www.steerdaviesgleave.com

Issue 38  May 2010

the reviewSteer Davies Gleave’s news & reviews

Implications of the Urban Challenge Fund • Designing an integrated transport experience

Stadia fit for the World Cup • Northern hub: from bottleneck to economic gateway

Insight into the Future special

This edition comes out in the middle of election campaigning in the UK. Whatever shade on the political spectrum the new government represents, it will, of course, face some of the tightest budgetary constraints in decades. To respond to this, the case for continued investment in public transport needs to be made compelling so that improvements made in recent years continue and our towns and cities remain places in which we will want to work and live. We outline the role the Urban Challenge Fund might play and consider an example of transformative plans with the Northern Hub.

We also have a special feature this quarter, ‘Insight into the future’ which starts by looking at how some past predictions have measured up to real life and then looks at how changing social trends and new technologies might affect how we travel in the years ahead. It is always worth reflecting on which extrapolations of our current behaviours as travellers and consumers are firmly set and which are more precarious. Will changes such as ubiquitous videoconferencing or exponential growth of car clubs or all-mode carbon taxes act as subtle shifts or game changers?

Best regards Stephen Crouchceo

t Risingtothechallenge/p4-5Why has the UK government announced plans for the new Urban Challenge Fund and what will it mean for local authorities?

t Frompassengerinformationtobetterbusnetworks/p7Standardised timetable databases. They may not sound exciting but they are what we need to improve transport networks and the passenger experience.

t Designinganintegratedtransportexperience/p8-9We believe that transport should not only help us move around but help make our cities better places to live.

t TheNorthernhub/p10-11From bottleneck to economic gateway. Rail improvements in Manchester have the potential to radically improve the economic competitiveness of the UK’s North.

t StadiafitfortheWorldCup/p12From South Africa 2010 to Brazil in 2014 to (hopefully) England in 2018, we are helping to transform the stadia experience and provide a lasting legacy.

t InsightintotheFuture/p13-19How will social trends and technology affect our transport and the way we travel in the future? What will happen to the car? What can the past teach us about forecasting for the future?

CEO’s comment

welcome april 2010

Features

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Steer Davies Gleave’s Regional Director for Latin America, Gloria Hutt, has been named as the new Chilean Vice-Minister of Transport

(Subsecretaria de Transportes). Chilean President Sebastián Piñera appointed Gloria based on her excellent track record of delivering transport projects, including several high-profile road and public transport projects across the region.

SDG’s head of LATAM appointed Chile’s Vice-Minister of Transport

Calendar competition winnersOur 2010 Calendar featuring sporting events from around the world proved extremely popular this year. We were overwhelmed with the number of entries to our competition and decided to draw two winners.

Many congratulations to Alastair Lenczner of London-based architects Foster + Partners who can now add competition solver to his prodigious drumming skills. Our relationship with Alastair goes back to our work on Wembley Stadium but, more recently, we have been working with him and Foster + Partners on a Saudi Arabia high-speed rail project. We have also recently worked with Foster + Partners on the Isle of Dogs Crossrail station and Glenkerrin Tower.

Big congratulations also go out to Jeffrey Seider of MKI Canada, an urban development consultancy based in Toronto. We have been working with Jeff since 2008 developing rapid transit benefit cases for Toronto’s transport authority, Metrolinx.

Both are now new owners of the Kindle wireless reading device. If you would like a free copy of Steer Davies Gleave’s 2010 desk calendar please contact marketing@sdgworld.net

april 2010 in brief

Gloria has worked for Steer Davies Gleave for 12 years heading the company’s Central and South American presence in Chile, Colombia and Puerto Rico, and more recently, launching the company’s new offices in Mexico and Brazil. The appointment is a great testament to Gloria’s expertise and reputation across the region and we wish her the best of luck.

Winner Alastair Lenczner with his new Kindle.

We are pleased to announce two new members of our Executive team – Hugh Jones and Steve Hewitt have been appointed Practice Managing Directors and will join CEO Stephen Crouch and Sales & Marketing Director Fred Beltrandi in developing and growing the company’s offer to clients around the world.

New Executive TeamHugh has applied his strong leadership skills and keen business mind to supporting transactions across the full spectrum of the transport sector, and in the last two years, he has headed our Transactions and Strategy Division and became a Director. Steve’s career in transport consultancy spans more than 30 years, including high-level roles at Eurostar and Railtrack. His extensive technical expertise and broader management skills, particularly in sponsorship of major transport projects, brings valuable input into the company’s future direction.

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Getting in on the Transport DebateSteer Davies Gleave is supporting Transport Debate 2010, a new website for professionals involved in the transport sector to raise the level of transport debate in the lead up to the UK’s General Election 2010.

Transport Debate provides a forum to voice opinions on topics such as climate change, finance, road-user charging, high-speed rail, rail franchises, planning, cycling, Heathrow’s third runway, road safety, Crossrail and local government.

Some views posted recently include:

Richard Hebditch of Campaign for Better Transport commenting on local governance, “As we come up to the election, party policies on transport are remarkably similar (leaving aside a slight difference of view about Heathrow)... But behind this consensus loom impending spending cuts which will fall heavily on transport. Local transport authorities will be particularly hard hit with less funding from central government... leaving aside the promise of the two city-region pilots, the parties’ policies on localism will not address the gap between responsibility and capability.”

Ross Martin from Centre for Scottish Public Policy adds his thoughts on HSR, “Remember incoming Prime Minister Tony Blair’s answer to what his three policy priorities would be in government? ‘Education, education and education’ was his studied reply. This time it’s different. There is only one priority. One issue. One line that should be THE priority of any incoming UK Government; A Union Rail – a high speed line to link the engines of the UK economy, our cities.”

VIsit www.transportdebate.co.uk and bring your tranport priorities to the forefront of the debate.

Despite a substantial increase in the amount that the UK government has invested in local transport, many towns are still congested, have unreliable public transport

and an unpleasant environment. This fact was highlighted in early March by Minister of State for Transport Sadiq Khan MP as he announced plans for the new Urban Challenge Fund (UCF) – an initiative to support local authorities to deliver economic growth, and improve the health and environment of towns through transport improvements.

