The Reanalysis of Three The Reanalysis of Three Catastrophic Hurricanes that Catastrophic Hurricanes that

Impacted Florida During Impacted Florida During the 1920’sthe 1920’s

The Reanalysis of Three The Reanalysis of Three Catastrophic Hurricanes that Catastrophic Hurricanes that

Impacted Florida During Impacted Florida During the 1920’sthe 1920’s

Steve Feuer, Chris Landsea, Jamese Sims,

and Lenworth Woolcock

NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

Miami, Florida

Acknowledgements: NOAA/OGP grant (GC02-093)

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• • Background on the HURDAT reanalysis projectBackground on the HURDAT reanalysis project

• • Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane seasonReanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season

• • Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s:Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s:

► ► 1921 Tampa Bay 1921 Tampa Bay

► ► 1926 Great Miami1926 Great Miami

► ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe)

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• • Background on the HURDAT reanalysis projectBackground on the HURDAT reanalysis project

• • Reanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane seasonReanalysis of 1921 Atlantic basin hurricane season

• • Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s:Examination of 3 major hurricanes to strike FL in the 1920’s:

► ► 1921 Tampa Bay 1921 Tampa Bay

► ► 1926 Great Miami1926 Great Miami

► ► 1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe1928 Okeechobee (a.k.a. San Felipe)

HURDAT REANALYSIS PROJECTHURDAT REANALYSIS PROJECTHURDAT REANALYSIS PROJECTHURDAT REANALYSIS PROJECT Goal is to improve the quality of the National Hurricane

Center’s (NHC) original North Atlantic best track and intensity database (HURDAT) from 1851 to the present.

By employing consistent analysis methods and modern interpretations, the project is helping to:– correct several errors and biases– determine better landfall attributes– provide additional track and intensity datafor TCs in the database (Landsea et al. 2002).

Previously unknown TCs are also identified after thorough inspection of historical meteorological records and accounts and are considered as candidate storms to be added to HURDAT.

Recommended changes are submitted to the NHC Best Track Change Committee for approval.

provide meteorological community, emergency managers, engineers, and government officials with a high-quality historical database of TC track and intensity data every 6 hours

aid in development and verification of operational forecasts and models

document climate studies, such as long-term trends (e.g., global warming), multidecadal activity, seasonal forecasts, etc.

set building code standards and insurance rates for coastal communities

provide an understanding of TC variability

Applications of HURDATApplications of HURDATApplications of HURDATApplications of HURDAT

Data Sources for the Reanalysis of the 1920’sData Sources for the Reanalysis of the 1920’sData Sources for the Reanalysis of the 1920’sData Sources for the Reanalysis of the 1920’s

PRIMARY marine and land station observations from the Historical

Weather Map series ship observations included in COADS individual surface station records (Original Monthly Records) archived ship reports and logs from NCDC articles and records published in Monthly Weather Review

SUPPLEMENTARY books with historical retrospectives technical memoranda journalistic accounts

Historical Weather Map SeriesHistorical Weather Map SeriesHistorical Weather Map SeriesHistorical Weather Map Series

12 UTC25 October

1921

12 UTC25 October

1921

Using ShipUsing ShipObservations Observations

totoEstimate theEstimate theHurricane’sHurricane’s

LocationLocation

Using ShipUsing ShipObservations Observations

totoEstimate theEstimate theHurricane’sHurricane’s

LocationLocation

Beaufort Knots Description Number

0 < 1 Calm 1 1-3 Light air 2 4-6 Light breeze 3 7-10 Gentle breeze 4 11-16 Moderate breeze 5 17-21 Fresh breeze 6 22-27 Strong breeze 7 28-33 Near gale 8 34-40 Gale 9 41-47 Strong gale 10 48-55 Storm 11 56-63 Violent storm 12 > 63 Hurricane

The Beaufort ScaleThe Beaufort ScaleThe Beaufort ScaleThe Beaufort Scale

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity ScaleThe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity ScaleThe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity ScaleThe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale

Category Wind Speed (knots)

1 64-82

2 83-95

3 96-113

4 114-135

5 135+

1) GLFMEX Vmax(kt) = 10.627*(1013-p)**0.5640 n = 664; r = 0.991

2) <25N Vmax(kt) = 12.016*(1013-p)**0.5337 n =1033; r = 0.994

3) 25-35N Vmax(kt) = 14.172*(1013-p)**0.4778 n = 922; r = 0.996

4) 35-45N Vmax(kt) = 16.086*(1013-p)**0.4333 n = 492; r = 0.974

5) For Kraft Vmax(kt) = 14.000*(1013-p)**0.5000 n = 13; r = ??

