The Report - Manningham

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Transcript of The Report - Manningham

Page 1: The Report - Manningham

M A N N I N G H A M 1

Page 2: The Report - Manningham

2 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

Manningham

Welcome to the Jellis Craig Report. This report is designed to provide an insight into the key economic, demographic and sociocultural factors that currently affect the Melbourne property market, particularly for suburbs within the city of Manningham.

This year’s report has defined the top five factors as:

1. The global liveability of Melbourne, which

continues to drive interest from abroad

2. Australia’s economic transition to a consumption

based open market experiencing slow growth

3. Record low cash rates and rising household

debt, which has led to tighter lending conditions

4. Changes to Australia’s foreign investment rules

and regulations

5. New developments that continue to

evolve in our city

As the Melbourne property market adapts to record low cash rates, new foreign investment regulations and revised lending conditions, the Manningham area has experienced a shift in the balance of owner-occupier and investor activity.

The property market in the inner east and south eastern suburbs will remain an attractive option for local and international buyers, however the changing environment has moderated price growth to a more sustainable level.

Jellis Craig Doncaster 8841 4888 1/1006 Doncaster Road, Doncaster East

The demand for property within the city of Manningham is

driven by:

— The need for medium density housing as the population of

Manningham grows by an estimated 18,000 people over the

next 20 years (source: .iD Consulting Pty Ltd)

— Historic low interest rates enabling buyers to access more

money, rebalancing the proportion of owner-occupiers within

the market

— The desire for homes in well-established residential locations

as families aspire to live near high-quality education and

transportation routes

— The growth of lone person households as the older workforce

and retiree segment of the population increases

The city of Manningham is known for its unique mix of city and

country living, with an abundance of parklands, thriving retail

hubs and a diverse range of community facilities. The area

continues to attract large numbers of young adults and families

based on proximity to education, employment opportunities and

direct transportation links, servicing a range of lifestyle needs for

residents of all ages.

Buyer interest extends across all suburbs of Manningham, with a

particular demand for:

— Larger four or five bedroom homes within walking distance to

local schools and transport links

— Prestige homes with luxury features such as home theatres,

swimming pools and tennis courts, priced between $2million

to $3 million

— Medium density townhouses and apartments for the retiring

workforce, empty nesters and student accommodation

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M A N N I N G H A M 3

Demand for residential property will continue throughout Manningham.

1Global liveability of Melbourne

In 2015 Melbourne was named the world’s

most liveable city in The Economist’s Global

Liveability Ranking, for a fifth consecutive

year. The city scored 97.5 out of 100,

based on economic stability, access to

healthcare, cultural diversity, environmental

wellbeing, quality of education and

infrastructure.

Melbourne’s diverse population is estimated

at 4.35 million people, forecast to reach

8 million in 2051. Melbourne residents

come from 180 countries, speak over 233

languages and belong to more than 140

cultures. Immigration from China and India

accounted for 32% of overall population

growth in 2015, making Mandarin the

second most commonly spoken language

in Melbourne.

As overseas migration and foreign

investment interest increases, the real

estate sector is the largest foreign

investment type in Australia today. Foreign

investment approvals for Australian

residential real estate rose 75% to $61

billion in 2015, 36% of which was

accounted for by mainland China.

L O O K I N G A H E A D

As globalisation continues to strengthen the economic and financial integration of countries around the world, Melbourne has become

increasingly attractive for the investment and lifestyle opportunities offered. The world’s most global cities are interconnected, and serve

as local hubs with access to finance, production, trade and distribution of goods and services. The ability to meet these international demands

has become a crucial element that continues to drive population growth and foreign investment in Melbourne’s property market.

97.5100

Innovations in technology and the internet

have made it easier to research, locate and

transact international property, which is

expected to continue throughout 2016

as the Australian dollar remains low and

Melbourne continues to globalise.

International buyers will continue to seek

proximity to elite government and private

schools and drive demand for different

housing types, including apartments for

tertiary students, townhouses for one-child

families and larger homes for extended

families.

