The Reality of Livestock Movement Patterns

Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.Professor, Ag Economics &

Ag BusinessLas Cruces, NM

Outline

1. Livestock in the United States

2. Movement of livestock in the United States

3. NMSU research on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle

4. General trade situation & outlook

5. Beef & cattle trade in North America

Livestock in the United States

• Cattle

• Sheep

• Hogs

• Interstate Livestock Movements– Shields & Mathews USDA-ERS 2003– http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/jun0

3/ldpm10801/

Cattle Imports from Mexico

Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves 2003

Hidalgo TX8%

Laredo TX6%

Nogales AZ13%

Presidio TX21%

San Luis AZ4%

Columbus NM6%

Del Rio TX9%

Santa Teresa NM

21%

Eagle Pass TX4%

Douglas AZ8%

Total Annual U.S. Live Cattle Imports from Mexico (1961 - 2003)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Hea

d (1

,000

s)

Mexican Calves Exported to the U.S. By Month (1972-2004)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Jan1972

Jan1977

Jan1982

Jan1987

Jan1992

Jan1997

Jan2002

Hea

d

NM Research on Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Calves

• Research began 2001• Interest in livestock traceability

– Europe, Canada– Foot & Mouth, BSE– Terrorism– Tuberculosis

• Data for imported calves – Sta. Teresa / San Jerónimo

Sources of Data …– Origins of the calves in Mexico

• Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera, J. Flores • 900 observations – The “Ins”

– Destinations of calves in the U.S.• Unión Ganadera, bills of lading; Wm. Wallace III• 4,025 observations – The “Outs”

• New Mexico Livestock Board; Dr. S. England• 2,278 observations – New Mexico Inspection Certificates

– Assistance in obtaining the data• R. Tellez, NMDA

Research Publications

• “Live Cattle Exports from Mexico Into the United States: Where Do They Come From & Where Do They Go?”

– Skaggs, Acuña, Torell & Southard

– http://www.choicesmagazine.org/current/2004-1-05.htm

Research Publications

• “Mexican Cattle Exports to the US: Current Perspectives”

– Mitchell, Skaggs, Gorman, Crawford & Southard

• http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/AgOutlook/june2001/AO282d.pdf

Trade & U.S. Agriculture

• Food demand in the U.S. will not grow significantly in the future– U.S. population is affluent & well fed– U.S. food market is saturated– Food demand is income & price inelastic

• U.S. Ag needs international markets– Earnings from exports are 20-30% of total

U.S. farm income– Trade is a two-way street

Value of Agricultural Trade

• Japan, EU, Canada & Mexico are leading export markets

• Canada, EU & Mexico are top sources of U.S. ag imports

• U.S. ag exports > ag imports since 1950s

• U.S. is world’s largest ag importer & exporter

Livestock (& Beef) Trade

• Live animals, meats, meat products, hides, by-products, genetics are widely traded

• U.S. imports & exports all types of livestock products and live animals

• U.S. beef exports = 10% of U.S. beef production

• Parts of 90% of all U.S. cattle end up exported• 2003 export market losses = 60,000 head/week

Top Markets for U.S. Beef

• Japan 32%

• Mexico 26%

• South Korea 24%

• Canada 10%

Total Value of U.S. Beef & Cattle Trade with Canada & Mexico

U.S. Imports from Mexico & Canada

66%

U.S. Exports to Mexico& Canada

34%

$4.1 Billion (2002)

Total Value of U.S. – Canada Beef & Cattle Trade

$2.8 Billion (2002)

Breeding Exports to Canada

0%

Beef Exports to Canada

12%

Breeding Imports from

Canada1%

Slaughter Exports to Canada

2%

Beef Imports from Canada

44%

Slaughter Imports from

Canada41%

Total Value of U.S. – Mexico Beef & Cattle Trade

$1.4 Billion (2002)

Beef Imports from Mexico

2%

Breeding Exports to

Mexico1%Slaughter

Exports to Mexico

5%

Feeder Imports from Mexico

22%

Beef Exports to Mexico

70%

Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station

Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag BusinessBox 30003 MSC 3169

New Mexico State UniversityLas Cruces, NM 88003

Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401Fax: 505-646-3808

Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu

Contact Information

Acknowledgements

• New Mexico Department of Agriculture – Marketing & Development Division

• New Mexico Livestock Board– State Veterinarian

• Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua• Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua

• USDA – Economic Research Service• USDA – Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service

My Current Research…

1. Movement of cattle and meat between the U.S. and Mexico.

2. Description of the cattle export process in Chihuahua.

3. Econometric models including Mexican cattle imports.

My Current Research…

4. Survey of calf exporters in Chihuahua.

5. Electronic identification systems – analysis and feasibility.

6. Development of improved bill of lading (proposed for use on U.S. side of cattle crossings).