P(MB) GLFMEX <25N 25-35N 35-45N KRAFT P(MB) P(IN)

Estimating the Central Pressure:(Pr – Pc) / (Pe – Pc) = exp(-RMW/R)

Atlantic Pressure-Wind RelationshipsAtlantic Pressure-Wind RelationshipsAtlantic Pressure-Wind RelationshipsAtlantic Pressure-Wind Relationships

960 100 100 94 90 102 960 28.35

(Picture from: "Florida's Hurricane History", by Jay Barnes)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

HURDAT Reanalysis StatusHURDAT Reanalysis StatusHURDAT Reanalysis StatusHURDAT Reanalysis Status

1911 through 1914 reanalysis submitted to NHC remainder of 1910’s, 1920’s and 1930’s currently being

reanalyzed pre-reconnaissance era completed by summer 2005

1921 HURRICANE SEASON (REVISED)1921 HURRICANE SEASON (REVISED)1921 HURRICANE SEASON (REVISED)1921 HURRICANE SEASON (REVISED)Storm #Storm # DatesDates Original Peak

IntensityOriginal Peak

IntensityRevised Peak

IntensityRevised Peak

IntensityTrack

RevisionsTrack

RevisionsIntensity RevisionsIntensity Revisions

Significant Storm History RevisionsSignificant Storm History Revisions

11 Jun. 16-26

Jun. 16-26

85 kt/Cat. 285 kt/Cat. 2 80 kt/Cat. 180 kt/Cat. 1 MajorMajor MajorMajor Genesis delayed 1 dayGenesis delayed 1 day

22 Sep. 4-8Sep. 4-8 70 kt/Cat. 170 kt/Cat. 1 70 kt/Cat. 170 kt/Cat. 1 MajorMajor MajorMajor Genesis 2 days earlierGenesis 2 days earlier

33 Sep. 6-17Sep. 6-17 105 kt/Cat. 3105 kt/Cat. 3 100 kt/Cat. 3100 kt/Cat. 3 MajorMajor MajorMajor Genesis 2 days earlierET additional day

Genesis 2 days earlierET additional day

44 Sep. 8-14Sep. 8-14 60 kt/TS60 kt/TS 80 kt/Cat. 180 kt/Cat. 1 MajorMajor MajorMajor Genesis 2 days earlier Genesis 2 days earlier

55 Sep. 9-13Sep. 9-13 ------------------------ 55 kt/TS55 kt/TS ---------------- ---------------- New TC (from front)New TC (from front)

66 Oct. 15-24

Oct. 15-24

50 kt/TS50 kt/TS 60 kt/TS60 kt/TS MajorMajor MajorMajor Genesis 1 day earlyGenesis 1 day early

7 -Tampa

Bay

7 -Tampa

Bay

Oct. 20-30

Oct. 20-30

120 kt/Cat 4120 kt/Cat 4 120 kt/Cat. 4120 kt/Cat. 4 MinorMinor MajorMajor ET delayed by 2 daysET delayed by 2 days

Storm # Dates Original Peak Intensity

Revised Peak Intensity

Track Revisions

Intensity Revisions

Significant Storm History Revisions

1 16-26 Jun.

85 kt/Cat. 2 80 kt/Cat. 1 Major Major Genesis delayed 1 day

2 4-8Sep.

70 kt/Cat. 1 70 kt/Cat. 1 Major Major Genesis 2 days earlier

3 6-17Sep.

105 kt/Cat. 3 100 kt/Cat. 3 Major Major Genesis 2 days earlierET additional day

4 8-14Sep.

60 kt/TS 80 kt/Cat. 1 Major Major Genesis 2 days earlier

5 9-13Sep.

------------ 55 kt/TS -------- -------- New TC (from front)

6 15-24Oct.

50 kt/TS 60 kt/TS Major Major Genesis 1 day early

7 -Tampa

Bay

20-30Oct.

120 kt/Cat 4 120 kt/Cat. 4 Minor Major ET delayed by 2 days

#/Date Time Lat. Lon. Max. S-S RMW Cent. Envir. Rad. States/Areas

Wind Cat. Press. Press. OCI Affected 1-6/22/1921 1800Z 28.6N 95.9W 80kt 1 17nmi 980mb 1011mb 215nmi BTX1,CTX1

7-10/25/1921 2000Z 27.9N 82.8W 110kt 3 18nmi 952mb 1009mb 375nmi BFL3,AFL2,DFL1

1921 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes1921 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes1921 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes1921 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes

1921 TAMPA BAY HURRICANE1921 TAMPA BAY HURRICANE1921 TAMPA BAY HURRICANE1921 TAMPA BAY HURRICANE formed as TD on 20 October in vicinity of persistent

surface trough in the SW Caribbean intensified into a hurricane early on the 22nd as it

tracked steadily NNW around the western periphery of a large anticyclone

reached peak intensity of a Category 4 on the 23rd and then began to turn to the north as ridge over SE U.S. started to weaken

turned to the NNE and then NE and weakened slightly to a high-end Category 3 storm before making landfall at Tarpon Springs during the afternoon on the 25th

crossed central FL and moved offshore at Ponce de Leon Inlet early on the 26th as a substantially weaker Category 1 storm

moved to the east then to the ENE during the next three days, weakened to a TS, and was absorbed by a large extratropical system on the 30th

Impacts of 1921 Tampa Bay HurricaneImpacts of 1921 Tampa Bay HurricaneImpacts of 1921 Tampa Bay HurricaneImpacts of 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane worst hurricane to affect Tampa Bay region in 70 years damage mainly from high storm surge and both coastal

and inland flooding storm tide of 3.2 m (10.5 ft.) reported in Tampa on the

25th, which was the highest since the flood of 1848 Tampa U.S. Weather Bureau office reported over 215 mm

(8.5 in.) nearly continuously from the 23rd-26th $3M losses from structural damage to residences,

commercial buildings, ships, ports, marinas, piers, bridges, agricultural interests, citrus crops, and public infrastructure and property

total number of fatalities is at least eight deaths hurricane likely to cause around $4B in damage today due

to vastly increased population and development

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane

Day OBS PRES WIND DIR TEMP SST LOCATION LAT LON SOURCE

1921 STORM 7 (w as #6) (OCTOBER)22-Oct ~20Z 70 SW SWAN IS. 175 842 MWR23-Oct ~22Z 941 EYE SHIP 275 856 MWR "VIRGINIA"24-Oct 8Z 959 70 E SHIP 240 852 MWR "BALTIC"25-Oct 0Z 987 70 E 80 SHIP-"EL ESTERO" 256 844 COA US03342025-Oct 1Z ~90 SE SHIP-"EL ESTERO" 256 844 MWR US03342025-Oct 3Z 943 0 EYE SHIP-"EL ESTERO" 256 844 MWR MIN PRESS25-Oct 1130Z 982 70 E 72 SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 1215Z STORM TIDE 5'4" BOCA GRANDE 268 823 MWR25-Oct 13Z 979 70 E 72 SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 1520Z 958 0 EYE SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 1550Z 958 70 W 72 SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 1630Z 959 70 W SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 17Z 962 70 W 72 SHIP 276 832 MWR "TRUXILLO"25-Oct 19Z STORM TIDE 10.5' TAMPA 280 825 MWR25-Oct 19Z STORM TIDE 8'5" ST. PETE 278 826 MWR25-Oct 19Z 960 DUNEDIN 279 827 CLINE MIN PRESS25-Oct 19Z 965 SAFETY HARBOR 280 827 CLINE MIN PRESS25-Oct 1918Z 59 S TAMPA 280 825 MWR MAX WIND25-Oct 1930Z 958 TARPON SPRINGS 281 827 CLINE MIN PRESS25-Oct 1940-2040Z 952 TARPON SPRINGS 281 827 MWR MIN PRESS25-Oct 1940Z 0 TARPON SPRINGS 281 827 CLINE EYE25-Oct 1945Z 976 47 S 76 TAMPA 280 825 MWR MIN PRESS25-Oct 20Z STORM TIDE 7' PUNTA GORDA 269 820 MWR25-Oct STORM TIDE 6' PUNTA RASSA 265 820 MWR25-Oct STORM TIDE 5' CLEARWATER 280 828 MWR26-Oct 19Z 991 70 SW SHIP 275 785 MWR "F.D. ASCHE"27-Oct 12Z 996 70 NE 70 SHIP-"W.C. GORGAS" 300 731 COA US034079