The UCF will replace the existing Transport Innovation Fund (TIF) and the money previously channelled through the Sustainable Travel Towns initiative. It is a clear sign that future spending will be aimed at embedding transport planning within broader economic, environmental and social planning, as part of a long-term vision. It also aspires to support local leadership to tackle congestion, safety, health and climate change through innovative solutions and partnership working.

While a welcome move, it is aptly named. Local authorities will find it challenging not only to broaden their thinking but also to provide the evidence to demonstrate success across a wider range of objectives than before. Novel and more effective approaches to delivery will also be needed.

As the Government works out the specifics of the proposed UCF, we look at the reasons behind it and what it could mean for local authorities.

The bigger picture, not bigger infrastructureFollowing the report by the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit on Urban Transport1 published late last year, which concluded that some of the best transport improvements can be achieved inexpensively and efficiently, emphasis on integration and innovation makes much more sense. Evidence from the Sustainable Travel Towns pilot studies2 has shown that reductions in traffic and improvements to the environment can be delivered much more cheaply than by simply providing more and bigger infrastructure. Smarter Choices measures can provide these improvements at lower cost and without impacting on a town’s prosperity. Indeed the benefits that these approaches bring can make places more attractive to investors and better for businesses to operate in.

In addition, UCF will help overcome a key problem with TIF. Progress through TIF has hit the buffers through the Government’s insistence of linking the award of this money primarily to implementing road-user charging. In Manchester, as in Edinburgh before, public opposition to this effectively scuppered the whole package of transport improvements planned. And with no ‘Plan B’, the local authorities in Manchester have had to go back to the drawing board in terms of funding their proposals and looking for other sources of finance.

Rising to the challenge – implications of the Urban Challenge FundBy Chris Ferrary

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north america urban transit

What does it mean for local authorities?With several wider objectives to consider, UCF will require a real change in the way that local authorities plan and deliver transport strategies.

To secure funds, transport strategies will need to combine sustainable travel measures, investment in demand management and travel information, better public transport, city-wide traffic management and improved street design. They will have to be fully integrated with spatial planning policies to reduce the need to travel and to promote sustainable travel choices through the new place-shaping agenda. Decision-making will have to change to make sure delivery arrangements work across geographical

and operational boundaries, and guarantee the necessary step-change in delivery. Local authorities will be invited to put forward proposals to secure monies from UCF on this basis. These will need to be consistent with emerging Local Transport Plan strategies, but capable of accelerated delivery with the right backing, and provide enhanced benefits as a result. However, value for money for both the package as a whole, and key elements individually, will still have to be demonstrated.

Opportunities and challengesLeeds and Manchester have been chosen as pilot City Regions which means that the Government will be giving these areas much greater local influence over key decisions on strategic highway and rail improvements – this is an important step in giving local authorities the tools to do the job and shows the potential of what UCF would hope to achieve. The progress and success in delivering innovative approaches to transport that the pilot City Regions make will be held up as examples for others to follow. Their success will pave the way for other towns and cities to bid for money from the Fund to enable them also to develop the foresight and leadership to deliver better transport solutions.

However, a key issue that will need to be addressed will be the way in which the bids for UCF are considered.

As we have seen with the Regional Funding Allocations, making the strategic case for investment in transport is not enough to secure funds, and the detailed scrutiny of business cases for individual schemes by DfT is a very effective brake on local expenditure, being an expensive and time-consuming process in its own right.

But whatever the outcome of the forthcoming election, some change of this type seems likely. The UCF is mirrored by similar proposals from the Tories. Their Transport Carbon Reduction Fund would allow councils and voluntary groups funding for ‘green’ travel initiatives to encourage cycling, improve real-time information and priority measures for bus services.

The Government is presently consulting on the arrangements for the Fund, and responses are welcomed until 4th June.

To find out more contact Chris Ferrary t +44 (0)20 7910 5000e chris.ferrary@sdgworld.net

policy local transport planning

1 “An Analysis of Urban Transport” - November 2009.

2 Sloman, L. (et al) – “The Effects of Smarter Choice Programmes in the Sustainable Travel Towns” - Report to the Department for Transport, February 2010.

Underlying aim of the UCF is to deliver clear benefits in terms of:

t Enhanced mobility through offering

people wider choices for their journeys

t Reduced congestion and increased

journey time reliability

t Better health as a result of

improved safety and much greater

levels of walking and cycling

t Streets and public spaces that are

enjoyable places to be, where exposure

to harmful emissions is reduced and

where quality of life is transformed

t Improved safety

t Reduced level of carbon

emissions from transport

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Milton KeynesMilton Keynes

Reading/WokinghamReading/Wokingham

CambridgeCambridge

Southampton Southampton Portsmouth Portsmouth

Blackpool Blackpool

AldershotAldershot

Cardiff Cardiff SwindonSwindon

YorkYork

The cycling potential of UK townsOur new Cycling Potential Index (CPI) ranks the towns

and cities in England and Wales by their underlying attractiveness for cycling in terms of terrain,

demographics and travel patterns. We used mapping data on the variability of height to create the terrain

index; our TravelStyle geo-demographic system to identify the propensity to cycle among different

segments of the popoulation; and the Census Journey to Work to identify the proportion of work

trips that are of readily cyclable distance (1-8 km).These separate indices were combined into a single

index and then weighted to reflect the fact that many cycle trips are not for work. The CPI can be used to help devise strategies for cycling for a whole town

or city, or at a much more local level. In fact, for towns and cities near the bottom of the ranking,

this drilling down would seem to be essential in order to overcome some of the inherent

challenges faced. On the other hand, for those fortunate enough to be nearer the top, the question is more about exploiting the underlying potential.

For more information on how the index was calculated, along

with the full rankings visit www.steerdaviesgleave.com/

press/opinion/cpi

market research cycling

york -Of the 47 major towns surveyed, York takes the top spot as having the most potential for cycling. It ranked highly in all three indices (terrain, population profile and travel patterns).

