Migration and the economic crisis: response of Brits at home and abroad Sheffield University23rd September 2013

The relationship between economic conditions and British

emigration from the UK

Home Office Research report, Emigration from the UK,published in 2012, sets outs key aspects of the scale and nature of long term emigration from the UK over the last 20 years.

This presentation sets out the key findings from the research focusing on the relationship between economic conditions, in the UK and receiving countries, and British emigration from the UK.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/emigration-from-the-uk

Overview

Outline

Net migration and levels of emigration Why do British citizens leave the UK Where do British citizens go UK Economic conditions The Emigration decision Unemployment rates GDP growth Exchange rates Differential impacts

Emigration increased in the last decade, falling since 2009

Net migration: all nationalities

British emigration fell to a low of 128,000 in 2010

Net migration: British citizens

Around half of all British citizens leaving the UK do so for work related reasons

‘Professional and managerial’ is the largest previous occupation group for British emigrants

Australia is the top British emigration destination

UK in period of limited economic growth

The UK experienced a sustained recession between spring 2008 and Summer 2009, and economic growth has been limited since then.

There are a number of variables that may indicate an ‘economic crisis’, including:

- Rising unemployment- Negative GDP growth- Low/Weak exchange rates

Home Office research explored whether British emigration from the UK is influenced by these 3 variables. The slides that follow attempt to explore these relationships. It should be seen as descriptive analysis only (as data quality did not permit full statistical analysis).

Economic conditions affect the decision to emigrate in different ways.

Emigration Decision

Capacity Incentive

Economic conditions

UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration

19751977

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Unemployment rates (ONS) Emigration (British Citizens)

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Spain and UK unemployment inversely associated with British emigration to the EU15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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British emigration to EU15 Spain unemployment UK unemployment

Germany unemployment France unemployment

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UK unemployment inversely related to British emigration to Australia

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British emigration to Australia Australia unemployment UK unemployment

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US and UK unemployment not related to British Emigration to the US

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Brit Emigration to USA US Unemployment UK unemployment

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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-6.0

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British emigration to EU15 Spain growth UK growth

France growth

Emig

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00s)

GD

P gr

owth

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%

GDP growth related to British Emigration to EU15

20002001

20022003

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20062007

20082009

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Brit Emigration to AUS GDP growth AUS GDP growth UK

Emig

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00s)

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owth

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GDP growth not related to British Emigration to Australia

GDP growth and British Emigration to the US

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

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British emigration to US GDP growth US GDP growth UK

Emig

ratio

n (0

00s)

GD

P gr

owth

rate

(%)

Relative exchange rates associated with British emigration from the UK.

Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

75

95

115

135

155

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195

215

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1.2

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1.6

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British Emigration GBP/EUR GBP/USD GBP/AUS

Em

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(000

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Exc

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e ra

te

This presentations sets out the findings relating to British Citizens, however different nationalities are likely to be influenced by economic conditions in different ways:

EU15 return emigration: inverse relationship UK/EURO exchange rate in recent years.

EU8 emigration from UK: strong relationship UK/EU8 unemployment and GDP/Zloty exchange rate

Non-EU emigration from the UK: flows not as responsive to short run changes in economic conditions.

Different economic conditions will effect different groups of migrants in different ways

Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways Flows of those leaving the UK for work related reasons may

be expected to fall during an economic downturn due to the impact on capacity to emigrate. Additionally if unemployment levels in destination countries high, incentive may also be reduced.

The incentive for Students to emigrate may increase during an economic downturn, whilst capacity may be limited.

Those retiring abroad, may lack capacity during an economic downturn. Relative exchange rates may also negatively impact upon the value of savings and therefore reduce incentive

Those emigrating to accompany/join family members, are less likely to be driven by national economic conditions.

Economic conditions will influence different groups of emigrants in different ways

– Unemployment rates:• UK unemployment appears to be associated with emigration levels

for British citizens, particularly to Spain and other EU15 countries. – GDP growth

• The general strength of the receiving economies might be of limited importance and other drivers such as family networks or migration policy may have a stronger influence on emigration, at least within the EU.

• For outflows of British nationals to Australia and the US there appears to be no clear relationship between GDP growth and emigration

– Exchange rates • Data from 2000 to 2010 suggest that sustained falls in British

emigration since 2007 have been mirrored by the depreciation of the pound against the Australian dollar, the Euro and the US dollar.

• Difficult to explore further due to IPS sample sizes.

Key points