2013 Illinois Farm Economics SummitThe Profitability of Illinois Agriculture: Managing in a Turbulent World

The RFS and Crop The RFS and Crop Markets: Where to from Markets: Where to from Here?Here?

Scott Irwinsirwin@illinois.edu

University of Illinois

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

0.0 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.8 5.5 7.3 9 11 13 1518

21

910.5 12 12.613.213.8

14.415

1515

1515

15

15

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gal

lon

s (b

illi

on

)

Year

U.S. Renewable Fuels Standards, 2008-2022

Advanced Renewable

20% GHG Reduction

50% GHG Reduction

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Gal

lon

s (b

illi

on

)

Year

U.S. Renewable Fuels Standards, 2008-2022

Cellulosic Biodiesel Undifferentiated Renewable

20% GHG Reduction

50% GHG Reduction

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

0.100.25

0.50

1.00

1.75

3.00

0.0065 0.0066 0.00865 0.006 0.0170

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eth

ano

l (b

il. g

al.)

Year

RFS Statutory Mandate and EPA Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for Cellulosic Ethanol, 2010 - 2015

Statutory Mandate

EPA RVO

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eth

ano

l (b

il. g

al.)

Year

E10 Blend Wall, 2009 - 2015

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

10.5

12.0

12.6

13.213.8

14.4

15.0

13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eth

ano

l (b

il. g

al.)

Year

E10 Blend Wall and RFS Statutory Renwable Mandate, 2009 - 2015

Statutory MandateBlend Wall

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

“renewable gap”

10.5

12.0

12.6

13.213.8

14.4

15.0

13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eth

ano

l (b

il. g

al.)

Year

E10 Blend Wall and RFS Statutory Renwable Mandate, 2009 - 2015

Statutory MandateBlend Wall

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

The Ethanol Market: No Mandate

Price

Quantity

1.1 x Pcbob

13

DemandSupply

Pe

Gasoline Blenders

Selling Price

BuyingPrice

13 bil. gal. = E10 blendwall

5 bil. gal. = minimum for MTBE replacement

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

The Ethanol Market: RFS Mandate

Price

Quantity

1.1 x Pcbob

13

DemandSupply

Pe

12.6

Gasoline Blenders

Selling Price

BuyingPrice

RFS2011

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Price

Quantity

1.1 x Pcbob

13

DemandSupply

Pe

12.6

Gasoline Blenders

Selling Price

BuyingPrice

13.8

RFS2011

RFS 2013

The Ethanol Market: RFS Mandate

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Price

Quantity

1.1 x Pcbob

13

DemandSupply

Pe

12.6

Gasoline Blenders

Selling Price

BuyingPrice

13.8

RFS2011

RFS 2013

Additional biodiesel mandate

The Ethanol Market: RFS Mandate

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Pri

ce (

cen

ts/g

al.)

Date

Weekly (Thursday) Price of D4 Biodiesel and D6 Ethanol RINs in the Secondary Market, 04/03/08 - 08/15/2013

D6 Ethanol RIN

D4 Biodiesel RIN

Source: OPIS

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

2014 RFS 2014 Proposed 2013 EPA RVO Requirement EPA RVO

Cellulosic biofuel 6 mil. gal. 1.75 bil. gal. 17 mil. gal.

Biomass-based diesel 1.28 bil. gal. > 1.0 bil. gal. 1.28 bil. gal.

Advanced biofuel 2.75 bil. gal. 3.75 bil. gal. 2.2 bil. gal.

Total 16.55 bil. gal. 18.15 bil. gal. 15.21 bil. gal.

Implied renewable fuel 13.8 bil. gal. 14.4 bil. gal. 13.01 bil. gal.

Note: These volumes are in ethanol equivalents, except for biomass-based diesel which is stated in actual “wet” gallon terms.

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

E10 blend wall challenges drove EPA policy shift:

“The proposal seeks to put the RFS program on a steady path forward - ensuring the continued growth of renewable fuels while recognizing the practical limits on ethanol blending, called the ethanol "blend wall.“

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

http://www.epa.gov/OTAQ/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f13048.pdf

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

E10 blend wall challenges drove EPA policy shift:

“The proposal seeks to put the RFS program on a steady path forward - ensuring the continued growth of renewable fuels while recognizing the practical limits on ethanol blending, called the ethanol "blend wall.“

Novel legal argument for renewable mandate write down:

“inadequate domestic supply”

EPA Proposed 2014 RVOs

http://www.epa.gov/OTAQ/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f13048.pdf

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

Analysis of RFS Write Down Alternatives

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015Advanced 2.75 2.20 2.57 2.75 2.20 2.57Renewable 13.80 13.01 13.01 13.80 14.40 15.00 Total 16.55 15.21 15.58 16.55 16.60 17.57

Compliance: Mainly BiodieselDomestic Ethanol 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.8E85 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7End-of-Year RINs 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 9.7 11.0 10.7 10.2 21.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0

Compliance: Mainly E85Domestic Ethanol 13.1 13.6 15.2E85 0.1 0.4 2.6End-of-Year RINs 1.2 0.0 0.0Ethanol Imports 0.5 0.1 0.1Biodiesel 1.4 1.4 1.9Biodiesel Feedstock 10.7 10.2 14.1Corn for Ethanol 4.8 4.9 5.5

Note: All units in billion gallons except biodiesel feedstock (bil. lbs) and corn for ethanol (bil. bu.)

Advanced Only Advanced and RenewableWrite Down Write Down

2013 Illinois Farm Economics Summit

farmdoc daily: December 4, 2013

www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu