The Rapidly Changing Arc2c: why does it ma9er to you?
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The Rapidly Changing Arc2c: why does it ma9er to you? Fran Ulmer Chair, US Arc2c Research Commission University of Arizona April 2017
Transcript of The Rapidly Changing Arc2c: why does it ma9er to you?
TheRapidlyChangingArc2c:whydoesitma9ertoyou?
FranUlmerChair,USArc2cResearchCommission
UniversityofArizonaApril2017
*Whatischangingandwhy?*Whoisimpactedandhow?*Whatisourna2onalpolicyintheArc2c?*Whatistheinterna2onalsitua2on?*Whatisatstake?
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Arc2cregiondefinedinUSlaw
Arc2c:
•8countries•4Mpeople,indigenous•Sovereignrights/na2onalagendas•Econdevelopment•Military/security
Antarc2c:
•0countries•0ci2zens•Treaty(30countries):nomilitaryorecondevelopment•$logis2csforscience
RapidlychangingArc2c• Warmingtemperatures(2Xglobalrate)
• Retrea2ngglaciers&lessseaice(50%area,75%volume)
• Evolvingecosystems(winnersandlosers)
• Thawingpermafrost
• Changingoceanchemistry
• Increasinghumanac2vity
• Risingsealevels(global)
Confirmed:2016theWarmestYearinHistoryofGlobalRecordkeeping
Arc2ciswarmingfasterthanglobalaverage
NOAAclimate.gov
WhatdoesawarmingArc2cmeantoArc2cresidentsandcommuni2es?
Impactstosubsistencefoodsandculturalprac2ces
Impactstocoastalvillagesandbasicinfrastructure
Community/culturalresilience
• Arc2chumanhealth• Foodsecurity
• Languageandculture
• Adap2nginfrastructure&engineeringtochangingcondi2ons
Communityinstability&villagereloca2ons
• Increasedstorms,unpredictableweather,extremeevents
• Lessseaicetoactasablanketonoceanmeansbiggerwaves
• Impactoninfrastructurefromerosion,thawingpermafrost,risingsealevel
• ShishmarefvotedtomovethevillageAugust2016
Shishmaref1of31villagesthreatenedby
floodingorerosion:GAO&USACE
�Ifcarbonemissionscon2nueattheircurrentpace,theclimate-relatedcostsformaintainingandrepairingpublicroads,pipelines,buildings,airportsandraillineswillbe$5.5billionby2099.�Melvinetal.,2016
Permafrostthawingimpactscoastlines,communi2es,people’ssafety&healthClimateimpactfrommethane&CO2release
AsEarthwarms,thediseasesthatmayliewithinPermafrostbecomeabiggerworry:
anthraxoutbreakinRussia2016
Newresearchsuggeststhatmorethanhalftheworld'soceanscouldsuffermul2plesymptomsofclimatechangeoverthenext15years,including:• risingtemperatures• acidifica2on• loweroxygenlevels• decreasingfoodsupplies
(Hensonetal.2017:www.nature.com/ar2cles/ncomms14682#supplementary-informa2on)
Oceanacidifica2on
• TheArc2cOceanispar2cularlysensi2vetoOA
• Widespreadacidifica2onisoccurringinthecentralArc2cOceananditssurroundingseas
• BecauseArc2cmarinefoodwebsarerela2velysimple,Arc2cmarineecosystemsarevulnerabletochangewhenkeyspeciesareaffectedbyexternalfactors
• Newresearch(Qietal.,2017)suggeststhatalarge—andincreasing—swathoftheoceanmayhavereachedalevelthat�sdangerousforsomemarineorganisms
Sealevelrisingwithincreasedmel2ng:scien2stsrecentlydoubledes2mateofglobalsealevelrise(3’to6’)by2100
AnedgeofAntarc2ca’sThwaitesiceshelf:Theblue,visibleareasaredenserice.
Iftheen2reGreenlandsheetmelted,globalsealevelwouldrise21feet
MiamiBeach3’sealevelrisewillinundatemuchofthecity
Residentssplitonhowmuchtoworry
YaleProgramonClimateChangeCommunica2on
Riskpercep2on…Globalwarmingwillharm“people”vs.“me,personally”
“Sunny-day”floodinginNorfolk
Dailyhigh2deswillreachfartherinland
HurricaneIsabelba9erscarsathesta2oninSept.2003.Thestormsurgedidsignificantdamagetomilitaryinstalla2ons.
• World’slargestnavalinstalla2on
• Sealevelhasrisen8”since1970• Scien2stsexpectanother6”by2030
NavalSta2onNorfolk,Virginia
CoastalfloodinginN.andS.Carolina
Arc2cwarmingimpactsglobalweather
ChangesinArc2cice/snowcovermayimpactweatherthousandsofmilesawaythrougheffectsonthejetstream
ReducedArc2cSeaiceimpactswavinessofjetstream……bringingcoldairsouth,andwarmairnorth(JenniferFrancis,Rutgers)
China’ssmoglinkedtoArc2cclimate?