Ranking out of 47 major towns

Terrain: 4

Population profile: 14

Travel patterns: 17

reading/wokingham -Reading/Wokingham came third, with relatively high rankings in terrain and population profile.

Ranking out of 47 major towns

Terrain: 9

Population profile: 5

Travel patterns: 39

cambridge -While Cambridge’s travel patterns were on the low side, its high rankings in terrain and population profile helped boost it to second place.

Ranking out of 47 major towns

Terrain: 5

Population profile: 1

Travel patterns: 44

© Crown Copyright Reserved, Ordnance Survey2008 TeleAtlas B.V.s Hertogenbosch. All rights reserved.Transport for London

38 - 4729 - 3719 - 2811 - 181 - 10

legend Metropolitan Urban Areas ranking

Out on the town and need to find your way home via the nearest rail station or bus stop? Accessing travel information via electronic media is rapidly becoming the norm, especially

since the advent of 3G and Smartphone technology. At the heart of this functionality sit standardised timetable databases, which were originally produced to provide passenger information and enable journey planning tools. However, with added technologies such as GPS and real-time information, they are now also being used by bus operators and local authorities to provide sophisticated network management and monitoring tools to deliver more efficient and reliable bus networks.

The evolution of timetable databasesIn the UK, local authorities supply standardised timetable data to Traveline, which then provides passenger information via regionally-focused call centres, the web and mobile phones. The data also feeds the Transport Direct national journey planning website, real-time passenger information systems and the timetables found at bus stops.

It took a while for Traveline and the Transport Direct journey planning service to develop into what it is today, and there are some

useful lessons that can be learnt from their evolution. The main one is a standardised approach to data formatting. This ensures that data accuracy is maintained across all providers and users. So there is no need for Traveline to manually intervene or change the data for their own use, or anyone else they provide the data to. This means that the Transport Direct portal gets the accurate data it needs to provide a national journey planning service and real-time information systems are able to provide accurate and consistent information to the end user (such as the live information we see at bus stops).

And more recently, that same data is now being used by bus operations managers which enable them to interrogate vehicle schedule adherence and adapt timetables to reflect ‘real world’ traffic conditions. In addition, network managers can use these systems to locate congestion hotspots and the potential need for bus priority interventions – all of which help improve the network and deliver a better service.

The way forward Using our experience of working with the Traveline model we were able to assist French bus operator Transdev in developing a standardised approach to data management on the island of Malta.

We worked with Transdev on their bid to deliver a new public transport network for Malta. Central to the

bid was a modular GPS-based ‘Automatic Vehicle Loacation’ (AVL) system which would help Transdev deliver a reliable, quality-driven network and keep a close eye on how their fleet is managed in real time. At the heart of the proposed system is a robust standardised timetable database which will provide the baseline for schedule adherence and timetable performance. The system will also give the Maltese Transit Authority (MTA) an overview (via a web browser) of real-time operations, allowing them to ensure that the operator is achieving agreed schedule adherence targets. It is hoped that the AVL system will provide a positive feedback loop for improvements to timetables and thus the services provided to the public. Once the AVL system is up and running, it will also provide a backbone for the delivery of passenger information via electronic signs, the internet and mobile phone.

The early standardisation of timetable data structures has certainly allowed Traveline to offer greater functionality – and will hopefully offer the same opportunities to improve transport networks and the passenger experience for Malta and others.

To find out more contact Craig Nelson t +44 (0)20 7910 5000e craig.nelson@sdgworld.net

From passenger information to better bus networksBy Craig Nelson

technology travel information

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Moving from place to place is as much of a part of what we do as eating and sleeping. But over time our cities can become disjointed and their physical constraints can add

complications and cost when trying to improve transport connections through the public realm or to build new facilities.

Integration addresses these challenges. It is about linking transport with its surrounding context; making connections to help people to move around; improving interchange opportunities; making public transport more attractive to existing and potential passengers; and how an integrated transport system can contribute to cities and city regions to achieve their broader economic, social and environmental objectives while making people’s lives easier and more enjoyable.

Steer Davies Gleave has been working with authorities across the globe developing design solutions, policy and guidance that address local needs through clear, practical and innovative thinking. Here we look at three examples where our

integrated design experience is helping transport authorities make a difference.

Transport for London, Interchange Best Practice Guidelines 2009, UKWe produced Transport for London’s Interchange Best Practice Guidelines (IBPG) 2009, which was launched by the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, and the UK’s Minister for London, Tessa Jowell, at the official opening of the new Northern ticket hall at King’s Cross St Pancras station in November 2009.

The Spatial Management Principles and thematic Evaluation Framework contained within the guidelines are already empowering Transport for London (TfL) to raise the standard of interchange design by delivering consistent advice and guidance to those within Transport for London and their delivery partners, including the London boroughs.

In developing the IBPG, a comprehensive review of current international guidance and policy related to interchange was undertaken, including one-to-one meetings and workshops with key stakeholders such as Design for London, Borough Partnerships, accessibility

groups, Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment, Department for Transport, Network Rail and TfL’s modal directorates. Reviews of interchange facilities in cities including Newcastle, Manchester, Liverpool, Berlin, Madrid and Amsterdam were also undertaken.

The IBPG is TfL’s first guideline document to be published as a website, with a complementary printed Quick Reference Guide designed to be portable and easy to use on site, that sets out top level principles and the key questions related to interchange design.

Designing an integrated transport experience By Phil Berczuk

complications and cost when trying to

Local area map

Stance signifier

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The updated Interchange Best Practice Guidelines 2009:

t Provide a practical toolkit for those involved in the planning, design and operation of transport interchanges

t Provide a framework for evaluation of the quality of existing and proposed interchanges, based on established appraisal techniques

t Raise awareness of TfL’s understanding of best practice, encourage its promotion and adoption by all parties

t Assist in the preparation of broader planning policies such as Local Development Frameworks and Opportunity Area Planning Frameworks

t Act as a portal to access useful and related best practice information and guidance

t Ultimately, improve the quality of planning, design and operation of interchanges

The guidelines can be found at www.tfl.gov.uk/interchange

Ealing Broadway Interchange, UKThe London Borough of Ealing, Crossrail and Transport for London recently commissioned a team led by Steer Davies Gleave to design and assess a series of interchange improvement options at Ealing Broadway Station. The study will develop a robust and auditable long-term solution for Ealing Broadway to meet current and future passenger needs and changes in demand due to local development and the introduction of the new Crossrail railway for London.