Raw Data (significant) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRaw Data (significant) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRaw Data (significant) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRaw Data (significant) for Tampa Bay Hurricane

Track and Surface

Observations of the Tampa

Bay Hurricane

Near Landfall

Track and Surface

Observations of the Tampa

Bay Hurricane

Near Landfall

22585 10/20/1921 M=11 6 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3

22585 10/20/1921 M=11 7 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3

*

22590 10/20*123 801 35 0*131 804 35 0*137 806 35 0*143 809 40 0

22590 10/20*127 801 30 0*131 804 30 0*135 806 30 0*138 809 35 0

*** ** ** *** ** *** **

22595 10/21*148 812 45 0*153 815 50 0*158 818 50 0*162 821 55 0

22595 10/21*142 812 40 0*146 815 45 0*150 818 50 0*155 822 55 0

*** ** *** ** *** *** ***

22600 10/22*166 824 65 0*170 827 70 0*175 830 75 0*181 834 80 0

22600 10/22*160 826 65 0*165 830 70 0*170 835 75 0*176 840 80 0

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22605 10/23*187 838 85 0*194 843 90 0*202 848 95 0*210 854 100 0

22605 10/23*183 845 90 0*191 850 100 0*200 853 110 0*209 854 120 941

*** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22610 10/24*218 858 110 0*226 860 115 0*234 860 120 0*243 857 120 0

22610 10/24*218 855 120 0*228 855 120 0*238 855 120 0*247 852 120 0

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22615 10/25*251 852 120 0*260 846 115 0*269 840 105 0*278 831 90 952

22615 10/25*256 848 120 943*264 844 115 0*271 839 115 0*277 831 110 952

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22585 10/20/1921 M=11 6 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3

22585 10/20/1921 M=11 7 SNBR= 510 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=3

*

22590 10/20*123 801 35 0*131 804 35 0*137 806 35 0*143 809 40 0

22590 10/20*127 801 30 0*131 804 30 0*135 806 30 0*138 809 35 0

*** ** ** *** ** *** **

22595 10/21*148 812 45 0*153 815 50 0*158 818 50 0*162 821 55 0

22595 10/21*142 812 40 0*146 815 45 0*150 818 50 0*155 822 55 0

*** ** *** ** *** *** ***

22600 10/22*166 824 65 0*170 827 70 0*175 830 75 0*181 834 80 0

22600 10/22*160 826 65 0*165 830 70 0*170 835 75 0*176 840 80 0

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22605 10/23*187 838 85 0*194 843 90 0*202 848 95 0*210 854 100 0

22605 10/23*183 845 90 0*191 850 100 0*200 853 110 0*209 854 120 941

*** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22610 10/24*218 858 110 0*226 860 115 0*234 860 120 0*243 857 120 0

22610 10/24*218 855 120 0*228 855 120 0*238 855 120 0*247 852 120 0

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

22615 10/25*251 852 120 0*260 846 115 0*269 840 105 0*278 831 90 952

22615 10/25*256 848 120 943*264 844 115 0*271 839 115 0*277 831 110 952

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

Revised “Best Track” Data (HURDAT) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRevised “Best Track” Data (HURDAT) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRevised “Best Track” Data (HURDAT) for Tampa Bay HurricaneRevised “Best Track” Data (HURDAT) for Tampa Bay Hurricane

