THE RISKS OF LIFE Video Conference 5 Media & Misinformation.

THE RISKS OF THE RISKS OF LIFELIFEVideo Conference 5

Media & Misinformation

Newspaper HeadlinesNewspaper HeadlinesDaily Mail

“Obesity worse for cancer than smoking”“Is anything safe to eat? Cancer report adds

bacon, ham and drink to danger list”

Guardian“Stay trim and stop eating bacon, cancer report

declares”

The Sun“Bacon butty cancer risk”

“Careless pork costs lives”“Shock Cancer Alert. Save Our Bacon. Storm

as Butties Branded Killers!”

Butties Branded Killers!Butties Branded Killers!

OCTOBER 2007

The reason behind the The reason behind the headlinesheadlines

World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) issued a report on the

influences of nutrition and physical activity on Cancer.

They gave 10 recommendations for Cancer prevention

WCRF Recommendation WCRF Recommendation

“Avoid processed meats such as bacon, ham, salami, corned beef

and some sausages”

The EvidenceThe EvidenceThe “Convincing Evidence” states

that there is a 20% increased risk of bowel cancer per 50g

of daily processed meat

What is this really saying?What is this really saying?

Report20% increased risk of bowel cancer

per 50g daily processed meat

Fact Approximately 5 out of every 100 people

will get bowel cancer during their life.

ConclusionEating a huge bacon sandwich every day

increases the number of people getting bowelcancer to 6 out of every 100.

Simpson’s ParadoxSimpson’s ParadoxYou are suffering from a terrible illness.

There are two drugs you can take to cure this illness:(1) Drug A(2) Drug B

Both drugs are put on trial

Drug A Drug B

Day 1

Day 2

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1

Cures 63 out of 90 people

Day 2

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%

Day 2

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


Day 2

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


50%

Total

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


50%

Total

Which is the better drug?

Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


50%

Total



Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


50%

Total


67%


Drug A Drug B

Day 1


70%


80%

Day 2


40%


50%

Total


67%


53%


Drug A is Better!Drug A is Better!

You will reach the incorrect solution if you only consider the daily percentage results.

You are not comparing ‘like with like’.

Sports statistics, exam results are often reported in this way and can be misleading

if the data isn’t interpreted correctly.

Football League Tables

Which is the better team?

Played Win Lose Draw Points

Man Utd 12 8 3 1

3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw



Man Utd 12 8 3 1 25




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 25

Arsenal 13 6 1 6




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 25

Arsenal 13 6 1 6 24




Man Utd 12 8 3 1




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 17




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 17

Arsenal 13 6 1 6




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 17

Arsenal 13 6 1 6 18



Man Utd 12 8 3 1 25

Arsenal 13 6 1 6 24




Man Utd 12 8 3 1 17

Arsenal 13 6 1 6 18

Medical and Security Testing

Suppose there are 100 students in your year group, and one of which has stolen another

student’s lunch money. To find the thief everyone undergoes a lie detector test which has an accuracy of 95%. The lie detector says

you are a thief. What is the chance you are actually the thief?

What is the chance you are actually the thief?

17% 84% 5% 95%

Understanding Uncertainty Bayes Theorem animation

Statistics used in CourtStatistics used in Court

Sally Clark

On the 9th November 1999, Sally Clark, was convicted of

the murder of her first two children.

What was said in Court?What was said in Court?

Chances of 1 child dying from SIDS = 1 in 6,500

Chance of both children dying from SIDS

= 1 in 73,000 000

21

6500

Was Sally Clark guilty?

What wasn’t said in court?What wasn’t said in court?

The birth of two children are NOT exclusively

independent events.

What wasn’t said in court?What wasn’t said in court?Statistics of two babies dying

from the same mother:

One third caused by rare but known natural causes (not SIDS).

One third associated with child abuse.

One third true “SIDS” deaths.

2 in 3 chance of innocence, rather than a 1 in 73 million chance of innocence.

What wasn’t said in court?What wasn’t said in court?

Probability of a mother murdering

2 of her own children is

1 in 2,200,000,000

Much lower than the probability of

both children dying from SIDS

1 in 73,000,000

Compulsory InvestigationCompulsory Investigation

Using probability to understand medical and security test

results.

THE RISKS OF LIFE Video Conference 5 Media & Misinformation.

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Transcript of THE RISKS OF LIFE Video Conference 5 Media & Misinformation.