THE PURSUIT OF UNDERSTANDING: MODELLING DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR IN DISEASE, LIFE & LOVE Brian Dangerfield...
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THE PURSUIT OF UNDERSTANDING:MODELLING DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR IN
DISEASE, LIFE & LOVE
Brian DangerfieldProfessor of Systems Modelling
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics
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System Dynamics modelling is based upon: * Concept of Information Feedback
* Delays
* Mapping Tools– Stock-Flow Diagrams– Influence Diagrams
* Equations linking variables to one another in the system
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Chou En-lai (1898-1976)
- asked for his assessment of the effects of the French Revolution
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•At what minute did most people enter the bar?
•At what minute did most people leave the bar?
•At what minute were most people in the bar?
•At what minute were fewest people in the bar?
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A stock-flow diagram
In the barEntering Leaving
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COCAINE PREVALENCE IN THE USA
Survey data suggested lifetime prevalence estimates were falling rapidly in the latter part of 1980’s.
Argument for more resources to support policies of interdiction & incarceration (rather than prevention).
But reported decline physically impossible (Homer);
-Survey collected biased data
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Current &Past Users(lifetime
prevalence)
first timecocaine use
death fromall causes
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Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information
7 + 2
George Miller, Psychological Review63:2 (1956) pp. 81-97
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5 variables A, B, C, D, and E
A= f (B,C,D)
B= f (C, E)
C= f (B,A)
D= f (C, E)
E= f (B,C)
A
B C
E
D
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Who are the most important people involved in securing
the safe passage of an aircraft from A to B?
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DYNAMICS OF AN EPIDEMIC
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MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL
Number of Year (quarter) of
Feature equations (approx) introduction
Project-based model 13 1987(2)
Variable infectivity 20 1989(1)
Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2)
Reporting delay & fitting model to data 70 1992(2)
Treatment effect & removals / additions 120 1997(4)
Health care sector 190 1998(4)
Introduction of HAART 300 1999(2)
Effects of regression in behaviour
after HAART (fitting to HIV data) 360 2001(3)
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Estimated Numbers & Percent on HAART at end-1998
Homo/bisexual men only
Estimated Number Percent of total
of Patients
U.K. 10734 67%
France 17500 64%
Germany 10359 69%
Netherlands 2069 76%
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FASHION ITEM DYNAMICS
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TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN ISLAND ECONOMIES
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Need a balance between economic gain and environmental conservation.
For: jobs; tax revenue; foreign currency earnings
Against: environmental pollution; higher cost of living; migration from agriculture to tourist services
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AN ISLAND TOURIST ECONOMY
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Environmental deterioration might affect the numbers and/or mix of tourist visitors— no rail links - congested motorways— Reina Sofia airport congestion— obsolete tourist facilities; poor professional training
Issues:— water supply— waste collection and treatment— communications— health care— noise pollution— public safety
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DIFFUSION OF AN INNOVATION
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Barriers to innovation:
–QWERTY Keyboard : Sholes vs Dvorak
–VHS video format vs Betamax
Sharp take-off innovations:
–CAT scanners
–Mobile phones
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“CLUBBED TO DEATH” (Student Direct Dec. 2002)
• Superclubs are suffering … Renaissance; Gatecrasher, Cream.
• How did things go so wrong?– Competition – more clubs and (now) bars.– Merchandising (In 2000, 5% of MoS
profits came from the clubs).– Big name DJ’s charged at least £10K per
set.– Higher door prices.
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visiting rateper club
spin-offmerchandising
(brand awareness)
average clubdoor price
new clubopenings DJ fees
new baropenings
numbers in clubper week
profits
-
+
+
-
++
+
+
- -
+ +
+1
2
34
5
6
+
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SARAWAK (EAST MALAYSIA)
• CORAS/CER Two year research project
• Economic model for the State Government
Model Purpose?
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Map of Borneo
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Sarawak Gross Domestic Product 1980 – 1999
(Constant Prices)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,000
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998
Years
GD
P R
M M
illio
ns
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DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: high-level maphigh-level map
Primary & SecondaryEducation
HigherEducation
(Arts)
HigherEducation(Science)
VocationalEducation
(Sub-professional)
R & D Centres
(Exemplars)
Primary Industry
(Agric; Forestry;Mining; M/facturing)
Knowledge-basedIndustry & Services
High Value-added; Biotech; Medicine
SecondaryIndustry
(Transport; Storage;Retail; Finance &
Insurance)
BroadbandCabling (Kms)
Number of PC’s
State Incentives
FederalFunds
ICT Infrastructure
StateRevenue
SUPPLY
DEMAND
COMMSINFRASTRUCTUREF
DI
Closures?
Leakage
Overseas?
Skills/Tech Transfer Money
Capital Equipment Human Resources
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Virtuous circles (positive loops): if ICT Resources (actual)>= ICT Resources (desired). Otherwise negative
loops come into play & positive loops shifted from growth to decay mode
K.Industries
ICT Resources(desired)
ICT Resources(actual)
Supply ofHigh-Tech Human
Capital
R&DCentres
+
+
++
+
-
-
+
++
+
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DYNAMICS OF A PARTNERSHIP
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Sustainable Futures:
Endgames:
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Sustainable Futures:
‘Golden Wedding’
0
Time
+
-
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Sustainable Futures:
‘Amo et Odi ’
0
+
-
Time
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Endgames:
‘We’re still good friends’
0
+
-
Time
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Endgames:
‘Mutual loathing’
0
+
-
Time
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EU Divorce Rates in 2001 (per '000 population)
EU Divorce Rates in 2001 (per '000 population)
2.6 2.72
2.6 2.9
0.9 1 0.7 0.7
1.9
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
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UK Marriages
406000
286000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1976 2001
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England & Wales Divorce Rates per '000 Married Population
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
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England & Wales Re-marriages of one or other partner (% of all marriages)
6
16
2327
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1964 1974 1984 1994
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Median duration of marriage at divorce (yr)
11.511.3
10.19.8
8.59
9.510
10.511
11.512
1963 1973 1983 1993
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Co-habitation (%) of single non-married women
8
31
05
1015
20253035
1979 1998
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• The UK picture??
• Fewer Sustainable Futures & more Endgames ??