The study will focus on improving the urban environment and bus operations in the area. The appraisal of each option will be based on an assessment the interchange’s function, access, impact, timing, costs and buildability. The study will recommend a preferred option which will need to be ‘future-proof’ and able to cope with the future demands of local residents and visitors to the area.

Amman Bus Rapid Transit, Jordan Appointed by the Greater Amman Municipality, Steer Davies Gleave is leading a team including Sigma Engineering and Tahan & Bushnaq Architects to design Phase 1 of the Amman Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Jordan. The BRT is one of the city’s most ambitious transport projects and aims to deliver a step change in urban mobility for the Jordanian capital by 2011.

The Phase 1 network design is nearing completion and includes 30 kilometres of exclusive BRT lanes, as well as high-quality stations and facilities integrated into the local public realm. The creation of improved pedestrian facilities and new public spaces is central to the project’s wider objectives to transform the perception of public transport in Amman and to realise a pedestrian-friendly city for the 21st century.

To find out more contact Phil Berczukt +44 (0)20 7910 5000e phil.berczuk@sdgworld.net

integrated design transport interchangesmaking the connections integrated design

Clock

Service information

Weather protection

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It is well known that the economies of the North of England perform relatively poorly when compared to other areas of the country. In 2004, the Northern Way Growth Strategy report identified a number of transport objectives to address this economic gap. These closely reflect the conclusions on investment focus contained in the Eddington Transport Study subsequently published in December 2006, namely better links within and between the city regions and improved connections to global gateways.

As part of our work for the Northern Way, an initiative working to improve the North’s economic opportunities, Steer Davies Gleave helped develop these objectives into a Strategic Direction for Transport. This examined which transport interventions, in terms of policies and schemes, would best serve the aim of radically improving the North’s economic competitiveness. It identified the Northern Hub in Manchester as the single most important investment needed in the North’s rail network, as it critically affects the operation of both freight and passenger services across the whole of the North.

There is no capacity available to increase the number of trains using Manchester and because the network is operating at capacity, it adversely affects reliability. This impacts on trains linking the North’s city regions, trains serving Manchester Airport

and commuter services to Manchester, as well as freight. We supported Northern Way by setting out the evidence of the Hub’s importance to the North.

Responding to the Northern Way’s evidence, on 4th October 2007, the then Department for Transport Minister of State, Rosie Winterton, announced that a study would be undertaken to develop proposals to enhance the capacity and functionality of the Northern Hub.

A novel approachTypical studies into transport investment follow the process by which the strategic objectives are compared to the current transport provision to identity

the problems that need addressing. Following this, infrastructure and service interventions are identified that may address these problems. Finally the cost and benefits of these interventions are identified to establish whether there is an economic case for investment. We find that sometimes a case is identified and sometimes it isn’t.

For the Northern Hub, we turned this process around and developed an innovative two-phase approach. This allows an affordable solution to be designed to realise the benefits, rather than developing a solution with a hope that it will deliver a worthwhile business case.

Northern hub – from bottleneck to economic gateway of the NorthBy Alastair Hutchinson and Peter Wiener

StaybridgeVictoria

to Wigan

to Bolton / Preston / Glasgow

to Liverpool

OxfordRoad

NewRailway

NewPlatforms

NewPlatform

Northern Hub Investment

AdditionalTracks

AdditionalTracks

AdditionalTracks

Stockport

GuideBridge

Glossop

Manchester Airport

Piccadilly

to Halifax / Bradford

to Leeds,the Humber and

the North East

to Sheffield,the Humber and

the East Midlands

to Londonvia Macclesfield

to Londonvia Crewe

to Liverpool

Northern Hub Corridors

business case rail

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The focus of the Phase 1 study was to establish the benefits associated with improved services. Stakeholders’ aspirations were captured through a consultative process and translated into an improved, hypothetical, service specification that was used to calculate potential benefits. Unlike a normal appraisal, there were no scheme costs at this stage to compare with these benefits. Instead, the benefits were broken down by geographical corridor, type of flow (into Manchester, cross-city, airport, etc) and source (journey time improvement, crowding improvement, etc). This allowed us to calculate the level of benefit per improvement (in journey time or available peak seats terms) which fed into a Conditional Output Statement setting out a set of desired improvements to journey times, frequency and connectivity as well as carbon emissions, based on the study and other evidence.

The Phase 2 study, led by Network Rail, worked to identify ways to deliver the ‘conditional outputs’ and to realise the potential economic benefits within affordability and value-for-money constraints. Its conclusion identified a preferred solution that could facilitate an enhanced timetable that met many of the conditional outputs identified in the Phase 1 study. A full appraisal of costs and benefits was undertaken for the preferred solution.

Phase 1 studySteer Davies Gleave supported Northern Way to deliver the Phase 1 study by developing and implementing a bespoke modelling framework, encompassing a number of analytical approaches to establish the benefits that a ‘test timetable’ matching stakeholders’ aspirations for improved services might generate.

These, together with a separate analysis of freight impacts, fed into the detailed disaggregated rates of benefit in the Conditional Output Statement1. The key finding is that there are substantial economic benefits to be gained by unlocking the Hub’s capacity.

Phase 2 study We also worked with Network Rail in the delivery of Phase 2, both through the use of the Phase 1 models and by seconding an experienced consultant into the Network Rail team. Network Rail considered a number of different potential infrastructure schemes to deliver the conditional outputs, which were worked up into two potential solution packages.

At the option generation stage, the Phase 1 modelling tools were used to help determine the correct linkages of cross-Manchester and airport services (i.e. which corridors to link with direct services).

The modelling suite was also used to estimate the benefits associated with each of the two solution packages, ensuring consistency with the approach for Phase 1.