China will remain a dominant source of

investment, but interest from other Asian

countries such as India and Indonesia is

expected to increase.

Source: City of Melbourne, FIRB Annual Report 2014-15

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4 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

Australia’s mixed market economy is largely

based on trade, manufacturing, services

and finance. In 2016, moderating global

growth and a slowing Chinese economy

is prompting further transition of the

Australian economy.

Latest forecasts from the Reserve Bank of

Australia (RBA) show economic growth is

expected to remain under 2.5% in 2016,

before a recovery of up to 3% over the next

two years.

This cautious outlook reflects the cooling

of the Chinese economy and has slowed

the demand for Australian exports, such as

primary resources and agricultural produce.

International investment in Australia is now

a significant contributor to the economy

and the outlook into 2017 remains

optimistic. The lower Australian dollar

combined with the sustained low interest

rate environment provides exceptional

value for investors, particularly those

attracted to commercial and residential

property markets.

O V E R S E A S I N V E S T M E N T A N D E C O N O M I C G R O W T H

In Australia, the real estate sector received

the largest portion of foreign investment,

valued at $96.9 billion across residential

and commercial real estate in financial year

2014-15. Residential real estate investment

approvals totalled $60.7 billion, 75% more

than last year.

China was the largest investor in Australian

commercial and residential real estate,

followed by the United States, Singapore,

Malaysia and Korea.

Source: FIRB, Annual Report 2014-15.

2Slowing Australian economy and its

potential impact on real estate

C H I N A$24.36 billion

K O R E A $2.5 billion

M A L A Y S I A $3.46 billion

S I N G A P O R E$3.86 billion

U S A$7.1 billion

M E L B O U R N E M E D I A N

H O U S E P R I C E : $713,000;

8.3% annual increase.

M E L B O U R N E M E D I A N

U N I T P R I C E : $525,000;

4.2% annual increase.

Source: REIV March 2016 Quarter

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M A N N I N G H A M 5

Stable economy

Freehold ownership availability

Sustained low-interest money market

Attractive business opportunities

High-quality lifestyle & clean environment

Proximity to Asia

High-quality & accessible educational

facilities

Relative value for money

D R I V E R S F O R I N T E R N A T I O N A L I N T E R E S TI N T E R N A T I O N A L I N T E R E S T I N M E L B O U R N E P R O P E R T Y I S B E I N G D R I V E N B Y

The swelling population of Victoria is driving the demand for housing, retail, education and the creation of new employment opportunities, particularly in the service and construction industries. As a result, the Victorian economy is less dependent on primary resources, than some other Australian states. Melbourne’s property market continues to attract the attention of Australian and international investors seeking both investment and lifestyle opportunities.

C O N T I N U E D I N T E R E S T I N M E L B O U R N E

L O O K I N G A H E A D

The residential property market is moderating

to a more sustainable level of growth,

following a period of rapid price growth

in many areas. The ongoing demand for

residential property and the low cost of

finance, will see buyer confidence remain

positive throughout 2016.

While there is some debate about the supply

and demand balance for new apartments in

some areas of Melbourne, the demand for

well-located, high-quality residential property

will remain strong.

Melbourne will remain an attractive market

over the next 12 months, with buyers

benefiting from a slight shift away from the

strong ‘seller’s market’ of 2015. Interest

from international investors may moderate

as tighter Foreign Investment Review Board

(FIRB) controls come into play, however

Melbourne will remain highly attractive

to overseas buyers.

C O N C E N T R A T I O N O F O V E R S E A S I N T E R E S T I N M E L B O U R N E CBD

MOUNTWAVERLEY

BLACKBURN

BAYSIDE

ARMADALE

HAWTHORNBALWYN

DONCASTER

Source: Australian Government Department of Employment

31.2%

18.6%

10.0%

13.7%

19.9%

2.7%3.5%

0.4%

Agriculture, foresty & fishing

Finance & insurance

Manufacturing

Mineral exploration & developement

Services

Tourism

Residential real estate

Commercial real estate

Source: FIRB, Annual Report 2014-15.

