of the market.

On February 24, the major indexes gapped down as the markets started to realize the coronavirus could have a huge impact on the world economy.

This was the first major warning sign. Every investor following our system has to do something on this day. Sell something. React.

On this day, I was forced to move more to cash and even sell some of my favorite stocks. I still held some stocks though, because the indexes remained above their 50-day moving average lines.

On February 25, when the markets broke lower, playtime was over and I had to move mainly to cash. One of my stocks was still hanging in there, so I maintained a small position. Over the next few days, I was forced to sell that last stock because I was following my rules. No sentimental attachment, just sell and walk away.

So how do you handle a black swan event? Listen to the market and follow your sell rules. The beauty of our system is that it is simple enough and it adapts to any kind of environment. With a more severe bear market, you will be forced to sell quicker because the market and your stocks break key support areas in a shorter amount of time.

Page 8: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

8 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

Always use three areas for feedback: the market, the leading stocks and your portfolio. These are your gauges for market health. We review these gagues every week on our Take on the Market webinars, which you can find on your MarketSmith member homepage.

If you saw your portfolio consistently increase for 6 weeks and now it’s giving back 4% every day, you are getting critical feedback and have to act. This is a character change in the market, stocks, and your portfolio! Do not be a deer in headlights like me in 2000. Sell and live to invest another day. You can always buy the stocks back when your buy rules start working again.

Now once you are on the sidelines and the news is really bad, remember the bear market will end and give you a great opportunity. Be ready at all times and use rules to get back into stocks when the time is right. Respect the Fol-low-Through Day. Buy a stock breaking out of a base and see what happens. Let the market slowly pull you back in.

Just like you don't want to freeze when the market is falling apart, you don't want to let fear prevent you from buying when stocks are breaking out in a potential new uptrend. Buy slowly and let your purchases prove themselves before buying more.

During a bear market, we build our watchlists and pay close attention to stocks with great relative strength. My fa-vorite way to look for this is to see which stocks are on the “RS Line Blue Dot” list in MarketSmith (which indicates a 52-week high of the relative strength line).

Like any black swan event, any crisis, there will be tremendous opportunity in the chaos. Follow the rules and slowly move back in when the time is right. Use the three gauges: the market, the leading stocks, and your portfolio. n

“Respect the Follow-Through Day. Buy a stock breaking out of a base and see what happens. Let the market slowly pull you back in."

The Lessons of Black Swan Events

Page 9: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 9

Spotting the Market Bottom

By Charles Harris, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager, O'Neil Capital Management

The first quarter of 2020 was indeed painful, as the stock market suffered one of the swiftest corrections in history. In just six weeks, the NASDAQ plummeted 32.6% from an all-time high, with the S&P 500 falling 35.4%.

I must confess that as the broad market indices were abruptly and decisively rolling over and breaking below their respective 10-week moving averages at the end of February, I never expected such a violent correction would bring us to the levels we reached in the third week of March. As the news was developing, I, like many, totally underestimated the profound impact the coronavirus pan-demic would have on the stock market and the underlying economy.

This points to a fundamental truth and one of the core tenets of the O’Neil approach to the stock market: Once the general market, or an individual stock, is in a downtrend, there is no telling how low it will go or how long it will take to recover. Rather than try to predict how long and deep a correction might last, it is best to wait on the sidelines until there

are signals of a new bull market, or at least a tradable rally.

That signal is the Follow-Through Day, which has occurred toward the beginning of every major bull market that our shop has studied over the past 120 years.

But why do I use the Follow-Through Day (FTD) as the earliest indication that the general market is in a confirmed uptrend and may be beginning a new bull phase? For one, it’s a purely technical indicator and doesn’t rely on the opinions and/or judgements of market participants and pundits, who may be swayed by the latest news headlines and their emo-tions. History shows the market typically bottoms and begins a new leg up long before the economy begins to recover. Therefore, it is generally best to rely on what the market itself is telling you instead of the news.