“October 23: HWM indicates a closed low of at most 995 mb at 20N, 84.5W. HURDAT listed this as a Category 2 hurricane at 20.2N, 84.8W at 12 UTC. The MWR "Summary of the Hurricanes of 1919, 1920, and 1921" shows a center at 20N, 85.5W (a.m.). The MWR Tracks of Lows indicates a center at 20N, 85W (a.m.) and 21.5N, 85W (p.m.). Available observations suggest that the MWR "Summary" position is more accurate than HURDAT's estimate. Ship highlights: Calm and 941 mb at 27.5N, 85.6W at ~22 UTC (MWR); 50 kt reported three times (MWR and COA).”

Metadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneMetadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneTrack – Example of One DayTrack – Example of One Day

Metadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneMetadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneTrack – Example of One DayTrack – Example of One Day

Metadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneMetadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneIntensity – Example at LandfallIntensity – Example at Landfall

Metadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneMetadata File for the Tampa Bay HurricaneIntensity – Example at LandfallIntensity – Example at Landfall

“At landfall, the central pressure of 952 mb measured in Tarpon Springs between 1940 and 2040 UTC on the 25th suggests winds of 108 kt from the Gulf of Mexico pressure-wind relationship. Ho et al. analyzed a landfall position at 27.9°N, 82.8°W also with a 952 mb central pressure and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 33 km. This RMW value is close to average for the nominal latitude and central pressure (Vickery et al. 2000). Thus 110 kt was assigned for the landfall intensity, making it a high-end Category 3 hurricane. This is in agreement with the HURDAT and Jarrell et al. The highest observed wind at Tampa was 59 kt at 1918 UTC, which converts to 49 kt after adjustment.”

Landfall of 2004 Hurricane Charley

(Map courtesy of National Weather Service Tampa Bay Forecast Office)

Landfall of 2004 Hurricane Charley

(Map courtesy of National Weather Service Tampa Bay Forecast Office)

1921 HURRICANE Category 3 storm at landfall Landfall at Tarpon Springs at 1940

UTC Minimum central pressure of 952 mb

measured by barometer of Dr. A. P. Albaugh (Bowie 1921)

Estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt using Gulf pressure-wind relationship

Estimated RMW of ~18 nmi Moving 40º at 9 kt Underwent rapid intensification 66-72 h

prior to landfall; stayed at Cat. 4 intensity for nearly two days before weakening to a strong Cat. 3 at landfall

Storm tides of up to 10.5’ at Tampa and extensive coastal flooding/storm surge and rainfall throughout Tampa Bay region and the entire Southwest Coast of Florida (Bowie 1921)

CHARLEY Category 4 storm at landfall Landfall in Charlotte Harbor at 2035

UTC Minimum central pressure of 941 mb

measure by dropsonde from AFRES WC-130 aircraft

Estimated maximum sustained winds of 125 kt using reduction algorithm of flight-level winds

Estimated RWM of ≤ 5 nmi Moving 15º at 19 kt Cat. 2 intensity prior to passage over

Cuba about 24 h prior to landfall; did not experience rapid intensification to Cat. 4 until < 6 h prior to landfall

Storm tides of 7’ in Charlotte County and 8’ in Lee County—area impacted by storm surge is small and rainfall was only 3-5”, confined to a radius of 20 nmi from the center (NWS TBW)

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane vs. 2004 Charley1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane vs. 2004 Charley1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane vs. 2004 Charley1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane vs. 2004 Charley

North (Upper) Captiva IslandNorth (Upper) Captiva IslandNorth (Upper) Captiva IslandNorth (Upper) Captiva Island

11 storms in original HURDAT; 9 recommended to be retained after reanalysis

5 landfalling storms– Storm 1: Cat 2 - Florida, Cat 1 - Puerto Rico– Storm 3: Cat 3 - Louisiana– Storm 6: Cat 4 - Florida (SE), Cat 3 - Florida (SW)

