The Rapidly Changing Economics of Solar PV Power - Energy · The Rapidly Changing Economics of...
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Transcript of The Rapidly Changing Economics of Solar PV Power - Energy · The Rapidly Changing Economics of...
The Rapidly Changing Economics of Solar PV Power
Stefan Reichelstein1 Anshuman Sahoo2
1Graduate School of Business
Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance
Stanford University
2Department of Management Science & Engineering
Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance
Stanford University
February 2014
Introduction
Solar PV Power: A Tale of Two Industries
Downstream:
Solar PV currently accounts for a small share of electric powergenerated in the U.S. But growth rates have been impressive:
40 GW of solar power generation capacity installed in 201340 GW ≈ total cumulative installations between 1970s and 2010By 2013, global installations of solar PV had reached ≈ 150 GW
Solar developers, e.g. SolarCity, are succeeding in the marketplace
Upstream:
Solar panel prices have dropped dramatically in recent years→ 80% drop between 2008 and 2012
Massive additions to global PV manufacturing capacity→ Entry from Chinese suppliers
By all common �nancial metrics, solar PV module manufacturershave been "bleeding" �nancially, at least until recently
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Introduction
Three Central Questions for the Economics of Solar PV
Question 1:
Is electric power generated by solar PV technology currently costcompetitive with that from fossil fuels?
Consider two alternative PV technologies and two scales:Crystalline silicon and thin-�lm PV technologiesUtility scale (1MW+) and commercial scale (0.1 - 1MW)
Question 2:
Which factors are crucial in determining the cost competitiveness ofSolar PV?
Question 3:
Can we simply extrapolate the recent trajectory of solar panel prices topredict future prices?DOE's Sunshot Initiative: Need for a `breakthrough' in solar PVtechnology?
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Levelized Cost of Electricity
Cost Comparison of Alternative Energy Sources
Ongoing public discussion about the e�ectiveness of renewableenergies when compared against coal, natural gas and oil.
Statements like: "As it stands, electricity from solar power is
X-times more costly than electricity obtained from coal power
plants" ricochet all the time in the media.
Fundamental challenge for such cost comparisons is thatalternative technologies di�er vastly in terms of:
Upfront capital expendituresPeriodic operating costsApplicable tax rules
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Levelized Cost of Electricity
A Common Cost Metric: LCOE
The 2007-MIT study on "The Future of Coal" provides thefollowing verbal de�nition:"...the levelized cost of electricity is the constant dollar electricity
price that would be required over the life of the plant to cover all
operating expenses, payment of debt and accrued interest on initial
project expenses, and the payment of an acceptable return to
investors"
Fundamentally, LCOE is a break-even sales price (per kWh) neededto justify an investment in a particular power generation facility
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Levelized Cost of Electricity
LCOE Components
Levelized Cost of Electricity
LCOE = w + f + c ·∆
where
w denotes the time-averaged variable operating cost (in $ per kWh)
f denotes the time-averaged �xed operating cost (in $ per kWh)
c denotes the unit cost of capacity (in $ per kWh)
∆ is the tax factor (in%)
Remark
→ LCOE aligns with the Net Present Value (NPV) of an investment→ LCOE is the average price, per kWh, that must be earned so thatthe present value of all operating cash �ows (after tax) is zero
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Cost Competitiveness of Solar PV Today (Question 1)
Input Parameters Chosen as `best case'
ParameterUtility - Silicon
Utility - Thin Film
Commercial - Silicon
Commercial - Thin Film
Derate factorModule Price ($/Wp-DC)
BoS price ($/Wp-DC) 1.10 1.30 1.35 1.55DC-to-AC capacity factor 19.9% 20.6% 17.7% 18.1%Degradation factor 99.65% 99.50% 99.50% 99.25%
Fixed O&M costs ($/Wp-DC/yr) 0.015 0.020 0.023 0.030Discount rate 7.50% 7.50% 8.00% 8.00%
Useful LifeInvestment tax credit
Depreciation typeTax rate
5-years MACRS schedule40%
Scenario
85%0.70
30 years30%
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Cost Competitiveness of Solar PV Today (Question 1)
LCOE Calculator for Commercial Scale Solar PV