Spotting the Market Bottom

Page 10: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

10 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

Spotting the Market Bottom

The S&P 500 staged an 8th day FTD on April 2nd, and the NASDAQ staged an 11th day FTD on April 6th. This was my indication that it was safe to begin test-ing the market. Just as there is no way of knowing how long or deep a bear market might last, there is no way of knowing at this early stage whether this rally turns into a sustainable, tradable advance.

That’s why it’s best to wade in slowly and let your portfolio prove that the rally is real. If this rally does turn into a major bull market, there will be plenty of time to get in.

There are several signs that give me con-fidence that we have seen the worst of

the damage and that the market should continue to gradually improve. I pay a lot of attention to the psychological mar-ket indicators, all of which hit extreme levels as the market was hitting new lows during the third week of March. These extreme levels across the various indicators often coincide with major market bottoms.

• The CBOE Volatility Index (0VIX in MarketSmith) hit its second highest intraday level ever on March 16th and posted its highest closing price on record.

• The Bull-Bear Investment Advisor survey published by Investors Intelligence shows bearish advisors outnumbering bullish advisors

s Pictured: Psychological market indicators that lead Charles to believe the worst of

the crash is behind us, at least for now.

Page 11: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 11

Spotting the Market Bottom

for two straight weeks, which is a rare occurrence and a strong contraindicator.

• The Put-to-Call Ratio hit extreme levels above 1.4 during the worst of the sell-off.

• The ratio of stocks hitting new lows versus new highs reached levels that only occur during the most extreme oversold conditions.

Markets have trouble dealing with un-certainty, but once the news is out, they adjust and can begin to repair. On an anecdotal basis, we’ve seen some of the Asian countries, which were the first to encounter the coronavirus, come out the

other side and begin to return to some sense of normalcy, so the markets are realizing that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Investors often think in a linear way and draw conclusions based on current con-ditions, which leads to panic behavior. But conditions never persist in a linear way. Even if the virus persists longer than expected, new ways of dealing with it will most likely occur in the coming months and quarters.

New and better treatments will be developed, and hospitals and individuals will be far better equipped in terms of

s Pictured: The CBOE Volatility Index (0VIX in MarketSmith), which broadly tracks

volatility in the market. Note the high on March 16th—that was the highest close

on record.

Page 12: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

12 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

personal protective equipment and medical devices. History shows that the way the market reacts to the same bad news will dissipate over time.

That said, even if the bear market lows have been reached, the trajectory of the recovery is unknowable. It would be normal for the market to react to tech-nical resistance levels at the declining 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which could lead to a retest of the March lows and perhaps an undercut. Only time will tell.

In the meantime, as the market contin-ues to recover after the FTD, I am adding

exposure to growth stocks with strong fundamentals and technicals that are part of secular themes, as opposed to defensive names and “safety stocks” that typically rally when investors are scared and move to take off risk.

Currently, I am seeing strength in growth industries such as software/cloud (MSFT, VEEV, DOCU), healthcare-related (VRTX, REGN, DXCM, MASI), semicon-ductor (NVDA, AMD, IPHI), and internet retail (AMZN, JD). All of these stocks held up relatively well during the sell-off and have Relative Strength lines that are at or near new highs. n

Spotting the Market Bottom

s Pictured: Veeva Systems (VEEV) held up relatively well during the February/March

correction, then took off starting in April. VEEV is one of the software/cloud stocks

that Charles is watching.

Page 13: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 13

3 Warning Signs to Get Defensive

By Scott St. Clair, Senior MarketSmith Product Coach

In a bad market like the coronavirus market crash, you want to play defense. Right now, things have recovered and are currently in an uptrend, but the severity of the virus crash was unprecedented and is still being felt in portfolios across the world.

We could revert to a market in correction at any point, which is why it’s important to have a defensive strategy determined ahead of time. That way, you won’t freeze up in a moment when you need to sell and protect your hard-won profits.

I firmly believe the best defense is to sell. That doesn't mean I go from 100 to 0 in a few minutes. You can be methodical; start by cutting your number of positions and/or position sizes. If I am in a stock that is "wrong" (breaking down) I will just cut it entirely and walk away. If the market continues to fall, keep cutting until you are out completely (or you keep an invested percentage so small that the losses don’t hurt your overall portfolio).

