The Rechargeable Battery Market and 21 Septembre 2016 Main ... · 2010 2015 2020 Number of EV sold...

The Rechargeable Battery Market andMain Trends 2015-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

Enjeux de l’Electromobilité

21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline

• The rechargeable battery market in 2015

• The Li-ion battery value chain

• Forecasts & conclusions

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTSHEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er

of

EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

2

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mil

lio

n H

EV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)

AAB (2008)

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

3

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2015

Mil

lio

n U

nit

s/

yea

r

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

165 M

Portable

PCs

207 M

Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2015

Mil

lio

n U

nit

s/Y

ea

r

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2000 2015

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Y

ea

r

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2015$

/Wh

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

4

2015: EstimationsSource: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

MW

h

Others (Flow battery,

NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investmentsLead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

5

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016 2015: Estimations

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bil

lio

n U

S $

Others (Flow

battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

65 BILLION US$ in 2015 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2015)

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bil

lio

n U

S$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator

Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen

concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2015: Estimations

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

LI-ION IN 2015MAIN APPLICATIONS

7

(1) Cell level

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

5 600 M cells – 60 000 MWh 16 700 M$ (1)

CAGR 2005/2015+22 % per year in Volume

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,

ESS

Auto, E-bus

China

Auto, e-bus

Excl. China

Electronic

devices

Phones

17%

Portable PC

66%

Portable

Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2015: 60 GWh

Electronic

devices

50%

Auto, E-bus

Excl. China

15%

Auto, E-bus

China

16%

Industrial, ESS

8%

Others

11%

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

LI-ION IN 2015MAIN APPLICATIONS

CAGR 2005/2015+22 % per year in VolumeCell: +15% per year in valuePack: +10% per year in value

8

5 600 M cells – +60 000 MWh 16 700 M$ (cell level)


-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M$

Li-ion cells

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,

ESS

Auto, E-bus

China

Auto, e-bus

Excl. China

Electronic

devices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M$

Li-ion Packs



Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS2015-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book

Cellular Phones, Smart-phones

Tablets

Camcorders

Cordless Tools, Gardening tools

Digital Camera

Games, MP3

Cordless Phones

Shavers, Toothbrush,

RC Cars

E-bikes

Power tools

Security lighting

Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV

Industrial motive (forklift)

Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)

Medical

Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

9

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume,

weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each

Chemistry, each form factor,

2013 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C)

10

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ell

s/y

ea

r

Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference

Slide p 4

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 15-25: + 6%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

MW

h

Otherr Portable

Electronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

11

HEV, P-HEV & EVDEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV

MARKET

EV25 kWh

HEV0.6-2 kWh

batteries

MICRO

HEV*

MILD

HEV

MEDIUM

HEV

FULL

HEV

P HEV10 kWh

batteries

CITROEN C2, C3

BMW 3Series

Fiat 500

Hyundai i10

Hyudai i30

Kia

Smart for2

Toyota Yaris

Toyota Auris

VW Passat

…..

GM Saturn Vue

GM AURA

GM MALIBU

HONDA

ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC

INSIGHT

MERCEDES

S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPE

FORD FUSION

MILAN

GM YUKON

GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 20151,8 M HEVHEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2015

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2015

12Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Mil

lio

nTOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Pe

ne

tra

tio

n o

f h

yb

rid

s

in t

he

glo

ba

le s

ale

s

Growth 2014-2015: -3%

From 1,9 M to 1,8 M HEV

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Ga

soli

ne

US

$ /

Ga

llo

n

HE

V s

ale

s p

er

ye

ar

(US

)

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

13

Others: Smart (3400), Fiat (4500), Bollore (1200), PSA (2700), GM

(2700), Daimler (4500),

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2015 (YEARLY)

+48%+48%

++61%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

P-HEV sales

Others

Others China

SAIC

BYD

AUDI

Volvo

Mitsubishi

VW

Ford

Toyota

GM Volt,

Ampera

US

18%

JAPAN

5%

EUROPE

37%

CHINA

34%

Others

6%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

EV sales

Others

Other China

JMC

CHERY

JAC

Geely

BAIC

Zotye

Kandi

BYD

KIA

VW

BMW

Honda

Toyota

Tesla

Renault

Ford

MITSUBISHI

NISSAN

US

20%

JAPAN

5%

EUROPE

29%

CHINA

41%

OTHERS

5%

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

14

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-201510-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

0 2000 4000 6000

PANASONIC

NISSAN Motor US

Sony

BYD

LG Chem

JCI

A123

Sanyo

Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)

Dow Kokam

GS YUASA

SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

Lithium Energy Japan

Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem

Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba

Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)

Lishen

BAK

SAFT US

SAFT

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon

NEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.

SK Energy

Panasonic EV

LiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)

BYD (2013 - 2015)

ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average 2012-2014

Investments:

250 $ / kWh

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

2014 – 2017

TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments:

150 $ / kWh

TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

SAFETY ISSUES

15

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further

development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High

chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the

charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The

growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled

their projectsBac

kgro

un

dM

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte.In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

veA

ircr

aft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety

concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode

(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a

crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)

(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company

without any authorisation by Toyota)


Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

16

Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues


Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago).