Useful life (economic), T 30 yearsTax Depreciation Method 2System Price (for solar, enter DC system price), SP (total overnight cost) 2.05 ($/W)Solar DC/AC Derate factor (for other technologies, enter 100%) 85.00%Investment Tax Credit, i 30.00%Capacity factor, CF 17.70%System Degradation Factor, xt 99.50%Fixed O&M Cost, Ft 23 ($/kW - yr)Variable O&M Cost, w (excluding fuel) 0 ($/kWh)Fuel Cost 0 ($/kWh)Carbon Dioxide Emissions Cost (Allowance Cost) 0 ($/tCO2e)Emissions 0.0000 (kg CO2e/kWh)Cost of Capital, r 8.00%Effective corporate tax rate, α 40.00%
Unit Capacity Cost, c 0.1235 ($/kWh)Tax factor, ∆ 0.7069Average fixed O&M cost, f 0.0156 ($/kWh)Average variable O&M cost (including fuel), w 0.0000 ($/kWh)Levelized cost of electricity 0.1029 ($/kWh)
Input Parameters: Solar-Commercial-Silicon
LCOE calculation
The Levelized Cost of Electricity
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Cost Competitiveness of Solar PV Today (Question 1)
Current LCOE Estimates
Finding:
Our parameter values give rise to the following Levelized Cost of
Electricity estimates (in ¢ per kWh):
Utility-Scale Commercial-ScaleSilicon 7.3 10.3
Thin �lm 8.1 11.7
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Cost Competitiveness of Solar PV Today (Question 1)
Current LCOE Estimates
Comparisons:
Commercial-scale PV already more than competitive in areas withhigh commercial retail electricity rates
SoCal average commercial retail rates around 12 - 14 ¢/kWh
Utility-scale PV ≈ 10% more expensive than electricity generatedwith natural gas
LCOE for NGCC facility about 6.6 ¢/kWhCredits from Renewable Portfolio Standards (in select U.S. states)give additional boost to utility-scale installationsTrackers can achieve substantial cost reductions
Tradeo�: Higher system cost vs. higher capacity factor
LCOE reduction of up to 20% for ideal sites
Silicon Crystalline and Thin Film are running `neck-and-neck'
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Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Location, Location, Location....
Map shows the "e�ective" hours of sunshine per year.1
Capacity factor is roughly proportional to insolation factor1Source: U.S. Department of Energy
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Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Sensitivity Analysis
Cutting capacity factor in half e�ectively doubles LCOE→ Permanent disadvantage for northern locations!
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Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Intermittency and Time of Day Pricing
There is considerable variation across the hours of the day andacross the seasons of the year in:
The pattern of intermittent power generationTime-of-Day electricity pricing
Basic LCOE calculation appropriate for dispatchable energysources and/or �at pricing structures
Basic LCOE does not capture synergies or complementaritiesbetween intermittent generation and pricing patterns
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Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Solar PV: Generation Pattern (summer)
Example summer generation for a 1kW installation in San Francisco:2
Highest productivity between 10:00 a.m and 5:00 p.m.
Peak generation more than 3x average generation
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250
500
750
0 5 10 15 20 25t: Hour Ending
Pow
er G
ener
atio
n (W
) S
olid
line
dep
icts
ave
rage
pow
er g
ener
atio
n.
Example Power Generation from a Fixed Array Solar PV System: Summer
2Simulated data from NREL PVWatts13 / 25
Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Small commercial customers: Pricing Pattern (summer)
Customers with demand < 500kW often on PG&E A6 schedule
Retail price is $0.44/kWh during summer peak demand periods3
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25t: Hour Ending
p(t)
in $
/kW
h S
olid
line
dep
icts
ave
rage
pric
e, p
.
PG&E A6 Time−of−Use Commercial Rates (Summer)
3Data from PG&E A6 rate schedule14 / 25
Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
LCOE Adjustment
To account for the joint e�ect of intermittency and time-of-daypricing:
Recent analysis suggests to append LCOE with a multiplicativeadjustment factor: Co-variation coe�cient→ Retain, but adjust, existing LCOEs (Reichelstein & Sahoo,2013)
Co-variation coe�cient = 1 if either:Power prices are uniform over time, orPower generation is uniform (dispatchable energy source)
For small commercial customers in the San Francisco Area:
Co-variation coe�cient equals 1.17
Adjusted LCOE =LCOE
1.17
E�ectively, a 15% reduction in levelized cost
15 / 25
Sensitivity Analysis (Question 2)
Impact of Federal Tax Subsidies
How crucial are the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and theaccelerated tax depreciation allowance (MACRS) for the economicviability of solar power?