F O R E I G N I N V E S T M E N T A P P R O V A L S B Y I N D U S T R Y S E C T O R 2 0 1 4 - 1 5

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6 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

B A N K S T A N D A R D V A R I A B L E R A T E ( % )

Melbourne’s price growth has been

steadily increasing over the past three

decades. The median metropolitan house

price in 1985 was $80,200, and is now

$713,000.

D E B T I N C O M E R A T I O ( % )

M E L B O U R N E M E D I A N H O U S E P R I C E ( $ , 0 0 0 )

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Source: RBA 2015, AMP NATSEM Income and Wealth Report December 2015

3Household debt to income ratio

continues to rise

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Declining interest rates, low unemployment

and a strong economy have driven Australians

to take on more debt. The official RBA cash

rate dropped to 1.75% in May 2016.

For most Australians, the mortgage on their

home is the largest debt they will have in

their lifetime, and mortgage interest rates

have fallen from a peak of 16.5% in 1989

to the current level of 5-6%.

Australian households have more debt

compared to the size of the country’s

economy than any other in the world.

The ratio of household debt to disposable

income has almost tripled since 1988, from

64% to 185% in December 2015, reflecting

an annual growth rate of 5.3%, well above

the income growth rate of 1.3%.

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

Source: RBA 2015, AMP NATSEM Income and Wealth Report December 2015 (note: dotted line denotes estimated debt to income ratio)

Source: REIV 2016

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M A N N I N G H A M 7

D E B T L E V E L S I N M A N N I N G H A M

Households with medium to high income

make up the largest proportion of the

population within the city of Manningham.

Older workers and empty nesters comprise

25% of all households, followed by parents

and homebuilders at 20%, and seniors at

12%, which largely reflects the proportion

of home ownership versus rental dwellings

in the area.

16%M A N N I N G H A M

RENTINGOWNED WITH

MORTGAGE

Source: Source: ABS Census 2011, .iD Consulting Pty Ltd

32%

OWNED OUTRIGHT

48%

L O A N S T O I N V E S T O R S

5.1% L O A N S T O O W N E R - O C C U P I E R S

8.3%

H O U S I N G C R E D I T G R O W T H

A N N U A L G R O W T H

A N N U A L G R O W T H

Source: ABS Housing Finance Australia, March 2016, RBA

L O O K I N G A H E A D

From late-2013 to mid-2015, investors

accounted for about 40% of all loan

approvals in Australia, however investor

activity has subsided significantly in 2016.

Mortgage approvals to owner-occupiers

jumped 13.2% to $13.8 billion this year,

which excludes refinancing existing

dwellings. The changing nature of lending

suggests an emerging shift to a more

balanced market with increased owner-

occupier activity.

Australian banks are implementing tighter

lending conditions in response to the

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority

(APRA) review, which imposes stricter loan

to value ratios and criteria for local and

international investors. As a result it is

expected price growth will ease for some

parts of Melbourne’s property market over

the next 12 months.

The current low interest rate environment

is expected to continue throughout 2016,

stimulating the property market with the

low cost of borrowing money to finance the

purchase of dream homes and investment

properties.

However, it is prudent for both investors and

home buyers to take a longer term view, by

planning for rate rises in future years. Every

0.25% increase in interest rates would see

a significant impact on the disposable

income of Australian households.

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8 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

C H I N A’ S R E C E N T R E S T R I C T I O N S F O R F O R E I G N I N V E S T O R S

4Changes to foreign investment

rules and regulations

While Australia has become the second

most popular market for Chinese property

investors after the US, China has recently

introduced new international investment

controls in response to the current

slowdown in economic growth. Designed

to decelerate the level of capital outflow

from the Chinese economy, those wanting

to invest in Australia now need to comply

with new restrictions.

International investment into the Australian housing market has changed the way residential real estate is perceived within the global context.

Demand for Australian housing is driven by the sustained low-interest money market and competitive currency, which has made local real estate

prices relatively cheaper to international investors than to local buyers.