So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

17

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY

18Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

LI-ION BATTERY COST2015-2025LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

19

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only

2020 20252015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ce

ll

Pa

ck

Ce

ll

Pa

ck

Ce

ll

Pa

ck

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

Cell

Manufacturing

Other Materials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kW

hMargin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Scraps

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)


Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

HEV FORECASTS2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

HE

V p

en

etr

ati

on

(% o

f to

tal c

ar

sale

s)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 2015 – 2,5 M in 2020 – 3,2 M in 2025

20

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

lio

nUSA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

1,8

2,5

3,20,17

0,4

0,65

0,35

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

lio

n c

ars

EV

P-HEV

HEV

2013 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025

2016 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025

21

Thanks to very high incentives, China will change the game

0,9

1,8

2,53,1

0,16

0,38

0,62

0,27

0,75

1,10,5

1

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

lio

n c

ars

EV in China

P-HEV in China

HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

XEV BATTERY DEMAND2025 FORECASTS

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)CAGR 2015-2025: +21%

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$)CAGR 2015-2025: +14%

22

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV

PHEV EV

EV & PHEV China E-bus China

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

12-48 volt SLIHEVP-HEVEV, E-BusEV, PHEV & E-Bus China

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020Micro-hybrids car market2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV

23

Powered by Advanced lead acid

batteries

Much more profitable than full

HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive

than full HEV to save 5% gasoline

instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

Optimistic

Scenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead

acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle

sold per year in

2020

35 3.5

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES

24

Sta

nd

ard

Lea

da

cid

Ba

tterie

s

2010

2015

2020

AFTER

Li-ion

ba

tterie

s

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5%EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

van

ced

Lea

d a

cid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERYLi-Air, Li-S, Fuel CellsLi-ion

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

25



From 60 GWh in 2015 to 215 GWh (1)

CAGR 2015/2025+15 % per year in Volume

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,

ESS

Auto, E-bus

China

Auto, e-bus

Excl. China

Electronic

devices

2015: 60 GWh

2025: 215 GWh

Electronic

devices

50%

Auto, E-bus

Excl. China

15%

Auto, E-bus

China

16%

Industrial, ESS

8%

Others

11%

Electronic

devices

26%

Auto, E-bus

Excl. China

19%

Auto, E-bus

China

37%

Industrial, ESS

9%Others

9%

11%

16%

24%

16%

6%

CAGR 15/25

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTSCAGR 2015/2025 +15 % per year in VolumeCell: +9% per year in valuePack: +8% per year in value

26Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M$

Li-ion cells


Others

Industrial,

ESS

Auto, E-bus

China

Auto, e-bus

Excl. China

Electronic

devices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M$

Li-ion Packs



Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

TAKEAWAYS

27

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS,

Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 8 B$ market in 2015 - 21 B$ in 2020 & 27 B$ in 2025 with high growth un China

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2-3%% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years

Energy storage will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 to 10 years and could become a huge market if the Li-ion battery cost system < 150$/kWh.

Battery Market 2015-2025CAGR = +5%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2000 2010 2015 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-9%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+13,5%) LIB for Others* (+8%)Others (+15%)

25 B$29B$

64 B$

88 B$

> 105 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

9

10

52

(CAGR 2015-2025)

27

(Pack level)4,3

40B$

427 GWh

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

28

Back-up slides

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2015Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investmentsLead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

30


Lead Acid Batteries+360 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion

60%

35%5%

SLI

Industry, ESS

Others

24%

22%

12%

40%2%

Telecom

UPS

Other

Stationary, ESS

Forklift

Other motive

Industrial Batteries60 GWh for US $ 13 Billion

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

MW

h

Others (Flow

battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

% In value

% In value

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2015: US $ 65 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

ESS

#REF!

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

31

Battery market in 2015 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

ESS

#REF!

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ > 21

Billion for

“other”

applications

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

ESS SEGMENTATION

32

Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS)

Regulation

Arbitrage Investment deferral

Grid independent power supply

• Reconcile momentary differences caused by fluctuations in generation and/ or loads– Frequency regulation– Voltage support– Load following/ ramping support– Power quality

Back-up and reserves

• Provide emergency power when utility power is not available– UPS (Uninterruptible power

supply)– Power continuity– Reserves to face lose of one

generator

Black start• Provide an active reserve of power

and energy to (re)start power generator

• Store energy when the price of electricity is low and releases it on the grid when prices are high

• Enable deferral of utility investments by using relatively small amounts of storage– Congestion relief– Avoid infrastructure investment

• Provide electricity power supply in an area not connected to the grid e.g.– Rural community– Based stations powered by

Solar energy

On grid services

Off grid services

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]


21 Septembre 2016

ENSAM Paris, France

ESS SEGMENTATION

33

The Rechargeable Battery Market and 21 Septembre 2016 Main ... · 2010 2015 2020 Number of EV sold...

Documents

Transcript of The Rechargeable Battery Market and 21 Septembre 2016 Main ... · 2010 2015 2020 Number of EV sold...