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The rising digital intensity of manufacturing Changing the rules of the game Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D....
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The rising digital intensity of manufacturing
Changing the rules of the game
Irene J. Petrick, [email protected]
Irene J. Petrick
SIM – DC City Club
May 13, 2014
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
AbstractIn the past several decades, manufacturers have seen disruptions coming from competing production technologies and from low cost global competitors. Today and into the future, the disruptions are coming from sources many don't even see coming. Specifically, the future manufacturing landscape will be enabled by developments in information technology. Access to high performance computing at a cost competitive rate will level the playing field for advanced modeling, analytics and simulation. When combined with developments in 3d printing/additive manufacturing, one-off highly customized production will compete with mass production. Current manufacturers will need to learn how these 3d printing/additive manufacturing technologies can coexist alongside their more traditional processes. As these tools become simpler to use, Internet-savvy hobbyists and do-it-yourselfers will effectively be able to challenge very established firms. Cloud supported services will be a viable replacement for extensive enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management systems and will provide the real time visibility into the supply chain and production environment that customers will demand. And the final IT based enabler that will democratize manufacturing? Social-media based funding models such as Kickstarter. In the coming decade the installed base that has been a barrier to entry for new firms will become a barrier to change for many established manufacturers.
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
• Assertions– 3D printing/additive manufacturing is ON THE
HORIZON and will achieve end-part quality in multiple materials in the coming years
– The roles and rules of traditional supply chains are becoming obsolete
– Competition will come from unexpected participants– Economies of scale will go from a barrier to entry to a
barrier to change
• Economies of One will coexist and compete with Economies of Scale
• Digitally intensive tools will change the face of manufacturing
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
IT driven trends in the production & operational environment
FUTURE SCENARIO
IT driven design and production
enables Economies of
One
Trend 1: Technical (high performance)
computing capabilities enable
complex design and simulation
Trend 2: Additive manufacturing attains commercial viability for multiple materials
Trend 3: Cloud-based IT solutions
reduce administrative overhead for smaller
enterprises and enable new business
modelsTrend 4: Social
media-based funding models democratize
production investments
Trend 5: Internet savvy do-it-yourself hobbyists embrace
open source innovation tools
Design & production as experimentation
The rise of the “Any Man”
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” -- Arthur C. Clark
• Where is the magic?– Design– Production– Post Production– Delivery/distribution
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
DesignPost
Production
Distribution
Simplified ecosystem
• Well understood roles & responsibilities• Reducing complexity is key to competitive
advantage• Design as a “finished” input to production
Production
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Changing nature of design & designers
Design Design SoftwareISVs, Computing
Hardware
3D Printer
Co
nve
rte
rs &
Tra
nsl
ato
rs
Scanners, Smartphone Apps
Reverse Engineering& Modeling
Internet DesignFiles & KitsApp Designers
Hobbyists &Prosumers
AnimatorsEngineersArchitects
ManufacturersDesign Firms
Imagination DigitalCustomization, Solid Models, Surface Models
Physical DigitalModeling External and Internal Features
Digital ActionableStandards, File Formats, Instruction Sets,Design Rules
Unique FirmwarePrinter Manufacturers
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Design
Changing nature of production & post production
3D PrinterPost
Production
Polymers, Powders, Binders, GasMaterials Producers, Auxiliary Suppliers
Inventory SitesMaterials Producers,
Printer Makers, Distributors
Unique HardwarePrinter Manufacturers
Net/NearNet Shape
Parts
Experimentation & RedesignCollaborative Innovation
Post Production
Fixturing & Material
Removal
Surface Finishing
Feature Enhancements
Heat Treatment
Physical Feature TestingPart Characterization, Material Handling, Recycling
Process Parameter FrameworkToolpath, Process Plan, Machine Parameters, Support, Orientation, Material Parameters
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Printer Hubs
Changing nature of distribution
3D PrinterDesignPost
Production
Direct Distribution
UPS, USPS, FedEx
3D Printer
3D Printer
3D Printer
Printer as the Ultimate FAX Machine
Local Manufacturing or Traditional Shipping
Local Manufacturers
Internet File
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
The dynamics of Economies of One …
• Fewer clear boundaries in the design-build-deliver paradigm
• Design and production as experimentation• Modeling & designing-in complexity yields
competitive advantage• Proximity matters• From long-term planning to real-time
planning• IT becomes a critical skillset
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Local Artisan & Craftsman Production
Centralized Production &
Delivery
Centralized Production with Distributed Low
Cost Supply Sourcing &
Distributed Delivery
MechanizationUrbanization
& Capital Consolidation
Modern Transportation & Information Systems
Mass Customization & “My Way” Consumer/Customer Demand
Internet-based Business
Processes & Design with Virtual
Manufacturing Production
Competitive Advantage through Economies of Scale & Scope
Competitive Advantage through Economies of One
Manufacturing Returns to the Garage
The return of the artisan entrepreneur
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
myFactory
QUESTION: Who is a manufacturer? Who
is a designer?
Cubify.com
TheMicro.com – Kickstarter Funded
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Cloud-based business models
Intermediary
Distributed Network of 3D Manufacturers
Virtual Factories
ProsumersEngineersArchitects
Makerspaces, Job shops3D printer hubs
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
For existing manufacturers …
Great gifts• Customization is feasible
(Economies of One)• Production of
replacement parts is simplified
• Manufacturing is sexy again
• Entrepreneurs drive change in unanticipated ways
Serious challenges• We don’t know how to
design for this technology• Cloud-based business
models enable artisan entrepreneurs to compete
• Extensive installed base is a barrier to change
• Digital intensity increases the demand for skilled IT professionals
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
The future is here…
SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014
Dr. Irene J. Petrick is a Penn State University professor and managing director of the TrendScape Innovation Group. She is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping and has been actively engaged in advanced manufacturing issues. Her research interests include technology forecasting, collaborative innovation and business ecosystem development. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with twelve Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small to medium sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management and product development in both the academic and industrial settings. She has been named a Boeing Welliver Fellow, a CSC Faculty Intern in India, and has spent three summers full time with Intel Corporation focused on innovation strategies (2010-2012). Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. (http://strategic-technology-roadmapping.com/)