The desire for international investment by a growing middle class in China, Singapore and Malaysia has strengthened the level of capital

investment into Australia, prompting a review of Australia’s foreign investment framework.

The latest annual report of Australia’s FIRB

shows Chinese were the largest investors in

2015, with approved real estate investment

worth $24 billion. In response to the falling

yuan and prevention of capital outflow, the

Chinese government has limited individuals

to moving the equivalent of US$50,000 out

of the country each year.

C H A N G E S T O F O R E I G N I N V E S T M E N T F R A M E W O R K

The Australian Government has also

recently introduced changes to Australia’s

foreign investment framework to restore

the enforcement and compliance of laws

that govern foreign investment into local

real estate.

¥¥

¥

M E L B O U R N EV I C T O R I A

Source: FIRB 2016

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M A N N I N G H A M 9

L O O K I N G A H E A D

Source: FIRB Annual Report 2014-15.

As Melbourne’s property market moderates

and the Chinese economy slows, international

investment in Australia is likely to decelerate

as offshore buyers become more cautious of

increased regulations and reforms.

APPLICATION FEES , STRICTER PENALTIES AND INCREASED REGUL ATION

Current laws encourage foreign investors

to buy homes before they are built,

generating new housing supply. In support

of this, foreign investors are required to

apply to the FIRB prior to expressing an

interest to purchase residential property.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has

also implemented a more thorough review

process to ensure the appropriate fees are

paid before applications are processed.

10% NON-F INAL WITHHOLDING TAX PAYMENT FOR $2M+ PROPERT Y SALES

The Australian government has introduced

a 10% non-final withholding tax, which will

be applied to foreign residents who sell

land, buildings, residential and commercial

property in excess of $2 million. The tax

will come into effect from 1 July 2016,

after which point 10% of a sale price will be

withheld and paid to the ATO.

ADDITIONAL STAMP DUT Y FOR FOREIGN BUYERS TO INCREASE TO 7%

When property is purchased or acquired

in Victoria, land transfer duty, otherwise

known as stamp duty, must be paid.

Foreign investors who purchase or acquire

residential property are currently required

to pay an additional duty of 3%, which will

increase to 7% for purchases made on or

after 1 July 2016.

$

Source: ATO Fact Sheet 2015, FIRB Tax Conditions, State Revenue Office May 2016

$5.41 billion

Approved for new dwellings

$4.71 billion

Approved for existing properties

$0.84 billion

Approved for redevelopment

$1.26 billion

Approved for vacant land

$12.85 billion

Approved for development

FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPROVAL FOR VICTORIAN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

IN FINANCIAL YEAR 2014-15

International investment remains an

important element of the Australian

economy, and it is expected that the lower

Australian dollar in conjunction with the

low cash rate will support commercial and

residential property markets into 2017.

Melbourne will continue to offer attractive

opportunities for investors.

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10 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

59% of Melbourne’s population growth in

the last decade has come from overseas

migration, and 39% of households in the

city of Manningham speak a language other

than English, with Cantonese, Greek and

Mandarin comprising the top three.

39%

Source: ABS Census 2011, City of Melbourne, iD Consulting Pty Ltd

Melbourne’s population is expected to rise

to 8 million by 2051, stimulating significant

urban renewal within the inner city and

middle-ring suburbs.

Investment in Melbourne’s rail system is

a crucial development as living density

increases. Trips on metro trains are

expected to double to 1.5 million every

weekday by 2031.

Housing density across Manningham is

changing in line with current and forecast

population growth.

In the inner suburbs, demand for higher-

density living is adding many new high-rise

apartment blocks to the skyline. In the

middle suburbs, medium-density living is

gradually replacing the traditional quarter-

acre block, particularly near transport and

retail hubs.

In addition, urban renewal is taking place

across many of Melbourne’s inner suburbs,

leading to increased gentrification of

suburbs previously used as industrial or

commercial spaces.

8m

5Our evolving city

O U R C H A N G I N G C I T Y

1.5m

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M A N N I N G H A M 11

Manningham fast facts

Couples with children make up the largest proportion of households in Manningham at 39%.

