The Reality of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Production of Hydro systems in Iran Prof....
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Transcript of The Reality of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Production of Hydro systems in Iran Prof....
The Reality of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Production of Hydro
systems in Iran
Prof. H.Sedghi
Member of Academy
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The science is not Ideology but a source of doubt
The Earth Science is actually facing three concepts of climatic change:
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Introduction :
First :
Real or Actual Climate Change :
Universal and natural climate variation based on “Energy balance of Sun – Atmosphere and Earth” including spatial contribution.
This change is obviously periodic and reversible.
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Second
Climate change based on development activities:
:
Any man interference in nature even if it is called sustainable. (Sustainable development is not possible in a sensible climate region).
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Third:
Potential Climate Change or Probable Climate Change:
Irreversible change based on global evolution of almost a single meteorological parameter (air temperature).
known as “Global warming”.
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The General Definition of Climate :
1- Climatology:Encompasses behavior of temperature and humidity in a geographical perimeter.
2- Hydrology: Encompasses resultant of numerical values of all natural parameters presenting the climate as a variable.
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Sciences dealing with water production on earth
• Geography • Climatology• Meteorology• Hydrometeorology• Hydrology
Groundwater hydrology
Surface water hydrology
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Surface Water Hydrology
• Which is the most applicable science for water production in the nature.
• And the other sciences seems to be auxiliary tools for solving the related problems.
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Processes transforming climate to water:
1- Natural Processes
2- Mathematical Simulated Processes
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A parallel presentation of two processes is:
• Based on weather and climate data national centers for environmental prediction. National weather service, NOAA.
• Hydrological data processing of a major hydro systems in Iran.
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An example of several meteorological parameters as point time variables
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Air Masses generation in north hemisphere
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IRAN
PRINCIPAL PERIMETERS OF AIR MOISTURE SUPPLY OF IRAN IN THE NORTH HEMISPHER
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Principal trajectory of moisture into Iran
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Random distribution of air moisture in the trajectory
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Alborz orography as a random target
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Zagross orography as a random target
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Surface water Generation Zone and Water Use Perimeters
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Caspian Sea
Persian Golf
Coordinates of five principal Rivers Generating 50 percent of lumped S.W. Production of Iran.
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Caspian Sea
Persian Golf
Water Production Zone
Transient Zone
Consumption Zone
Water Production Zone
Transient Zone
Consum
ption Zone
Water Production, Transient and Consumption Zones
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Legend
Annuals Variation of Estimated Volume in BCM
JELOGIR KARKHE
TALE ZANG DEZ
ARMAND KARUN
MARGHAK BAZOFT
BARZ KHERSAN
Legend
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2424
2525
Daily hydrographs of P.shalu for 1992 and 2008
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0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 3600
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Day
Dis
char
ge((
CM
S
Cu.
Va.
MC
M)
16383
1992
2008-2009
Cu. Va. (MCM) 1992- 1993
Cu. Va. (MCM) 2008-2009
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K1 Spill during 71-72
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101111121131141151161171
Days
Q in
cm
s
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هاي شالو ٧١-٧٢سيالب پل در
Flood Hydrographs of 71-72 at pol-shalu
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Time in hours
Q in
cm
s
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Climate Change based on Development
Development Activities :
1. Dam and Reservoir construction2. Change the regime of surface flow3. Water use for any kind of consumption4. Satisfy the growing demand, and briefly man interference in any phaseany components of “Hydrologic Balance” or
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In Some Climates such as Middle-East
• Only a simple interference could destroy the whole Ecosystem.
• Example: Mesopotamian system had experienced its Irreversible Retrograded Evolution since the Apparition of the first Dam in the Environmental countries.
• The Result: A Real Climate Change
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Briefly
Climate change and consequently Water quantity and quality change is real and permanent in our hydro systems.
Only the natural change and man made one are detectable by real and measured available data.
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Briefly The climatic scenarios based on Ultra scale
natural simulation models are useful if a deterministic correlation between climatic parameters and Water quantity and Water quality could be available.
Enough Clean Water or Optimal Clean Air ?
We have to choose one , if both of theme may be an other time.
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With many Thanks to my Ph.D Students:
• H. Khedmati • H. Rahmati• M. M. Sabaghi