Cat 3 - Florida (NW), Cat 3 - Alabama,

Cat 1 - Mississippi (new)– Storm 7: Tropical Storm - Cuba– Storm 10: Cat 4 - Cuba,

Cat 3 - Bermuda 5 storms occurred during September

1926 HURRICANE SEASON1926 HURRICANE SEASON1926 HURRICANE SEASON1926 HURRICANE SEASON

formed as TD in tropical Central Atlantic during the afternoon of 11 September from an easterly wave

intensified into a hurricane during the afternoon on the 14th as it meandered on a WNW - NW track

passed north of Puerto Rico and became a major hurricane by 00 UTC on the 16th, intensifying into a Category 4 storm later during the day and reaching a peak intensity of 125 kt by the evening

maintained same intensity for the next 36 h as it moved WNW over the Turks Islands and the Bahamas--center passed nearly over Grand Turk and very close to Nassau (Mitchell 1926)

made landfall in Miami just after 11 UTC on the 18th, in which the wind center appeared to cross just south of downtown--minimum central pressure of 933 mb was recorded

crossed the Everglades and exited into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 storm at 2030 UTC at Punta Rassa, which recorded a minimum central pressure of 950 mb

turned to the NW and quickly re-strengthened back into a Category 3 storm by 00 UTC on the 19th

reached second peak intensity of 110 kt 24 h later and maintained this intensity before hooking left, decelerating, and making a second U.S. landfall at Perdido Beach, AL near FL/AL border at 2030 UTC on the 20th

tracked west right along the Gulf coast, decreasing in intensity but still maintaining hurricane strength through 15 UTC on the 21st when it finally went inland for good at Bay St. Louis, MS

weakened to a TS and then a depression over southern LA and finally dissipated near the LA/TX border by the morning of the 22nd

1926 GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE1926 GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE1926 GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE1926 GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE

total number of fatalities was at least 262 in Miami and the surrounding area and an estimated 6,381 people were injured

storm greatly affected other parts of the state, particularly the Panhandle, including an estimated 18,000 families

$80-100 M losses resulted from wind, rain, and storm surge damage

storm surge was measured at 11.7’ above mean low water along Biscayne Blvd. and estimated as high as 14-15’ in Coconut Grove—also high further up East Coast and along Gulf Coast

Impacts of 1926 Great Miami HurricaneImpacts of 1926 Great Miami HurricaneImpacts of 1926 Great Miami HurricaneImpacts of 1926 Great Miami Hurricane

1926 Great Miami Hurricane1926 Great Miami Hurricane

23980 09/11/1926 M=12 6 SNBR= 537 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=423985 09/11* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*150 485 30 0*152 495 30 023990 09/12*154 505 30 0*157 515 30 0*160 525 35 0*163 534 35 023995 09/13*166 542 40 0*169 551 40 0*172 560 45 0*174 571 45 024000 09/14*176 584 50 0*179 598 55 0*182 611 60 0*186 621 65 024005 09/15*191 629 70 0*197 636 75 0*202 642 85 0*205 650 90 024010 09/16*207 660 95 0*209 670 100 0*210 680 110 0*213 693 120 024015 09/17*217 710 125 0*221 727 125 0*225 743 125 0*232 758 125 024020 09/18*242 773 125 0*251 788 125 0*257 803 125 933*262 816 90 95024025 09/19*268 825 100 0*273 833 105 0*278 841 105 0*284 848 105 024030 09/20*290 855 110 0*296 862 110 0*301 868 110 0*303 873 110 024035 09/21*303 877 95 955*303 881 80 0*303 886 70 983*304 894 60 024040 09/22*305 905 35 0*306 917 25 0*307 929 20 0* 0 0 0 024045 HRCFL4BFL3AFL3 AL3 MS1