The study identified a preferred solution to be taken forward for future development. At the heart of this is a new chord that will, for the first time, allow direct train services between Manchester Piccadilly and Victoria stations. As well as making better use of the network capacity, it will create opportunity for new rail links across Manchester and to Manchester Airport. Benefits of the preferred solution outweigh costs by 4:1.

With the cost of the scheme exceeding £500m the next challenge is to secure funding. Network Rail will continue to work on the scheme over the next year with a view to ensuring that the project is included in funding plans for the period 2014 – 20192.

To find out more contact Alastair Hutchinson or Peter Wienere alastair.hutchinson@sdgworld.nete peter.wiener@sdgworld.net

business case rail

1 The report can be found at www.thenorthernway.co.uk

2 The results of the Phase 2 study are available at www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/Resource-Library/Manchester-Hub-Rail-Study-c5a.aspx

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On 11th June this year, millions of eyes from all over the world will be trained on Johannesburg’s magnificent new Soccer City Stadium to see the opening fixture

of FIFA’s showcase World Cup event.

While fans at home will no doubt be watching the spectacle on TV monitors big and small, those lucky enough to be in South Africa for the world’s largest single-sport event will have an experience until now never enjoyed in that part of the world.

Six of the stadium venues being used for the 2010 World Cup will be brand new or substantially refurbished to bring them in line with modern European standards. Fans will be able to sit closer to the pitch and enjoy first-rate facilities, but perhaps most importantly, they will be able to attend football matches with fewer concerns about safety and security.

Many of the practices and techniques that have enabled this revolution in the standards of South African stadia have come through lessons learned on projects from the previous World Cup held in Germany and from the construction of first-rate venues in the UK.

The Emirates and Wembley stadiums in London have set the benchmark for a world-class spectator experience, offering clean, safe, modern spaces for visitors to

not only watch the game but enjoy plenty of facilities where they can eat, drink, socialise and soak up the atmosphere. When considering the sheer numbers of people that descend on match and event days, how to move them safely to, around and away is critical to the success of the modern stadia. During Steer Davies Gleave’s long-term involvement with both projects, we provided vital input on the stadiums’ designs in terms of accessibility and ensured effective control of crowd and traffic flow in and around the stadiums.

By improving the overall spectator experience, the stadiums attract more visitors and become venues that can used for more than just sport. It is this model that gives stadia a genuine, viable financial legacy and which is being used in South Africa, where we have worked with both Soccer City, and the new Durban Stadium. But before a ball is even kicked in South Africa, much attention is already focusing on the 2014 World Cup host: Brazil.

As a country obsessed by football and regular winners of the World Cup trophy, Brazil is an obvious choice to host the event. It is this passion combined with their economic stability and a rapidly expanding middle class that make their stadium development programme for the 2014 World Cup an essential step in changing the way the sport is currently viewed in their country.

Fears over spectator safety, and the shortage of home-grown talent left in the Brazilian leagues have resulted in

dwindling attendances at most stadia. The investment in European standard upgrades of venues and their transport facilities for the World Cup represents a great opportunity to encourage spectators back to stadiums, and put the game back on a solid financial footing in Brazil.

Brazil will use 12 venues for the tournament, the majority of which will be new or subject to significant upgrades. Drawing on our European experience and our Sao Paulo team’s local expertise, Steer Davies Gleave has been contracted to five of the stadium design teams.

We will build on our project experience in London and South Africa to help the architects and stadium operators improve safety, incorporate FIFA’s requirements, and critically, to ensure the spectator experience remains central to the design process.

As we wait to see how the new stadia in South Africa are received by the world’s media, Steer Davies Gleave will be hoping to bring that experience to bear back in the UK as we work with the Football Association on the bid to bring the World Cup to England in 2018. Once the bid is submitted, we will be eagerly awaiting the announcement of the decision in November 2010.

To find out more contact Will Durdent +44 (0)20 7910 5000e will.durden@sdgworld.net

Stadia fit for the World CupBy Will Durden

development planning stadia

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The world seems an especially uncertain place right now, what with uncertainties over recovery from recession and the possible establishment of a ‘new norm’, together with doubts created by climate change and associated environmental threats like peak oil. This seemed as good a time as any to think about the future and what it may bring to the transport and travel arena. The following pages provide a flavour of this thinking, covering topics such as emerging social trends, the future of the car, and ticketing technologies for public transport. We also look back at yesterday’s forecasts to see how well they fared, and whether there are useful lessons to be learnt. Tony Duckenfield, Head of Market Research & Insight

insight into the future

special insight into the future

A prime example of a prediction gone wrong is a quote made by Ken Olson of Digital Equipment Corp. in 1977: “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” In fact it was estimated that in 2008, eight out of 10 households in Europe owned a computer and that 96% of the people between the ages of 16 and 74 used it everyday. While Olson may have made that remark without any actual formulae or modelling to back him up, forecasting is a serious profession for many and a fundamental element in strategic decision-making in all aspects of business and life, including transport. So looking back on forecasts from past decades can offer some valuable insight for the predictions of the future.

Published examples of reviews of forecasts are quite rare1, but one example is by Mitton et al who in 1971 produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK2 and comparing these forecasts with what has actually transpired makes interesting reading. The overall finding is that some aspects were forecasted quite accurately, while some under-estimated and others over-estimated the strength of a trend. This is illustrated in some detail in Figure 1, which compares the forecast versus actual participation in a selection of leisure activities.

For example, the forecast for DIY, reading a book and going to the cinema were pretty accurate, while participation in ‘going for a drive’, going to the theatre and knitting or sewing were overestimated, with the opposite being true for listening to recorded music, dining out and going for a walk. The reasons for the mis-forecasts have some useful lessons in them, with the authors of the forecasts identifying the following factors:

t Under-estimating the impact of new technology (e.g. the Walkman)

t Limitations in the data available on which to base the forecast (e.g. they had limited data on regional variations)

t Some trends prevalent at the time the forecasts were made simply ran their course and fell away (e.g. going for a drive has fallen away as the novelty of the car has worn off)

t Some social trends were either under-estimated (decline of interest in knitting and sewing), and others were simply not expected (decline in theatre-going, or rapid rise in ten-pin bowling)

Underlying these forecasts of leisure participation were predictions for socio-demographic trends such as age, income, social class, and, probably of most interest,

car ownership. At the time (1971), 50% of households had a car and the expectation was that this would rise to 82% by 2001. In actuality, the growth in car ownership was over-estimated as it was 73% in 2001, and still hasn’t reached this level3.