Here are 3 advance warning signs to look for in MarketSmith that tell me the market is showing weakness. Again, these aren’t panic signals to sell every stock you own, but taken together, they tell you that the overall market is not behaving correctly and you should start to cut back.

1) The Growth 250 list is shrinking.Despite the name, the Growth 250 list in MarketSmith doesn’t actually have a strict 250 stocks on it. The 250 is more of a target number that shrinks when the market is looking weak. The Growth 250 was designed to capture quality stocks based on 30 custom screens; if more stocks fail the screening, this list quantity drops. The screening criteria don’t allow the list to fill up with substan-dard names.

3 Warning Signs to Get Defensive

Page 14: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

14 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

3 Warning Signs to Get Defensive

2) There are no stocks on the Recent Breakouts and Breaking Out Today lists. A lack of breakout stocks is a big warning sign the market is not behaving well. During a confirmed uptrend, a sign of market health is strong breakouts on good volume that follow through (i.e. the breakout doesn’t fall too far below the original pivot point and result in a failed breakout).

3) There are no stocks on the Near Pivot list. The Near Pivot list is a great place to look for stocks building proper bases that are nearing a buy point. If there are no stocks on this list, that means there are no good stock setups that could be actionable in the near future. I use that as a sign to pause new buys and start scaling back my existing positions. n

TIP: You can quickly see how many stocks on the Growth 250 list at any moment by clicking on the orange “Open Stock Ideas” button on the top right of any

MarketSmith chart. Select the “Weekly Review” option and you’ll see “MarketSmith Growth 250” at the top next to the number of stocks on the list currently.

Page 15: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 15

3 Warning Signs to Get Defensive

TIP: Similar to checking the number of stocks on the Growth 250, it’s easy to check the number of breakout stocks in MarketSmith. Click on the orange “Open Stock Ideas” button and you’ll see both “Breaking Out Today” and “Near Pivot” at

the top next to the numbers of stocks on the respective lists.

Page 16: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

16 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

Considering Short Selling? Read This First.

By David Saito-Chung, Deputy Markets Editor, Investor’s Business Daily

As of early May, the market seems to have rebounded from the worst of the coronavirus crash. We’re currently in a confirmed uptrend, which is the ideal time to make new stock buys. However, no one knows yet the full impact of the coronavirus on the market and the econ-omy in the long run.

That’s why some investors are still stay-ing on the sidelines or, more bearishly, selling short. Generally speaking, they’re not trusting the rally to continue. It may, it may not; the point is, no one can predict how the market will act down the road. With shorting, it’s better to take a target-ed, technical approach rather than betting on your ability to predict the future.

First rule to remember: if it’s obvious to almost everyone that a stock or the general market is breaking down really badly, then you’ve reached the time when it’s too late to go short.

Going after the big market winners that have peaked and are going through a

major topping process is the right strat-egy. Knowing which sectors are headed for a severe decline will also help your chances of consistent profits.

My take on short selling is to be just as disciplined as you would be on the long side. Use chart patterns such as the head-and-shoulders plus a fast drop of 8% below a proper buy point in a late-stage base.

Pin your eyes on companies showing signs of slowing earnings and sales growth. An alternate short-sale sell point can emerge when the stock then encounters trouble in rebounding back above its 10-week moving average line (the red line on a MarketSmith weekly chart). Or an L-shaped pattern may form after the stock gets pounded really hard.

Considering Short Selling? Read This First.

Page 17: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 17

Considering Short Selling? Read This First.

You have to be skilled at reading charts objectively, spotting these patterns, and analyzing both price and volume in each week’s activity. It is easy to get the right stock to short but to turn out wrong with the timing!

Here’s another possible “dividend” to the practice: Selling short, or at least trying to identify the right time to do so, will sharpen the selling side of your overall portfolio management.

When I was writing “The Short Side” column for IBD in the 2010s, I had many personal discussions with our founder Bill O’Neil. He passionately studied what both the daily and the weekly charts re-vealed. That passion is key. To succeed in this tough game of short selling, you need to bring energy, effort and dedica-tion to the table. n

1

2

3

4

s Pictured: Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) is an example of a shorting opportunity presented by an L-shaped pattern.