23980 09/11/1926 M=12 6 SNBR= 537 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=423985 09/11* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0*150 485 30 0*152 495 30 023990 09/12*154 505 30 0*157 515 30 0*160 525 35 0*163 534 35 023995 09/13*166 542 40 0*169 551 40 0*172 560 45 0*174 571 45 024000 09/14*176 584 50 0*179 598 55 0*182 611 60 0*186 621 65 024005 09/15*191 629 70 0*197 636 75 0*202 642 85 0*205 650 90 024010 09/16*207 660 95 0*209 670 100 0*210 680 110 0*213 693 120 024015 09/17*217 710 125 0*221 727 125 0*225 743 125 0*232 758 125 024020 09/18*242 773 125 0*251 788 125 0*257 803 125 933*262 816 90 95024025 09/19*268 825 100 0*273 833 105 0*278 841 105 0*284 848 105 024030 09/20*290 855 110 0*296 862 110 0*301 868 110 0*303 873 110 024035 09/21*303 877 95 955*303 881 80 0*303 886 70 983*304 894 60 024040 09/22*305 905 35 0*306 917 25 0*307 929 20 0* 0 0 0 024045 HRCFL4BFL3AFL3 AL3 MS1

Revised HURDAT for Great Miami HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Great Miami HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Great Miami HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Great Miami Hurricane

quickly formed as a TD and then became a TS shortly after emerging as an easterly wave off of Africa on 6 October

tracked just south of due west to the south of the Cape Verde Islands and then mostly west at a steady pace over the next few days

reached hurricane strength during the afternoon of the 10th in the tropical Central Atlantic based on observations of three ships

became a major hurricane by 00 UTC on the 12th and intensified to Category 4 status in the afternoon before passing over Guadeloupe

continued to intensify as it moved WNW near the Virgin Islands and made landfall as a Category 5 storm at 1830 UTC on the 13th

moved over the island the next 7 h with very heavy rainfall and exited back into the Atlantic as a 120 kt Category 3 storm early on the 14th

tracked NW over Bahamas and made landfall at West Palm Beach at 00 UTC on the 17th as a strong Category 4 storm

moved over Lake Okeechobee and then recurved east of Tampa, weakening to Category 1 storm

moved NNE just west of Jacksonville and then back over the Atlantic on morning of the 18th, passing east of Savannah, reintensifying slightly but still at Category 1 strength

made second U.S. landfall over Charleston around 12 UTC on the 18th and tracked inland near the coast, weakening to a tropical storm around Myrtle Beach in the evening

turned north and then NNW and continued up into VA, MD, and PA, where it became extratropical on the 20th

1928 OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE1928 OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE1928 OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE1928 OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneImpacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricanePuerto RicoPuerto Rico

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneImpacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricanePuerto RicoPuerto Rico

300 fatalities $50 M in damages (several billion today) over 25” rainfall in some areas of the island 12 h of hurricane force winds were observed in San Juan 936 mb recorded in Guayama (might not be central pressure) 139 kt 1-min winds observed at San Juan (with new 3 cup

anemometer but was 25 nmi from center – may not be 10 m wind and may have had poor exposure)

originally listed in HURDAT as Category 5 (140 kt) – may need to be downgraded

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneImpacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneFloridaFlorida

Impacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneImpacts of 1928 Okeechobee HurricaneFloridaFlorida

1836 fatalities officially (2500 estimate suggested by Rusty Pfost [BAMS 2003] based upon new books by Eliot Kleinberg [Black Cloud] and Robert Mykle [Killer ‘Cane])

$25 M in damages ($15-20 billion today) hurricane warnings issued at 1530 UTC on the 16th even though

pressure at West Palm Beach was already 997 mb first gale observed at Miami at 19 UTC on the 16th (WPB ~1-2 hr

earlier) Landfall at West Palm Beach at 00 UTC on the 17th with 929 mb

pressure storm tide 10’ north of Palm Beach lake surge of 10-15’ from Lake Okeechobee originally listed in HURDAT as Category 4 (130 kt)