Stormsareincreasinginintensityandfrequency
Since1990,naturaldisastershaveaffected~217millionpeopleannually.
Notethatthenumberofgeophysicaldisasters(e.g.,volcanoerup2onsandearthquakes)hasremainedfairlystablesincethe1970's,whilethenumberofclimate-relateddisastershasgreatlyincreased.
Increasingeconomicdamagefromclimate-relateddisasters
“Theopeningofthe‘fi/hocean,”theArc6c,forlongerperiodsof6me,willprovidenewaccesstoresources,migra6onoffishingstocksandeventuallynewtraderoutes,thatcan’tbeoverstated.”FormerChiefofNavalOpera2onsAdm.GaryRoughead(re2red)
LessiceintheArc2cischangingaccess
Increasedaccess=economicac2vity• Shipping
• Fisheries
• Tourism
• Mining
• Oilandgas
Thule AB
= Bottleneck
Europe to Asia - 40 to 50% Savings
Poten2alArc2cShippingRoutes
Bering Strait
RussiapromotesArc2cshippinginNorthernSeaRoute
Arc2ccoastguardsagreetoteamupforshippingemergencies3/24/17
“CrystalSerenity”Expedi2onAugust2016&2017
• 900passengers• 32days• $25Kto$150Kperperson
Proofof$50Kworthofemergencyevacua2onRepatria2oninsurancerequired
Arc2cTourismExpanding
CommercialfishingintheArc2c
Arc2cna2onssigndeclara2ontoprotectArc2c'donuthole’inCentralArc2cOceanfromunregulatedfishing”Precau2onaryApproach”
13%oil
30%naturalgas
20%naturalgasliquids
2009USGSCARAreport
Arc2chasmuchofworld’sremaining“undiscovered”
fossilfuel
OilandGasDevelopment
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Challengesofworkinginextremeenvironment
• Severe&coldweatherrequiresspeciallydesignedequipment&vessels
• Inadequatemarinecharts
• Poorsoilcondi2ons(permafrost)
• Limitedports&longsupplylines
• Limitedemergencyresponsecapacity
• Highcostsandhighrisks
Thetyrannyofdistance,forspillresponse
EUlawmakersrejecttotalArc2cdrillingban.Instead,focuseson”icywaters”(defini6on?)
3/17/17
NorwayproposesnewArc2cshelfdrilling
HaraldPeHersen/Statoil
Russianoil&gasproduc2onshizstotheEastLNGprojectintheYamalPeninsula.RussiaaimstoincreaseshareofworldLNGmarketfrom5%to15%.
SergeiFadeichev/geHyimagesYamalLNGplantunderconstruc2on
RussiabuildsArc2cairdefenseshield
• Tobeestablishedin2018• Covers"fromNovayaZemlyatoChukotka”• ”Capableofdiscoveringanddestroyingenemyaircrazs,cruise
missilesanddrones.”• In2015,RussiaintroducedtheS-400Triumphan2-aircrazweaponto
theArc2c.• In2016,RussiadeployedBas2onmobilecoastalmissilesystems
RussiansubmarinefleettoexpandArc2cpresence
Russia’s“CampBarneo”
Thisyear’sBarneocampislocatedclosetotheNorthPoleat89º24’N135ºWPu2nmayvisitthecampbeforetheRussianArc2cForummee2nginArkhangelsk
Sweden,ra9ledbyRussia,bringsbackconscrip2on
F. Bensch
NorwayunveilsadvancedArc2cresearchvessel
O. Mikelborg
KronprinsHaakon100-mlong8,000tons
PolarStar
PolarSea
USicebreakers…
USCGawardsfivecontracts(totalof$20M)forheavypolaricebreakerdesignstudies
ThePolarStar,attheendofafive-monthoverhaulatVigorPortlandVIGORINDUSTRIAL2/28/17
USCGawardsfivecontracts(totalof$20M)forheavypolaricebreakerdesignstudies
Onevesselwillcost~$1B
USCGawardsfivecontracts(totalof$20M)forheavypolaricebreakerdesignstudies
Onevesselwillcost~$1B
PresidentTrump(maybe?)proposesa12%($1.3B)cuttoUSCG’sbudgetfor2018.WhatwillCongressdo?