This is attributed to expecting that wealth would be distributed more evenly: between the war and 1970 inequality had been falling, but from the 1970s onwards, the income distribution has become more polarised, not less. This is therefore an example of expecting a trend to continue, rather than changing direction, in this case in what might be regarded as a counter-intuitive direction.

However, there may also be another factor at work, which is that some people actually don’t wish to own a car (as opposed to not being able to afford one) and that the number (or even existence) of this

Yesterday’s future

special insight into the future

Looking back nearly 40 years ago to see what forecasts have come to pass – and those that haven’t – provides some valuable lessons for the forecasts we may be making about the future.

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Tabl

e te

nnis

Knitt

ing

or s

ewin

g

Dar

ts

Thea

tre

Art g

alle

ry

Goi

ng fo

r a d

rive

Chur

ch

Gar

deni

ng DIY

Cine

ma

Read

ing

a bo

ok

Goi

ng to

the

pub

Wal

k (m

ile o

r mor

e)

Foot

ball

spec

tato

r

Volu

ntar

y w

ork

Car c

lean

ing

Car m

aint

enan

ce

Swim

min

g

Din

ing

out

Reco

rded

mus

ic

Snoo

ker

Ten-

pin

bow

ling

% d

iffe

renc

e be

twee

n fo

reca

st a

nd a

ctua

l

Actual less than forecast Actual same as forecast Actual greater than forecast

Figure 1 Forecast versus actual leisure participation

14

seems like a sensible approach, even if in the end, a central estimate is made (along with some upper and lower bounds). Bearing this in mind, the following article introduces some of the wider social trends which are likely to affect travel and transport over the next 5 to 20 years.

To find out more email our Market Research and Insight team on insight@sdgworld.net

minority was underestimated4. If this is the case, then it would be an example of failing to segment the population properly: the temptation is to forecast on the basis of the majority or average view, and not to complicate matters by considering how trends might differ across groups within the population.

Teleworking predictionSo how have our own predictions fared? Forecasts related to technology seem to be particularly problematic, so looking back at our predictions for teleworking would seem to be a worthy example.

In 2000, we undertook a desk-based study with TRL for the Highways Agency on the potential impact of Information Technology on travel behaviour and use of the highway network. Our forecast was for the number of teleworkers to increase from 1.2m to 2.5m in 2010. At the time, we pointed out that this was very much more conservative than other estimates. For example, NERA, in its 1997 report ‘Motors and Modems’ was predicting that teleworking would reduce commuter road traffic by 36% over the next 20 years.

The actual number of teleworkers in 2005 was 2.25m5 so our forecast therefore looks reasonably accurate, if a little on the conservative side (a reflection of our normal approach to forecasting uncertain events). Our forecast also explicitly did not take account of any growth in the size of the workforce, or the ‘knowledge industry’ specifically. A restructuring of the economy is therefore now likely to raise the ceiling we identified on the potential for teleworking, due to the falling number of jobs which require a physical presence in a workplace.

Interestingly, in the 2001 update to ‘Motors and Modems’ sponsored by the RAC Foundation, the prediction was that within 10 years teleworking could cut 15% of commuter traffic and reduce congestion by 45%. This still looks on the optimistic side: in 2005 the percentage of the workforce who telework was 10% at most, and many of these only telework once a week, so their impact on trip volumes is noticeably less. Furthermore, many teleworkers do so to avoid the commute into London by train, with minimal impact on the road network.

This could be an example of ‘optimism bias’: too much emphasis being placed on factors which support the trend and potentially generate positive media coverage (such as the RAC Foundation’s press release on how online technology could ‘reduce growth in traffic congestion by up to 45%’), and insufficient critical thinking or challenge.

ConclusionIt seems that the answer to the initial question posed is, sometimes they’re good (or lucky) and sometimes they’re not. When they’ve missed the mark it is often due to some unforeseen technological or social trend (or a combination of both). Furthermore, misreading the adoption of technology or the influence of a social trend can work in either direction: it is very difficult to predict when a trend is going to run out of steam, find new life, or change direction completely.

Nevertheless, it does seem that where an attempt has been made to consider some of the wider influences, this can help the forecast. Since these wider influences can be relatively nebulous, scenario planning

special insight into the future

1 We are in fact currently undertaking a study for the DfT looking at the accuracy of forecasts made for new stations.

2 A Social Forecast Revisited, Roger Milton and Michael Willmott (2005)

3 In 2007 it was 76%, source: Transport Statistics Great Britain, DfT, 2009

4 The Car in British Society (RAC Foundation 2009) explores car ownership growth in some detail comparing this for different income bands and rural v urban areas

5 Source: Labour Force Survey

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

Ken Olson, Digital Equipment Corp, 1977

15

Societal changes seem to be particularly hard to predict because they rarely keep to straight line trajectories (unlike demographic trends, for example) but instead tend to be subject to tipping points and radical shifts in direction. Furthermore, they tend to be fuzzy by nature, hard to describe, and even harder to quantify. Nevertheless, since travel is heavily dependent on travel for social reasons (with work travel also affected by how society is organised) it follows that it is affected by societal changes. In this article, six social trends are very briefly introduced to prompt thought and discussion concerning some emerging issues that have the potential to change travel behaviour.

As illustrated in Figure 1, these trends are interlinked, are also accompanied by other social trends, and also influenced by some major underlying factors such as climate change, demographic change, and ongoing technological development. One of the interesting characteristics of these varying trends is that they often work in opposing directions, so the skill in trying to understand their effects lies in deciphering the interactions between the trends, and identifying which ones will dominate.

