The Risk Management component of

Continuous Improvement

Oregon IIMT MeetingMay, 2010

Three Levels of Risk Management

1.Strategic

2. Deliberate

3. Time Critical

Strategic Risk Assessment

Overview

• Identifies threats to values at risk

• Evaluates alternative prospects

• Anchors response on firefighter exposure

• Emphasis on tradeoffs between exposure and protection objectives

• Explicitly considers safety

• Incorporates exposure assessment directly into strategy => “Exposure Budget”

The SRA Process

Strategy Point Protection and Check Lines

Total Prospect Area (acres) 17, 500

Prospect Containment Line Completed (chains)

264

Planned Contingency Line (chains)

160 chains (estimate)

Resource Values At Risk See Risk Assessment (Tables 1A - 1C)

Critical Infrastructure At Risk See Risk Assessment (Tables 1A - 1C)

Structures at Risk See Risk Assessment (Tables 1 A- 1C)

Estimated Incident Responder Exposure (person hours)

72,964 person hours

Estimated Cost $3.9 million

Prospect One (Point Protection – Checking) Details

• NU 1

• Rone Ranch

• 43.2817°N 122.5908°W

• Very low probability of fire reaching resource

• Probability of damage

or loss commensurate

with fire severity.

• Consequences of loss - $250,000 for structure plus timber values.

• Evacuation, fuels reduction, structure protection Coordinate with DFPA.

• Action Trigger – 3 burn periods before fire reaches the site.

• NU 2

• Doehead Mountain Electronic Site

• 43.2055°N 122.6265°W.

• Low probability of fire reaching resource.

• High probability of success surviving a low severity fire.

• Low potential for the building to burn down.

• Significant disruption of communications.

• $100,000

• Fuels prep before the fire reaches the building would need to be done.

• Action trigger-Expected fire perimeter to be within 1 mile of the site within 24 hours.

Resource Consequences, Effects Mitigation and at Risk Probability and Severity Action Trigger

Resource TypePersons Per

Resource UnitNumber of Resource Units

(Phase 1/Phase 2)

Total exposure Phase 1 (person-

hours)a

Total exposure Phase 2 (person-hours)

T1 Crews 20 4/0 1,120 0T2 Crews 20 11/3 21,560 19,320Engines 3 15/10 2,940 6,440Dozers 1 1/0 98 0Water Tender(s) 1 1/1 196 644Chippers 1 1/1 98 0Lowboy 1 1/0 98 0Skidder 1 1/0 98 0Fixed Wing A/C 1 1/1 42 138Type 2 Helicopters

2 1/0 84 0

Type 3 Helicopters

1 1/1 42 138

Overhead 1 105/8 10,290 2,576Total Exposure 43,386 29,578

Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x (Length of Prospect Phase). The total exposure (Phases 1 and 2 combined) for the entire 30-day Prospect is 72,964 person hours.

Resource # People # Units Phase 1/2 P1 Exposure P2 Exposure

Prospect Details – Prospect 2 (Full Perimeter Control)

Strategy Full Perimeter Containment Using Indirect Line

Total Prospect Area (acres) 52, 200

Prospect perimeter (chains) 3,360 chains

Planned Contingency Line (chains) None – full perimeter containment

Resource Values At Risk

Aquatic and terrestrial habitat including ESA listed species habitat (Coho salmon and Northern Spotted owl), forest timber production lands, Heritage resources, Late Successional Reserves

Critical Infrastructure At Risk None

Structures at RiskAgency Improvements: Boze shelter, shelter, Rocky Ridge shelter, Twin Lakes East trailhead, and the Black Rock Fork stream logs.