1. Stock tops at 278.62, a gain of over 50% from its most recent buy point.

2. Falls sharply over 8 weeks then goes sideways for roughly 4 more weeks, forming the L-shaped pattern.

3. Short sale entry point: 143.14, 10 cents below the low during the week of No-vember 16, 2018.

4. Falls to a low of 98.56. Covering there would produce a gain of up to 45%.

Page 18: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

18 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

How to Spot the Next Market Leaders

By Mark Minervini, Bestselling Author and U.S. Investing Champion

The news media are usually wrong at major turning points. At a market bottom they’ll predict the end of the world, and at a top the same people will say you can’t go wrong investing in stocks. It can be very confusing if you listen to what peo-ple are saying instead of paying attention to what the stocks are telling you; in particular, the leading stocks.

More than 90 percent of superper-formance stocks emerge from bear markets and general market correc-tions. The key is to do your homework while the market is down; then you will be prepared to make big profits when it turns up.

During the first few months of a new bull market you should see multiple waves of stocks emerging into new high ground; general market pullbacks will be minimal, usually contained to 3 to 5 percent from peak to trough. Many inexperienced investors will be looking to buy a pullback that rarely materializes during the initial leg of a new powerful bull market, which

from the beginning can appear to be overbought.

Often, stocks that hold up well during bear market have strong earnings and sales, new products or services, or in-dustry changes that positively affect the company. However, a stock’s price trend may be temporarily held back or muted by the weight of the bearish overall trend of the general market.

This causes a stock’s price to decline, but not as severely as the prices of other stocks. These stocks are generally very resilient and bounce back into new high

How to Spot the Next Market Leaders

Mark Minervini is a veteran of Wall Street for over 35 years, the founder of Minervini Private Access and the bestselling author of 4 books, including Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard.

Page 19: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 19

How to Spot the Next Market Leaders

ground quickly off their lows. When the bearish market exhausts itself and turns up, stocks in their own earnings up cycle will blast off and advance significantly. On the flipside, stocks that are in their own bearish cycle may resist even a strong market and go nowhere.

It’s important to carefully study the price action of individual companies with new positive developments and strong earnings per share during mar-ket declines. Many of the most strongly rebounding stocks and the ones that hold up the best are likely to become the next leaders in an uptrend.

Market leaders tend to stand out best during an intermediate market correction or in the later stages of a bear market. Af-ter an extended bear market correction, look for stocks that hold their ground or, even better, work their way higher while the general market averages trend lower. A series of higher lows during lower lows in the general averages is a tipoff that a

potential market leader is in the making. The relative strength line of the stock should show steady improvement as the market declines, and I like to see a Mar-ketSmith RS Rating of 89 or better.

During a market correction, I look for the following:

• Resilient stocks that hold up the best

• Stocks that rebound the fastest

• Stocks that gain the most (percentage-wise) off the general market lows

• Stocks that are base-building

• Stocks that emerge first and hit a 52-week high just as the market is starting to turn up

Examples of some names that are leading the current rebound include: TDOC, ZLAB, NFLX, AMZN, HLI, VRTX, XLRN, LLY, CCOI, JD, CCXI, DOCU, CTXS. n

“A series of higher lows during lower lows in the general averages is a tipoff that a potential market leader is in the making."

Page 20: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

20 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

Scared out of the Market? Here’s How to Get Back in.

By Mike Webster, Head Market Strategist, Investor’s Business Daily

As trend followers, knowing the direction of the market isn’t a “nice-to-have,” it’s a must-have.

Luckily, we have some straightforward rules on recognizing market bottoms. The first and most important thing to look for is a Follow-Through Day (FTD). Keep in mind that not all FTDs will be successful, but it’s the simplest way to recognize when the direction is changing from a downtrend to an uptrend. During intermediate corrections and bear mar-kets, the key is to stay very light in the market. Many times, it’s best to just stay completely out of the market and wait for an FTD.

