The Race to Debase

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The Race to Debase

description

The Race to Debase. Gold and the Monetary Base. Is Gold a Currency?. “We see gold as an officially recognized form of money for one primary reason: it is widely held by most of the world’s larger central banks as a component of reserves .” – Deutsche Bank. Gold & Fiat Currency. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of The Race to Debase

Page 1: The Race to Debase

The Race to Debase

Page 2: The Race to Debase
Page 3: The Race to Debase

2-Jan-02

22-May-0

2

9-Oct-

02

26-Feb-03

16-Jul-0

3

3-Dec-0

3

21-Apr-0

4

8-Sep-04

26-Jan-05

15-Jun-05

2-Nov-0

5

22-Mar-0

6

9-Aug-0

6

27-Dec-0

6

16-May-0

7

3-Oct-

07

20-Feb-08

9-Jul-0

8

26-Nov-0

8

15-Apr-0

9

2-Sep-09

20-Jan-10

9-Jun-10

27-Oct-

10

16-Mar-1

1

3-Aug-1

1

21-Dec-1

1

9-May-1

2

26-Sep-12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Spot Gold Since January 2002

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2006-05-23

2006-09-12

2007-01-02

2007-04-24

2007-08-14

2007-12-04

2008-03-25

2008-07-15

2008-11-04

2009-02-24

2009-06-16

2009-10-06

2010-01-26

2010-05-18

2010-09-07

2010-12-28

2011-04-19

2011-08-09

2011-11-29

2012-03-20

2012-07-10

2012-10-30 $-

$500,000.00

$1,000,000.00

$1,500,000.00

$2,000,000.00

$2,500,000.00

$3,000,000.00

Gold Miners ETF (GDX) vs Spot Gold

5/23/06 - 11/12/12

GDXSpot Gold

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2009-11-11

2010-01-06

2010-03-03

2010-04-28

2010-06-23

2010-08-18

2010-10-13

2010-12-08

2011-02-02

2011-03-30

2011-05-25

2011-07-20

2011-09-14

2011-11-09

2012-01-04

2012-02-29

2012-04-25

2012-06-20

2012-08-15

2012-10-10 $750,000.00

$950,000.00

$1,150,000.00

$1,350,000.00

$1,550,000.00

$1,750,000.00

$1,950,000.00

Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) vs Spot Gold

11/11/09 - 11/12/12

GDXJSpot Gold

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Gold and the Monetary Base

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Is Gold a Currency?“We see gold as an officially recognized form of money for one primary reason: it is widely held by most of the world’s larger central banks as a component of reserves.” – Deutsche Bank

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Gold & Fiat Currency

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Demand for Gold Net central bank purchases in 2011 exceeded 455 tonnes, the largest increase since 1964. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central-bank purchases totaled 80.8 tonnes

in Q1 2012, about 7% of global demand. Over the past 12 months, net purchases have averaged almost 20% of total annual supply.

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09/20/1

2

09/23/1

2

09/26/1

2

09/29/1

2

10/02/1

2

10/05/1

2

10/08/1

2

10/11/1

2

10/14/1

2

10/17/1

2

10/20/1

2

10/23/1

2

10/26/1

2

10/29/1

2

11/01/1

2

11/04/1

2

11/07/1

2

11/10/1

2

11/13/1

2 $90,000,000.00

$92,000,000.00

$94,000,000.00

$96,000,000.00

$98,000,000.00

$100,000,000.00

$102,000,000.00

$104,000,000.00

KKM Hedged Gold vs Spot GoldSept. 20 – Nov. 13

Buy & Hold Gold KKM Hedged Gold Strategy

Hedging GoldWhy?• Increase profitability by knowing where to sell• Decrease volatility, making forecasting future profits easier• Create yield on gold while its being held

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Buy and Hold Gold

Gold Buy Write

Average Daily Return 0.06% 0.08%

Annualized Return 16.22% 21.10%

Standard Deviation 1.15% 0.79%

Annualized Standard Deviation 18.24% 12.57%

Standard Deviation of Negative Returns 0.87% 0.72%

Annualized Standard Deviation of Negative Returns

13.80% 11.50%

Max Daily Draw Down -5.47% -4.52%

Max Daily Draw Up 3.88% 2.71%

Peak-Trough Draw Down -19.03% -10.16%

Trough-Peak Draw Up 51.78% 54.69%

Total Sharpe Ratio* 0.06

0.11

Annualzied Sharpe Ratio* 0.89

1.68

*Riskless Rate = 0.0%

Total Sortino Ratio 0.07

0.12

Annualized Sortinio Ratio 1.18

1.83

09/10/1

0

10/14/1

0

11/17/1

0

12/21/1

0

01/24/1

1

02/27/1

1

04/02/1

1

05/06/1

1

06/09/1

1

07/13/1

1

08/16/1

1

09/19/1

1

10/23/1

1

11/26/1

1

12/30/1

1

02/02/1

2

03/07/1

2

04/10/1

2

05/14/1

2

06/17/1

2

07/21/1

2

08/24/1

2

09/27/1

2

10/31/1

2 $900,000.00

$1,000,000.00

$1,100,000.00

$1,200,000.00

$1,300,000.00

$1,400,000.00

$1,500,000.00

$1,600,000.00

KKM Hedged Gold vs B&H Hold Gold

Gold Buy-Write Strategy Buy and Hold Gold Stutland Gold Buy-Write Returns

Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2010 3.55% 3.41% 7.08%2011 9.28% 4.28% 10.99% 0.21% 26.74%2012 8.44% -2.47% 7.27% 0.47% 13.99%

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Questions?

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