There are 63 primary and secondary schools in the eastern suburbs, and 41,000 students live in the area.

Doncaster is forecast for the greatest increase in residential developments over the next 10 years.

Source: ABS Census 2011,

.iD Consulting Pty Ltd

L O C A L P R O J E C T S O N T H E H O R I Z O N

The Doncaster Hill vision is to create a

mixed use sustainable urban village with

a community focused lifestyle. The 20

year strategy plans to attract 4,000 new

residential apartments and 5 million extra

visitors a year. Centred on the intersection

of Doncaster Road and Williamsons/Tram

Road in Doncaster, Doncaster Hill is set to

be the civic heart of Manningham.

The value of building approvals within the

city of Manningham was $437 million in the

financial year to date, and the number of

residential dwellings is expected to increase

by an average of 452 dwellings per year.

Land owned by Manningham Council

at 2-10 Montgomery Street, Doncaster

East is set to be transformed by a high

quality residential development, alongside

improved public open space, car parking

and a new purpose built preschool facility.

Source: City of Manningham, .iD Consulting Pty Ltd

Source: City of Manningham

L O O K I N G A H E A D

There will be an increased desire by

residents to access local services and

amenities by walking or cycling, rather than

the ‘highway life,’ which requires a strong

reliance on cars and parking.

With higher density and less indoor space,

the demand for local amenities, public

recreation space and parkland will increase.

Shared spaces will not only be in the

outdoor public places. New high-density

apartments will increasingly provide shared

recreation spaces, including BBQ areas,

gyms and swimming pools.

Commuters will look to alternate methods

of transport to access their places of

employment, and the demand for shorter

commute times will continue to grow.

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12 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

Manningham snapshot

M A N N I N G H A M

Source: REIV PDOL, Market Share 01 June 2015 - 31 May 2016

M A N N I N G H A M M A R K E T S H A R E Expressed as a percentage of total residential sales in Manningham June 2015 to May 2016

T O P F I V E S U B U R B S B Y P R I C E G R O W T HGrowth by % increase in median price over the past 12 months

Source: Source: REIV PDOL Annualised Median House Price May 2015/2016

M A N N I N G H A M

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Templestowe

Templestowe Lower

Doncaster

Doncaster East

Donvale

+28.8%

+25.7%

+25.6%

+24.1%

+23.8%

Median May 2015Median May 2016

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

Templestowe

Templestowe Lower

Doncaster

Doncaster East

Donvale

+23.8%

+28.8%

+25.7%

+25.6%

+24.1%

$ 902,500

$1,162,500

$1,160,000

$923,000

$1,010,000

$1,269,000

$856,000

$1,062,500

$1,325,000

$1,070,000

$ 902,500

$1,162,500

$1,160,000

$923,000

$1,010,000

$1,269,000

$856,000

$1,062,500

$1,325,000

$1,070,000

18%

17%

9%

8%

7%

M A R K E T S H A R E G R O W T HGrowth by % increase in market over the past 12 months

JELLIS CRAIG GROWTH +29%

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M A N N I N G H A M 13

S U B U R B S B Y J E L L I S C R A I G C U R R E N T M E D I A N H O U S E P R I C E ( $ , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 )

Warrandyte

$1,450,000Templestowe

$1,390,000 Park Orchards

$1,300,000Doncaster

$1,220,000

Doncaster East

$1,180,000Templestowe Lower

$1,030,000Bulleen

$1,020,000Donvale

$930,000

Source: REIV Annualised Median House Price March 2016

T H E J E L L I S C R A I G F O U N D A T I O N

$ $ $ $

$ $ $ $

$522,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

F U N D S R A I S E D S I N C E I N C E P T I O N November 2013 - March 2016

A dedication to active community service is central to the culture at Jellis Craig, and this commitment was formalised via the establishment of the Jellis Craig Foundation as a registered charity. The Foundation’s reach has been felt far and wide, changing the lives of many, from children in Asia to local community groups.

The Foundation has raised over $522,000 for its key charity partners since inception.