The concept of a Follow-Through Day is simple. You wait for an initial rally to be confirmed with another strong up day. That second rally or strong up day is what we call our Follow-Through Day. The concept can be boiled down to three simple data points: The Rally Day (or Day 1), The Low and The Fol-low-Through Day.

The Rally Day or Day 1 is the initial rally day. As the market is in a decline, the first up day is your Rally Day. The Rally Day can also be on a down day. A down day that closes in the upper half of the trading range is called a pink rally day, also Day 1. While it’s nice for the rally day to be a huge up day, the reality is they come in all shapes and sizes.

The Low is the lowest close on an index on or before the Rally Day. Many of the times it will be the low of Day 1 or the day before it. In some rare cases it may be a few days before Day 1.

The Follow-Through Day happens on Day 4 or after. Typically, this occurs be-tween Day 4 and Day 12. There are rare cases when it can take over 20 days to have your first FTD.

Scared out of the Market? Here’s How to Get Back in.

Page 21: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 21

Scared out of the Market? Here’s How to Get Back in.

There are three requirements for a Fol-low-Through Day.

1: The Low must have held. From Day 1 to the FTD, the intraday low of the low day cannot be crossed. If it is, the rally attempt is over and you need to look for a new low and a new Rally Day.

2: The volume must be higher than the prior day. While it’s nice for it to be above average, it only needs to be higher than the prior day.

3: The percent gain must be substan-tial. This has been a bit of a moving target over the years due to changes in volatility. Right now, that threshold is 1.25%. When volatility returns to the historical norms, that will move back down to 1%.

Your first FTD is the green light to start buying something. That doesn’t mean to plunge heavy into the market. Look for a stock or two that is in the proper position and purchase a small amount. If you start making progress on those trades, consider adding to those positions or find another stock or two to buy.

Bill O’Neil used to make sure all his portfolio managers bought something on a Follow-Through Day. He would ask us what we bought and if we didn’t buy anything, we would hear about it. “Why not?” Buy something as a probing posi-tion. That way, you have some skin in the game and you’re back in the market.

Besides the Follow-Through Day, there are some additional things to look for before investing more of your money in the market.

Wait for the low of the Nasdaq to be above the up-trending 21-day expo-nential moving average. It’s also helpful for it to be back above an up-trending 50-day moving average. Your final sign that the market is back in a healthy trend is the 21-day line being above the 50-day, and the 50-day being above an up-trend-ing 200-day.

From a defensive standpoint: If your stocks are not making progress or the market closes below the low of the FTD, then take immediate defensive action. Sell, raise cash and live to fight another day. n

Page 22: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

22 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com

How to Find the Best Stocks Right Now

By Arnie Gutierrez, MarketSmith Senior Product Coach

Right now, things are a little… unusual. But that’s OK. Good investors know how to handle uncertainty. You simply follow your rules and react to what the market is telling you.

In this market environment, I will be taking what I call macro and micro approaches.

My macro approach is looking at the big picture in relatively straightforward terms. I use MarketSmith’s 197 Industry Groups report to narrow my focus on the top stocks within the top industry groups. I’m looking for stocks in the top 20 industry groups. Of course, there will be perfectly good stocks with valid set-ups outside the top 20 groups. However, I really want to focus on the strongest of the strong during these times.

From there, I’ll narrow my list of stocks within the top 20 industry groups by using MarketSmith’s Pattern Recognition feature to find stocks currently building a proper base. I want a proper entry point

that minimizes risk; I’m not looking at aggressive early entry points.

My micro approach involves hunting for stocks that held up the best during the coronavirus market correction. I’ll be checking MarketSmith’s “RS Line Blue Dot” stock list every day. This list is an in-house favorite among the MarketSmith staff. It shows you stocks that are cur-rently building a base and have recently hit a 52-week high in Relative Strength (i.e. their outperformance compared to the S&P 500).

“OK,” you’re asking, “I found a handful of very promising stocks. What should I look for to determine if I want to buy it?” Here’s what I check.