Estimated Incident Responder Exposure (person hours)

377,202 person hours

Estimated Cost $22.0 million

Resource TypePersons Per

Resource UnitNumber of Resource

Units Total exposure (person-hours)a

T1 Crews 20 20 117,600T2IA Crews 10 10 58,800T2 Crews 10 10 58,800Fellers 2 50 29,400Engines 2 36 21,168Dozers 2 20 11,760Water Tender(s) 1 30 8,820Graders 1 3 882Type 1 Helicopters 2 4 1,008Type 2 Helicopters 2 8 2,016Type 3 Helicopters 1 4 504Overhead (line) 1 75 22,050Overhead (camp) 1 151 44,294Total Exposure 377,202

Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x (Length of Prospect Phase). The total exposure for the entire 21-day Prospect is 377,202 person hours.

Resources Required and Exposure AssessmentProspect Two (Full Perimeter Control)

• Course of action

• Least exposure prospect that meets reasonable objectives of the AA

• Worth exposing firefighters

• Reasonably safe

• AA committed to stay within the exposure budget

The Risk Based Decision

Risk Assessment on the Incident

Three Levels of Risk Management

1.Strategic

2. Deliberate

3. Time Critical

HAZARD = a condition that exists with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of equipment or property; or mission degradation.

Definitions

Definitions

• RISK = the probability and severity of loss linked to hazards.– The probability of an undesirable outcome.

• RISK ASSESSMENT = the identification and assessment of hazards.– The first two steps of the risk management

process.

Definitions

• RISK MANAGEMENT = The process of identifying, assessing and controlling risks arising from operational factors and making decisions that balance risk exposure with mission benefits.

THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS

M o n ito r S itu a tion

E xe cu te D ec is ion

E va lua te R isk vs G a in

Id e n tify O p tio ns

A sse ss R isks

Id e n tify H aza rds

Id e n tify M iss ion

Risk Management Process

Define the level of risk

Define the level of probability

Define the level of severity

Is the risk level acceptable?

Can the risk be eliminated?

Can the risk be mitigated?

Can the residual risk be accepted? (if any)

Take action and continue the operation

An action is being considered

Identify hazards/consequences and assess risks

NO

NO

NOCancel the operation

YESTake action

and continue the operation

YESTake action

and continue the operation

YES

YES

Feedback andrecord the hazardidentification and assessment and risk mitigation

ICAO Safety Management Systems (SMS) Course

What can we do with risk?

• Mitigate (reduce)

• Transfer (give it to somebody else)

• Avoid (“No-Go” decision)

• Accept (but do so deliberately)

Alternative 215A

1Negligible

2Minor

3Major

4Hazardous

5Catastrophic

5Frequent

4Occasional

HIGH

3Remote

MEDIUM

2Improbable

LOW

1Extremely

Improbable

Lik

elih

oo

d/P

rob

abil

ity

Severity

Defining Probability and Severity Levels

Residual Risk

The level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected.

MISSION ANALYSIS

• Risk is analyzed at the mission level. • Mission is directly related to an incident

objective. • Provides a means of identifying decision

points.• Is a record of completed actions.

MISSION ANALYSISMission Objective Decision

PointTasks Status

Protect Kerosene Ranger Station by constructing direct line on Lantern Ridge

1

Conduct Scouting and Hazard Identification

2 Establish Anchor & construct line

3 Burn Out Line in Division A after Line in Division C is completed.

Secure line

MISSION ANALYSISMission Objective Decision

PointTasks Status

Protect fishery habitat values in Gasoline Creek using tactics that limit fire intensity to low level.

1Conduct Scouting and Hazard Identification

2Utilize low intensity firing operations to secure fire perimeter at creek.

Not viable due to Wx.

3 Utilize indirect perimeter control on Grease Ridge

4 Burn out line at night to reduce fire intensity.

Secure line thru prioritized Mop-up Actions

Time Critical

Risk assessments done “on the fly” by firefighters at the ground level.

Deference to expertise.

Make risk decisions at the appropriate level.

Doctrinal approach.

Risk management is more than just an analytical process, it is a different way of communicating.

Risk sharing relationship with agency administrator

What is the risk vs. the gain?

Is the risk worth the amount of exposure?

DISCUSSION