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14 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

E X C E P T I O N A L P R O P E R T Y S A L E S

15 Hillside Road, BULLEEN

4 Angelo Place, WONGA PARK

95 Bourke Street, BULLEEN

7 Bembooka Court, DONCASTER

8A Kanooka Ave, TEMPLESTOWE LOWER

20 Powers Street, DONVALE

23 Innisfallen Avenue, TEMPLESTOWE

7 Selwyn Court, TEMPLESTOWE

2 Daniel Court, PARK ORCHARDS

SOLD SOLD SOLD$1,025,000 $1,070,000 $1,100,000

SOLD SOLD SOLD$1,180,000 $1,150,000 $1,165,000

SOLD SOLD SOLD$1,195,000 $1,250,000 $1,250,000

1/2 Marshall Avenue, DONCASTER 90 Melissa Street, DONVALE 388 Yarra Road, WONGA PARK SOLD SOLD SOLD$1,300,000 $1,340,000 $1,360,000

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M A N N I N G H A M 15

2 Pushkin Court, DONCASTER EAST

18-20 Daintree Ave, PARK ORCHARDS

9 Wensley Court, TEMPLESTOWE

126-132 Knees Rd, PARK ORCHARDS

6 Malei Court, TEMPLESTOWE

1 Golf Links Court, DONCASTER

76-78 McGowans Road, DONVALE

5 Fadaro Cres, WARRANDYTE SOUTH 8 Jamieson Road, WONGA PARK

5 Glendora Lane, DONCASTER EAST

6 Lautrec Court, DONCASTER EAST

5 Monckton Road, TEMPLESTOWE

SOLD SOLD SOLD$1,410,000 $1,510,000 $1,520,000

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

$1,670,000

$1,930,000

$2,650,000

$1,680,000

$1,955,000

$2,810,000

$1,750,000

$2,398,000

$6,100,000

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16 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

E X C E P T I O N A L P R O P E R T Y S A L E S

38 Rocklea Road, BULLEEN

5 Chapel Court, DONCASTER

409/5 Sovereign Point Ct, DONCASTER

1A/56 St Clems Rd, DONCASTER EAST

129 High Street, DONCASTER

19 Marianne Way, DONCASTER

5 Wittig Street, DONCASTER

6/1 3 Niagara Road, DONVALE

3/283 George Street, DONCASTER

7 Botanic Drive, DONCASTER

1/3 Milan Street, DONCASTER EAST

3/18 20 Leslie Street, DONVALE

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

$1,445,000 $1,525,000 $1,385,000

$1,750,000 $1,650,000 $1,810,000

$1,540,000 $2,205,000 $770,000

$710,000 $750,000 $762,500

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M A N N I N G H A M 17

42-44 Frogmore Cres, PARK ORCHARDS

1/67 Wood Street, TEMPLESTOWE

8 Eumeralla Ave, TEMPLESTOWE LOWER

42-56 Gold Memorial Rd, WARRANDYTE

166-168 Serpells Rd, TEMPLESTOWE

8a Leura Street DONCASTER EAST

3/51 John St, TEMPLESTOWE LOWER

13 Barooga Drive, WONGA PARK 55-57 Dudley Road, WONGA PARK

240 Williamsons Road, TEMPLESTOWE

26 Ashford St, TEMPLESTOWE LOWER

16 Amersham Drive, WARRANDYTE

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

SOLD

$1,430,000 $3,660,000 $2,800,000

$1,150,000

$1,950,000

$1,500,000

$690,000

$828,888

$1,850,000

$1,800,000

$1,720,000

$1,700,000

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16 T H E J E L L I S C R A I G R E P O R T

‘The Report’ has been prepared by Jellis Craig in good faith, as a general guide to the performance and outlook for particular areas of the Melbourne real estate market. The data and information provided in ‘The Report’ is provided by third parties for information purposes only and does not constitute advice or recommendations. It does not intend to predict future performance of particular suburbs, areas, properties or property types. You should consider your personal circumstances and obtain independent professional advice before making

any financial or investment decisions.

jelliscraig.com.au