1928 Okeechobee Hurricane1928 Okeechobee Hurricane

1928 Okeechobee Hurricane1928 Okeechobee Hurricane

24775 09/06/1928 M=16 4 SNBR= 553 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=424780 09/06*142 170 30 0*141 185 30 0*140 200 35 0*138 216 35 024785 09/07*137 232 40 0*136 248 45 0*135 265 50 0*135 282 50 024790 09/08*135 300 50 0*136 317 50 0*137 335 50 0*138 352 50 024795 09/09*139 370 50 0*140 387 50 0*142 405 50 0*143 422 55 024800 09/10*144 440 55 0*145 457 60 0*147 475 60 0*149 492 65 024805 09/11*152 509 70 0*155 526 75 0*158 542 80 0*159 558 85 024810 09/12*159 573 95 0*159 588 100 0*160 603 110 0*162 615 120 94024815 09/13*165 626 130 0*170 636 135 0*175 648 140 931*180 660 140 024820 09/14*185 670 120 941*189 680 120 0*193 691 120 0*199 700 120 024825 09/15*207 708 120 0*215 717 120 0*222 727 120 0*229 738 120 94124830 09/16*237 750 120 0*245 763 120 0*253 776 125 0*260 788 125 024835 09/17*267 800 125 929*272 811 100 0*278 820 85 0*286 822 75 024840 09/18*295 821 70 0*307 815 70 979*320 808 80 0*330 800 70 024845 09/19*338 792 65 0*348 783 60 0*358 775 60 0*368 773 50 024850 09/20E380 775 40 0E397 780 35 0E415 790 30 1008E435 792 30 024850 09/21E455 790 25 1002* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 024855 HRCFL4BFL3AFL1DFL1 GA1 SC1

24775 09/06/1928 M=16 4 SNBR= 553 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=424780 09/06*142 170 30 0*141 185 30 0*140 200 35 0*138 216 35 024785 09/07*137 232 40 0*136 248 45 0*135 265 50 0*135 282 50 024790 09/08*135 300 50 0*136 317 50 0*137 335 50 0*138 352 50 024795 09/09*139 370 50 0*140 387 50 0*142 405 50 0*143 422 55 024800 09/10*144 440 55 0*145 457 60 0*147 475 60 0*149 492 65 024805 09/11*152 509 70 0*155 526 75 0*158 542 80 0*159 558 85 024810 09/12*159 573 95 0*159 588 100 0*160 603 110 0*162 615 120 94024815 09/13*165 626 130 0*170 636 135 0*175 648 140 931*180 660 140 024820 09/14*185 670 120 941*189 680 120 0*193 691 120 0*199 700 120 024825 09/15*207 708 120 0*215 717 120 0*222 727 120 0*229 738 120 94124830 09/16*237 750 120 0*245 763 120 0*253 776 125 0*260 788 125 024835 09/17*267 800 125 929*272 811 100 0*278 820 85 0*286 822 75 024840 09/18*295 821 70 0*307 815 70 979*320 808 80 0*330 800 70 024845 09/19*338 792 65 0*348 783 60 0*358 775 60 0*368 773 50 024850 09/20E380 775 40 0E397 780 35 0E415 790 30 1008E435 792 30 024850 09/21E455 790 25 1002* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 0* 0 0 0 024855 HRCFL4BFL3AFL1DFL1 GA1 SC1

Revised HURDAT for Okeechobee HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Okeechobee HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Okeechobee HurricaneRevised HURDAT for Okeechobee Hurricane

SUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARY

Storm Dates Original Peak

Intensity

Revised Peak

Intensity

Track

Revisions

Intensity Revisions

Genesis/Decay

U.S. Impact

Tampa Bay

20-30 Oct. 1921

120 kt

Cat. 4

120 kt

Cat. 4

Minor Major ET delayed 2 days

FL

(3 regions)

Great Miami

11-22 Sept. 1926

130 kt

Cat. 4

130 kt

Cat. 4

Major Major No Changes

FL

(3regions), AL, MS

Okee-chobee/

San Felipe

6-21 Sept. 1928

140 kt

Cat. 5

140 kt

Cat. 5

Minor Major Genesis

12 h earlier;

Decay 6 h later;

ET 6 h earlier

FL

(4 regions), GA, SC