How to Find the Best Stocks Right Now

Page 23: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 23

How to Find the Best Stocks Right Now

1. Does the stock I’m looking at show a base pattern forming on the weekly chart? That’s a must-have for me right now.

2. If I’m not familiar with the company, I’ll read an IBD article or check out a YouTube video on the company. I want to understand their business model, products and services.

3. The IBD Composite Rating has to be at or above 90. I’m not messing with anything that isn’t in the top 90th per-centile of all stocks right now.

4. The RS Rating should be above 85. Again, outperformance of the S&P 500 is key in uncertain markets.

5. The stock’s industry group should be in the top 20 of all 197 groups. I want the cream of the crop.

6. The Up/Down volume ratio should be 1.2 or higher. This shows strong positive demand for a stock—espe-cially among big institutions that drive stock prices.

7. I want the number of funds owning this stock to be either increasing or flat. I don’t want to see the number of funds dropping. If the big institutions start selling off their enormous posi-tions in the stocks I own, I ask myself, “What do they know that I don’t?” It takes institutions a long time to accu-mulate these sizeable positions; they’re not dumping them with little thought or reason.

8. I also look at the quality of the institu-tional sponsorship. I want to see one or two of the top-performing funds having a position in the stock. n

TIP: A quick way to check fund ownership is with a new feature recently added to MarketSmith. Open the “Related Information” panel to the right of any MarketSmith chart. Click the button that says “Owners & Funds” and then look at the table called “IBD Mutual Fund Index Ownership.” If some of IBD’s top-rated funds own this stock, they’ll be listed here, along with the total % of the fund’s assets that are in this stock.

Page 24: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

24 2020 Q2 Stock Guide MarketSmith.com24

Market Charts Nasdaq CompositeN

asda

q Co

mpo

site

Data

as

of M

ay 1

, 202

0

Page 25: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

MarketSmith.com 2020 Q2 Stock Guide 2525

S & P 500 Market ChartsS

& P

500

Data

as

of M

ay 1

, 202

0

Page 26: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

Copyright © 2020 Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., Investor’s Business Daily, IBD, CAN SLIM, and corresponding logos are registered trademarks owned by Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. MarketSmith is a registered trademark of MarketSmith, Incorporated.

The material contained herein is not to be reproduced, redistributed, published, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. and MarketSmith Incorporated.

Data provided under license agreement by William O’Neil + Co. Incorporated. All material presented here has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be accurate, but Investor’s Business Daily, Inc., MarketSmith Inc., and William O’Neil + Company, Inc. do not guarantee its accuracy and it may possibly be incomplete and/or condensed. The contents are based on the study and interpretation of available data as it relates to our historical models of the best performing stocks. This is not a prospectus; no effort on our part with respect to sale or purchase of any securities is intended or implied. Any chart appearing in this material is for educational purposes and is not, and should not be construed as a recommendation or rating to buy or sell any security. It is possible that at this date or some subsequent date the officers, directors and/or shareholders of William O’Neil + Company, Inc., MarketSmith Inc. and Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. and their affiliates own securities or buy or sell securities listed in the following pages or those not mentioned.

Standard & Poor’s US Index Data

Copyright © 2020, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”). Reproduction of S&P US Index Data in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P’s sources, S&P or others, S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P GIVES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P or its affiliates be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P US Index Data. (2012)

Page 27: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

© 2020 Investor’s Business Daily, Inc. Investor’s Business Daily, IBD and CAN SLIM and corresponding logos are registered trademarks owned by Investor’s Business Daily, Inc.

TRADE LIVE WITH THE PROS

investors.com/ibdlive

Get 2 weeks free at:

IBD Live is an interactive broadcast where our stock pickers, analysts and portfolio managers watch the market action and discuss the day’s top trade ideas. Listen to their conversations, see their screens and ask them questions—all in real time!

Page 28: The Road Back - MarketSmith · Get actionable investing content, unique financial stories and live videos with market updates on our Facebook page. _____ Get real-time updates on

1265

5 Be

atric

e St

reet

Los

Ange

les,

CA

9006

6

CON

NEC

T W

ITH

US

STO

CK

GU

IDE

// 2

020

Q2

The

R

oad

Back

SP

EC

IAL

ED

ITIO

N