Globalisation The greater ease and reduced cost of longer distance travel, plus the ability of the internet to break down geographic barriers almost entirely, mean that people are sharing ideas and information from an increasingly wide range of sources. This enables trends to cross the globe rather than be focused on a neighbourhood, region or country. In fact, country boundaries will become increasingly meaningless, and people across the world increasingly homogenised. The importance of global

brands in consumer goods, finance, and entertainment will continue to increase, with companies searching for economies of scale on an international level.

For those wishing to escape globalism it will mean tracking down remote destinations which have yet to be globalised. It also means that there is less point in travelling abroad, if all you find is a slightly different version of what you can find on your doorstep.

It equally has implications for the workplace, where there will be an increasing need to communicate with colleagues living in very disparate locations, potentially meaning that the central workplace (typically the office) becomes less important and remote working (including teleworking from home) more so.

Localisation Localisation is a counter-trend to globalisation and reflects a desire for people and places to retain their identity.

It will be fuelled also by environmental concerns about the transport of goods and people over unnecessarily long distances. Purchasing locally-sourced goods and holidaying sustainably will become what many will consider the ‘proper’ thing to do.

The clash of these two trends will probably end in a compromise. Brands and places will conform to many of the general trends but look to add a local ‘twist’. Shoppers will be given the choice between locally produced goods, and the additional variety that sourced goods from further afield can deliver.

In terms of the workplace, it is likely to mean that people from across the world working in a specific field end up moving their residence and place of work to clusters of excellence, like small-scale Silicon Valleys. This agglomeration effect is likely because people are essentially social animals and like being with other people sharing similar interests.

Six social trends set to change how we travel

special insight into the future

Health & Fitness

PersonalisationPersonalisation

Smarter living

Happiness

Sustainability

Localisation

Agglomeration

Mobile web

Globalisation ConnectivityConnectivity Time poverty

Search for reality

Flight to qualityData

(overload)Data

(overload)

Cleaner cars

Ageing populationAgeing population

Internet

Resource sh

ortages

New

technologies

Climate change

New

technologies

Major underlying in�uenceWorkLeisureShoppingHolidaysPersonal businessVfr (Visiting friends / relatives)

Figure 1 Map of key trends

16

Smarter living The recession has

led to people thinking more seriously about their

expenditure, and in some cases, about more fundamental things such as what makes us happy. It has highlighted the point that having more money and more material goods doesn’t necessarily lead to greater happiness. Another trend is the ready availability of increasing amounts of information via the internet. These three factors combine into a trend towards smarter living which means making more informed and rounded decisions, in which environmental issues are considered as well as those which affect the individual and their happiness.

A good example of a product which fits well with the concept of smarter living is car clubs. Being a member of a car club avoids conspicuous consumerism and, depending on the need for a car, can be a more efficient and less expensive option.

Note that a counter-trend to this is time poverty, and one can expect that only some segments of the population will adopt a smarter living lifestyle, though some elements of it are likely to be adopted more widely. Products which are personalised (or appear to be) will be attractive to this wider group since their objective of choosing a smarter product can be realised without having to invest time in research (this product ticks all my boxes so why look elsewhere?).

Search for reality The ‘search for reality’ is to some extent a backlash to the digital world. It affects where we look to go on holiday, the food we want to eat, our hobbies and interests, and the brands with which we wish to be associated.

For example, it means greater interest in ‘experiential’ holidays where untouched countryside or original cultures can be experienced first hand. It means choosing food where the provenance is known and the level of processing minimised. Interest in genealogy and family history can be expected to be on the increase, along with participatory sports.

Regarding sports activities, a supporting trend is the backlash to a sedentary lifestyle and a desire to be fitter and healthier. In transport terms therefore, the ‘search for reality’ is very much a positive trend in that it implies an increase in travel (going to places and events to experience them, rather than just seeing them on a screen, even if it is 3D), and also an increase in walking and cycling.

Time poverty Curiously, as technology has enabled us to do more in less time, we actually seem to have less free time, not more. Faster technology seems to have created a never-ending loop where there is a continuous push for speed and productivity, and we’re always trying to keep up with the next generation of computers and gadgets. One of the consequences of improving technology is that we have access to increasing volumes of data. However, this is combined with less time to sift through it, so there will be an increasing need for reliable sources of personalised information which screens out irrelevant data. The disadvantage to this is that new ideas and creativity more generally are fuelled by random connections which this process will stifle. Genuine creativity may therefore become a more valued resource.

Time poverty is an important trend in relation to travel, since travel is a major user of time. This means that speed is important,

but not at the expense of quality (see ‘flight to quality’) and it may be that enabling travel time to be more productive is a more important consideration. This is facilitated by the development of mobile technologies which mean that working or socialising remotely via the internet is becoming not only easier, but also the behavioural norm.

Flight to qualityThe ‘flight to quality’ is at least in part a consequence of the recession and time poverty, and is related to the ‘smarter living’ and ‘search for reality’ trends. In an increasingly uncertain world people are taking refuge in quality, but consuming it in a smarter way, such as by checking that the quality is genuine, and by being more selective about luxury purchases. This, for example, includes renting rather than purchasing luxury items, and purchasing little, affordable luxuries rather than big-ticket items.

Although quality and luxury are not quite the same, there is a strong link between the two: all luxuries have to be good quality, though there are some quality items that wouldn’t be seen as luxuries because they are primarily functional – a quality kitchen or household appliance, for example.

In terms of travel, it may mean that people are more selective about when they travel (replacing some travel with technology), but when they do, they want to travel in comfort, or in an environment where they can use their time effectively.

To find out more email our Market Research and Insight team on insight@sdgworld.net

special insight into the future

Source material includes: Future Files, Richard Watson; Future Foundation; Connected Britain debate 2010

17

We are currently approaching a ‘tipping point’ for transport payment methods on the way to a cash-free future. London’s Oyster card has shown the way, but the next step is the employment of multi-application smartcards and contactless ‘EMV’ payment cards for small transactions. These systems will help to overcome the high cost of introducing closed systems like Oyster, and over the next five years or so we can expect a rapid increase in their use in paying transport fares.