Comparingthecostofsecurityhardware
DODplanningtospend$400Bover15yearsfor2,443F-35JointStrikeFighters
AirForceplanstobuy100newstealthbombers(B-21“Raiders”)foratleast$55B(replacesB-2)
USCGseeksuptosixpolaricebreakers.$6B(havedual-useasscien6ficresearchplaMorms)
Militaryspendingbycountry
USspendsmorethanthenext7countriescombined
“Climatechangeisimpac2ngstabilityinareasoftheworldwhereourtroopsareopera2ngtoday.ItisappropriatefortheCombatantCommandstoincorporatedriversofinstabilitythatimpactthesecurityenvironmentintheirareasintotheirplanning.”SecretaryofDefenseJamesMa9his
inwriHenresponsesa/er/17confirma6onhearing
Climatechangerecognizedasasecuritythreat
USNa2onalStrategyfortheArc2c
• AdvanceUnitedStatesSecurityInterests
• PursueResponsibleArc2cRegionStewardship
• StrengthenInterna2onalCoopera2on
h9ps://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2015/03/27/white-house-releases-implementa2on-report-na2onal-strategy-arc2c
U.S.Arc2cpolicyandplanning
• Arc2cRegionPolicyreaffirmed2009• Arc2cStrategy2013• Agencies’Arc2cScienceProgramPlan2013• Arc2cImplementa2onPlan2014• Arc2cExecu2veSteeringCommi9ee2015• GLACIERWhiteHouseConferenceAugust2015• Arc2cScienceMinisterialSeptember2016• IARPCFiveyearSciencePlan2017• Arc2cCouncilChairmanship2015-2017
TheWhiteHouseArc2cScienceMinisterialSeptember2016
1) Arc2cScienceChallengesandtheirRegional
andGlobalImplica2ons2)StrengtheningandIntegra2ngArc2c
Observa2onsandDataSharing3)ApplyingExpandedScien2ficUnderstanding
oftheArc2ctoBuildRegionalResilienceandShapeGlobalResponses
4)Arc2cScienceasaVehicleforSTEM
Educa2onandCi2zenEmpowerment
CouncilonForeignRela2onsArc2cStudy20171. Ra2fyUNCLOS2. Fund&maintainpolaricebreakers3. ImproveArc2cinfrastructure4. Strengthencoopera2onwithother
Arc2cna2ons5. Supportsustainabledevelopment
andAlaskaNa2vecommuni2es6. Fundscien2ficresearch
LawoftheSeaTreaty:unfinishedbusiness
• Na2onshave“exclusiveeconomiczone”to200milesoffshore
• Sovereignrightsovertheresourceson&undertheseabedin“extendedcon2nentalshelf”beyondEEZ.
• USSenatehasyetto
ra2fyUNCLOS(>160countrieshavedonesoincludingallotherArc2cna2ons)
• Intergovernmentalforumcreatedin1996
• 8na2ons,plus6“PermanentPar2cipants,”32observers
• Focusonsustainabledevelopment&environmentalprotec2on
• Promotescoopera2on,coordina2on,andinterac2on
• Producesreports,assessments,recommenda2ons,consensus-based
Interna2onalArc2ccoopera2on
Councilassessments,basedoninterna2onalscience
Arc2cmul2lateralagreementsadopted• Coopera2ononAeronau2calandMari2meSearchandRescue
• Coopera2ononMarineOilPollu2onPreparednessandResponse
• Interna2onalCoopera2ononScien2ficResearch(May2017)
USChairmanship:2015-2017
“OneArc6c:SharedOpportuni6es,Challenges,andResponsibili6es”
• Addressingclimatechange
• Arc2cOceanstewardship
• Improvingeconomicandlivingcondi2onsintheArc2c
U.S. Chairmanship Themes
ARCTIC COMMUNITIES
• Renewable Energy
• Water Sanitation and Health
• Water Resources Vulnerability Index
• Freshwater Security
• Telecommunications Infrastructure
• Suicide Prevention and Mental Wellness
ARCTIC OCEAN
• Search & Rescue Exercises
• Marine Environmental Protection
• Marine Protected Areas Network
• Arctic Ocean Cooperation
• Arctic Ocean Acidification
ARCTIC CLIMATE
• Short-lived Climate Pollutants
• Arctic Climate Adaptation and Resilience
• Pan-Arctic Digital Elevation Model
• Climate Indicator System
International science agreement
• Purpose is to enhance coop. to increase effectiveness & efficiency in developing scientific knowledge about the Arctic,
and facilitate access (people, equipment, samples, data) • 8 Arctic nations are signatories (the other 2 agreements), but an
article supports research with non-parties • Specific articles on traditional knowledge encouraging use,
communication, and participation • USARC designated “competent authority” as US POC.
Bloom USA/DOS Co-Chair
Barbin Russian Fed. Co-Chair
Falkner USA/NSF HOD
• RecommendspolicytothePresidentandCongressreflec2ngtheadviceofthescien2ficcommunity,andtheneedsofthecountry
• PromotesArc2cresearch,federalagencycoordina2onandinterna2onalcollabora2on
USArc2cResearchCommission
• EnvironmentalChange• Arc2cHumanHealth• BuiltEnvironment
• NaturalResources&RenewableEnergy
• Cultures&CommunityResilience
• Interna2onalScienceandResearchCollabora2on
ResearchPriori2es
USARC’sdaily“Arc2cUpdate”newsle9erSubscribeat:
www.arc2c.gov
AchangingArc2cma9erstothe…
• 4millionpeoplewholivethere• Consumersoffish,oil&gas,minerals• Companieswhodevelopitsresources• Explorers,tourists,andresearchers• Peoplewholiveinornearcoastalregions• Restoftheplanet’sweather• Stabilityofsocie2es
Thankyou
Credit: Bob Waldrop – Red Point Images
…andallice-dependentspecies(frompolarbearstopeople)