Finding
ITC and MACRS have the following impact on the LCOE estimates for
commercial-scale silicon PV (in ¢ per kWh):
5-year MACRS 20-year DB30% ITC 10.3 12.3No ITC 15.5 17.8
Without either subsidy, tax factor, ∆, jumps from .7 to 1.3
Tax rules beyond 2017: 10% ITC and MACRS→ LCOE would increase from 10.3 to 13.7 ¢ per kWh
16 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
The 80% Learning Curve
Historically, sales prices for solar PV modules have shown aremarkably consistent downward trendSwanson (2011) documents the following classic "80% learningcurve": Every time the cumulative volume of modules produceddoubles, prices fall by 20%
17 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
The Last Three Years
Annual installations:28 GW in 2011, 30 GW in 2012, 39 GW in 2013Key Question: Growing demand and cost reductions versus
Excessive additions to production capacity?18 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
Economically Sustainable Module Prices
Economically Sustainable Module Prices (ESP) are what modulemanufacturers would need to charge in order to "break-even"�cover their costs and receive a normal return on investment
ESPs comprise (i) capacity related costs (ii) manufacturing costsand (iii) period costs (SG&A and R&D)
Reichelstein and Sahoo (2014) analyze sample data:
11 module manufacturers for the period 2008-2012Collective market share of ≈ 26%Infer production costs from �rm-level �nancial statementsInfer production levels and shipments from �nancial statements andindustry analysts
19 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
Economically Sustainable Module Prices
Conclusion:
ESPs and ASPs close for most of 2008-2010, but substantial gap for
2011-2012
20 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
Points to Note
Given investments in production capacity and administrativestructure, only current manufacturing costs are relevant in theshort-run.
Our estimate of short-run avoidable cost: ≈70 ¢ per WattImplication for international trade disputes about "dumping":China ↔ U.S. and Europe
Analysis of �rm-level data allows us to estimate learning rates formanufacturing- and capacity costs (Sahoo, 2014)
21 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
Extrapolating ESPs
22 / 25
Future Module Price Reductions (Question 3)
Reading the Tea Leaves
The ESP curve represents economic fundamentals and assumes anindustry equilibrium
Our model of future cost reductions invokes both cumulativeproduction volume and calendar time as drivers of learning→ Roughly a 75% learning curve
We expect convergence between ESPs and ASPs in coming yearsASPs are predicted not to exceed the ESPsNew capacity additions unlikely until ASPs are "on track" to catchup with ESPs
New capacity additions would move us further down the ESPcurve.→ Market demand will determine that trajectory→ Public subsidies will drive market demand
23 / 25
Conclusion
Summary
For PV installations ("downstream"), we conclude:In favorable U.S. locations, commercial-scale solar PV poweralready cost competitive with retail commercial ratesLCOE for utility-scale PV currently 10% above generation cost ofnatural gas facilitiesFindings assume both current federal tax subsidies and an idealgeographic location
For module manufacturers ("upstream"), we �nd:Dramatic price reductions for modules in 2011-2012 in large partdue to excess module manufacturing capacityAt the same time, the cost reductions achieved appear to be morefavorable than suggested by the 81% learning trend lineEconomically sustainable price still near $0.9 per Watt in 2013
For the next �ve years, we predict:ASPs distinctly below the 81% learning trend lineWithout faster growth in market demand, the goal of 50 ¢ per Wattfor modules by 2017 will probably not be met, with a remaining gapof about 15 ¢ per Watt
24 / 25
Conclusion
Questions?
Stefan Reichelstein and Anshuman SahooStanford UniversityContact: [email protected]
25 / 25
![References - link.springer.com978-0-387-77451-0/1.pdf · References 475 [21] Baldenius, T., and S. Reichelstein, "External and Internal Pricing in Multidivisional Firms," JournalofAccountingResearch(March,](https://static.fdocuments.in/doc/165x107/5f82328acc4ea65f4c0edb5b/references-link-978-0-387-77451-01pdf-references-475-21-baldenius-t.jpg)