An example of a multi-application smartcard is the Barclaycard One Pulse card that contains an Oyster application along with a conventional credit card and a contactless payment card for purchases up to £15, all on a single card. Beyond this there are some exciting possibilities based on new technologies, some of which can already be seen on a small scale, but which could become mainstream.

The drivers behind new technologiesThe technological developments are all very well, but their existence doesn’t necessarily lead to adoption. However, there are some compelling reasons why new ticketing technologies are being adopted. Firstly, there is the benefit of reduced cash handling costs. The costs of collecting, transporting and securing cash are high. A bus operator in Central America spends $25,000 per month in cash handling charges. There is also the increased risk of theft, particularly from buses.

Then there is the potential for additional revenue streams. New technologies enable operators to consider different ways of doing business which can result in better services being made available to travellers that increase patronage and hence revenue. By making the payment process less visible (and painful) it can encourage spontaneous trip-making, and place public transport on a more even playing field with the car.

For the traveller there is greater customer convenience. With a smartcard there’s no need to worry about having change or obtaining the right fare: you’re guaranteed to be given the best deal and not to be overcharged. With ticketing products on NFC-enabled mobile phones things could get even easier.

The benefits to operators and customers and the inexorable tide of new technology mean that moving towards cashless payment for transport seems inevitable, though whether it will ever reach its conclusion and cash be eliminated entirely is up for debate.

Article written by Mike Burden of Consult Hyperion. For more information email mike.burden@chyp.com

“Smartcards, please”

special insight into the future

Emerging ticketing technologies

Looking ahead further than a few years

is difficult with any certainty because

of the plethora of technologies to

consider. We have selected a few:

t Mobile phones as contactless cards. NFC technology means that a mobile

phone (or other hand-held device)

can emulate a contactless smartcard.

Furthermore, in reader mode, NFC

devices will be able to act as card

readers allowing them to be used as

devices for uploading ticket products.

t Smart chips in USB dongles. A USB

stick could be plugged directly into

a PC to upload your tickets or top-up

your stored balance and then taken

on the journey as the e-ticket.

t Long Term Evolution (LTE). A new high

performance air interface for cellular

mobile communication systems. It is

the last step toward the 4th generation

of radio technologies designed to

increase the capacity and speed of

mobile telephone networks. This

could be important in the near future

if everyone is to be online all the

time and purchasing or downloading

tickets in a ‘just-in time’ manner on

the move. LTE networks are already

emerging in the USA and Europe.

t Cloud Computing. More and more data

is being held in the ‘Cloud’ and accessed

by users from anywhere using various

access devices. There are security and

synchronisation issues to be solved,

but we believe that cloud technology

might feature in allowing new services

to be rapidly set up in the future.

t e-Paper (e-Ink). Reflective display

technologies are emerging that require

power to change the display, but very

little power to maintain the display. One

can imagine a ticket in the future that

is eye-readable and what is displayed

might show how the ticket is currently

being used (unlike today’s smartcards

that show nothing without a reader).

18

While the car has been getting its name dragged through the mud for its more than healthy contribution to climate change, with an estimated 51 million cars produced in 2009, it’s unlikely that the car will ever go away. Instead, manufacturers are hard at work at bringing out the next generation of environmentally-friendly engines.

Alongside new vehicle technology, a number of other technological developments are focusing on improved car journey efficiency and environmental impact, including ‘smart’ navigation tools and applications, intelligent roads and vehicle-to-vehicle networking.

These technologies attempt to provide intelligent feedback loops where sensor and locational technology provides traffic management systems with real-time updates on journey progress. The traffic management system (be it national or regional) will respond accordingly with dynamic routing information or in-car warnings about potential congestion. It is believed that this will lead to better traffic management, the anticipation of congestion before it happens, and a reduced need for road-building. The potential for combining smarter vehicles with smarter roads is therefore an interesting one.

Better navigationSatellite navigation for cars has become a popular travel tool for drivers. While early models were non-dynamic (they couldn’t take into account current or predicted traffic conditions), manufacturers are starting to harness the power of traffic data which provide drivers with more economical and congestion-busting routes. As more traffic and road condition data is collected, the better the routing will become and the less time drivers will be stuck in queues. These ‘intelligent’ routes are based on both real-time and predicted road conditions, and will update automatically as road conditions change. And with the rise of the smart phone, software developers are now providing specific satellite navigation for mobile devices. The highest grossing App is currently TomTom’s version of its navigation software for the iPhone. The potential for providing feedback-driven pre-trip travel information to drivers through mobile devices is enormous.

The networked vehicleThe Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) initiative has been gaining popularity in the US. The goal of this initiative is to connect vehicles with their physical surroundings in order to improve the safety, efficiency and convenience of a transport system or network. The idea is that key vehicle telematic data (such

Greener cars and smarter roads ahead

special insight into the future

as speed, braking, direction of travel) can be shared across vehicles to allow for great efficiency – using this data, groups of vehicles could travel at a steady speed and react to changes in the road network, thus saving fuel and travel time. Essentially this approach could warn drivers about traffic jams before they occur. There are other uses, including automated sharing of incident data (if a car has been stuck in traffic) and rerouting to more efficient routes. This in turn could mean that less road space needs to be dedicated to the car.

Smarter roadsWhat if roads were smart enough to collect and generate energy from the vehicles that use them? A project in Israel is testing embedded Piezo Electric Generators to harvest energy created by vehicles passing over them – these generators contain piezoelectric crystals that create electricity when squeezed. This energy can then be passed back into the Grid or distributed to specific public infrastructure, such as street lighting. The manufacturer of this technology is also testing on railroads, pavements and airport runways.

To find out more email our Market Research and Insight team on insight@sdgworld.net

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Helping handsThe beginning of 2010 was rocked by two devastating earthquakes, the first one hit Haiti in January, and just over a month later, many of our colleagues in Chile felt the force of an 8.8 magnitude earthquake. Steer Davies Gleave staff around the world have been taking it upon themselves to help raise funds for the relief efforts in both countries, and have shown a great deal of creativity, team spirit and generosity through charity football matches, bake sales, pot luck lunches and pub quizzes. Over £4000 has been donated to the Disasters Emergency Committee and A Roof for Chile (pictured below) so far.